Pollster Track Records
We include every scientific poll and exclude no one — then publish each firm's record so you can weight pollsters for yourself.
Overall 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014
Every pollster's general-election polls since 2014, scored against the certified results: average margin error, directional lean (positive = ran more Democratic than the result), and how often the poll's leader won. The 2026 column shows how far a firm's current polls run from the consensus average in the races it polls. Click a pollster for its full poll-by-poll record. Details on the methodology page.
High-volume pollsters (50+ scored polls)
Firms with at least 50 scored polls — enough history that the error columns mean something. The table opens with the lowest average error first. Compare these firms against each other.
| Pollster | Polls | Cycles | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | 2024 | 2026 vs. Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas Intel | 82 | 3 | 1.6 pts | D+0.5 | 87% | — | — | — | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 | — |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 63 | 3 | 3.2 pts | D+0.5 | 82% | — | — | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | — | — |
| InsiderAdvantage | 129 | 8 | 3.3 pts | D+0.2 | 73% | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | R+1.0 |
| Trafalgar Group partisan·R | 192 | 8 | 3.6 pts | R+2.0 | 72% | — | 3.4 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 1.8 | R+1.7 |
| Cygnal partisan·R | 65 | 8 | 3.9 pts | D+1.5 | 91% | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | R+2.6 |
| Research Co. | 59 | 4 | 4.0 pts | D+1.0 | 93% | — | — | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 | — | — |
| Mitchell Research | 51 | 6 | 4.2 pts | D+1.8 | 72% | 2.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 1.9 | R+5.2 |
| Emerson College | 417 | 8 | 4.3 pts | D+0.7 | 77% | 10.3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.7 | R+1.6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 277 | 7 | 4.3 pts | D+1.5 | 79% | 5.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | D+0.2 |
| Morning Consult | 204 | 5 | 4.4 pts | D+4.0 | 64% | — | 3.6 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.0 | — |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 108 | 7 | 4.4 pts | D+2.5 | 77% | 6.4 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 2.4 | — | R+0.6 |
| Big Village | 50 | 3 | 4.5 pts | D+2.8 | 53% | 4.9 | 3.6 | — | — | 7.5 | — | — |
| New York Times/Siena University | 246 | 6 | 4.5 pts | D+1.5 | 69% | — | 4.9 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 3.1 | R+2.1 |
| Suffolk University | 95 | 7 | 4.7 pts | D+1.9 | 77% | 5.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | — | D+2.2 |
| Marist | 140 | 6 | 4.8 pts | D+3.6 | 70% | 6.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 4.3 | D+4.5 |
| Data for Progress partisan·D | 155 | 5 | 4.8 pts | D+2.7 | 70% | — | — | — | 5.8 | 3.7 | 4.1 | D+1.7 |
| Public Policy Polling partisan·D | 235 | 9 | 5.0 pts | D+3.7 | 72% | 5.3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | R+0.8 |
| Civiqs | 73 | 3 | 5.0 pts | D+4.3 | 84% | — | — | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | — | — |
| Quinnipiac | 183 | 7 | 5.2 pts | D+3.4 | 72% | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | R+2.0 |
| YouGov | 443 | 7 | 5.2 pts | D+3.4 | 82% | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | — | D+0.6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 51 | 8 | 5.4 pts | D+3.4 | 84% | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 7.5 | 6.5 | — | — |
| Gravis Marketing | 168 | 6 | 5.5 pts | D+2.6 | 64% | 6.8 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | — | — | — |
| Ipsos | 367 | 6 | 5.5 pts | D+3.7 | 75% | 6.4 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | — |
| SSRS | 55 | 4 | 5.5 pts | D+4.6 | 75% | — | 15.0 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 1.8 | — | D+2.3 |
| SurveyUSA | 220 | 8 | 5.5 pts | D+2.8 | 79% | 6.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4.5 | D+4.4 |
| Global Strategy Group partisan·D | 50 | 6 | 5.6 pts | D+4.6 | 77% | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 3.1 | — | D+1.9 |
| Siena College | 68 | 5 | 5.6 pts | D+1.0 | 82% | 5.9 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 5.7 | — | R+2.9 |
| Change Research partisan·D | 152 | 4 | 5.6 pts | D+3.4 | 77% | — | — | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.2 | — | R+0.1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 130 | 7 | 5.7 pts | D+3.3 | 68% | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | — | — |
| Swayable | 68 | 1 | 5.8 pts | D+5.2 | 93% | — | — | — | 5.8 | — | — | — |
| Remington Research partisan·R | 80 | 6 | 6.0 pts | D+2.4 | 70% | 7.5 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | — |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 58 | 2 | 6.2 pts | D+6.2 | 74% | — | — | — | 6.2 | 5.6 | — | — |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 50 | 6 | 6.3 pts | D+5.3 | 81% | 5.6 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 1.4 | — | — |
| SurveyMonkey | 368 | 6 | 6.3 pts | D+5.2 | 87% | — | 6.8 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 0.6 | — | — |
| UNH | 100 | 6 | 6.7 pts | D+4.3 | 89% | 6.7 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 4.2 | R+0.4 |
Smaller-sample pollsters (under 50 scored polls)
Firms with fewer scored polls. A handful of polls can look artificially great or terrible — a tiny sample sorted by error is luck, not skill, which is why these firms stay in their own window rather than beside the high-volume firms above. This table also opens with the lowest average error first.
| Pollster | Polls | Cycles | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | 2024 | 2026 vs. Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNBC | 3 | 1 | 0.5 pts | R+0.5 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | 0.5 | — |
| KOB-TV/SurveyUSA | 3 | 1 | 0.7 pts | D+0.7 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | 0.7 | — |
| AmGreatness/NSOR | 4 | 1 | 1.0 pts | D+0.8 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | 1.0 | — |
| MinnPost | 3 | 1 | 1.1 pts | R+0.6 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | 1.1 | — |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 4 | 1 | 1.2 pts | D+0.8 | 100% | — | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| El Nuevo Día/The Research Office | 4 | 1 | 1.2 pts | — | 100% | — | — | — | 1.2 | — | — | — |
| BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | 5 | 1 | 1.3 pts | D+0.2 | 75% | — | — | — | — | 1.3 | — | — |
| Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson | 5 | 2 | 1.6 pts | R+0.1 | 100% | — | — | 2.6 | 1.3 | — | — | — |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 14 | 3 | 1.6 pts | R+0.6 | 57% | — | — | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 | — | — |
| John Zogby Strategies | 5 | 2 | 1.7 pts | D+0.6 | 80% | — | — | — | 1.0 | 4.7 | — | — |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 3 | 1 | 1.8 pts | R+1.8 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | 1.8 | — |
| Praecones Analytica | 3 | 1 | 1.8 pts | R+1.8 | 33% | — | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carolina Journal/Cygnal | 3 | 1 | 1.9 pts | D+1.9 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | 1.9 | — |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 10 | 1 | 1.9 pts | D+1.9 | 75% | — | — | — | — | — | 1.9 | R+2.3 |
| CVOTER | 8 | 1 | 2.0 pts | R+0.1 | 88% | — | 2.0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | 4 | 2 | 2.0 pts | D+1.6 | 75% | 2.9 | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 5 | 2 | 2.1 pts | D+0.6 | 75% | 1.4 | 2.2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Basswood Research | 3 | 1 | 2.2 pts | R+0.4 | 0% | — | — | — | 2.2 | — | — | — |
| Washington Post | 10 | 1 | 2.2 pts | D+2.2 | 50% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.2 | — |
| NBC News | 5 | 1 | 2.3 pts | D+2.1 | 50% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.3 | — |
| FOX News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research) | 24 | 1 | 2.3 pts | D+1.9 | 68% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.3 | R+0.9 |
| TIPP Insights partisan·R | 31 | 5 | 2.3 pts | D+1.3 | 67% | — | 1.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | D+2.2 |
| Yahoo News | 8 | 1 | 2.4 pts | D+1.9 | 29% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.4 | — |
| Blueprint Polling partisan·D | 3 | 2 | 2.4 pts | D+1.4 | 100% | — | — | 1.4 | — | 2.9 | — | Even |
| USA Today/Suffolk | 12 | 1 | 2.4 pts | D+2.3 | 50% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.4 | — |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 11 | 5 | 2.5 pts | D+1.4 | 82% | — | 0.7 | 0.8 | 3.4 | — | — | — |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | 3 | 1 | 2.5 pts | R+2.5 | 100% | — | — | — | 2.5 | — | — | — |
| Gallup | 3 | 2 | 2.5 pts | D+2.5 | 100% | 4.6 | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Kiley & Company | 3 | 1 | 2.6 pts | D+2.5 | 100% | 2.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dittman Research | 4 | 2 | 2.6 pts | D+1.1 | 100% | 2.9 | — | — | — | 2.5 | — | — |
| Echelon Insights partisan·R | 21 | 5 | 2.6 pts | D+0.9 | 73% | — | 4.4 | — | 2.3 | 3.1 | 1.9 | — |
| Wall Street Journal | 11 | 1 | 2.6 pts | D+1.5 | 56% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.6 | — |
| Data Orbital | 24 | 5 | 2.7 pts | D+0.8 | 87% | — | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.5 | — |
| CBS News | 20 | 4 | 2.7 pts | D+2.3 | 47% | 1.4 | 4.9 | 0.5 | — | — | 2.6 | — |
| Siena | 3 | 1 | 2.7 pts | D+2.7 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.7 | R+5.0 |
| Starboard Communications | 3 | 2 | 2.8 pts | D+2.8 | 100% | — | 3.3 | — | 2.6 | — | — | — |
| CNN | 19 | 1 | 2.9 pts | D+2.7 | 50% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.9 | — |
| GSG/NSOR | 7 | 1 | 2.9 pts | D+2.7 | 40% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.9 | — |
| 1892 Polling partisan·R | 4 | 3 | 2.9 pts | R+1.3 | 100% | — | — | 2.0 | 0.0 | 7.6 | — | — |
| East Carolina U. | 25 | 3 | 3.0 pts | D+2.4 | 79% | — | — | — | 5.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | — |
| HighGround Inc. | 10 | 4 | 3.0 pts | R+0.3 | 70% | — | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | — | — |
| University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | 6 | 1 | 3.1 pts | D+1.1 | 67% | — | — | — | 3.1 | — | — | — |
| Columbus Dispatch | 4 | 2 | 3.1 pts | D+3.1 | 75% | 1.6 | 4.6 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 10 | 4 | 3.2 pts | D+0.4 | 100% | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.2 | — | 1.9 | — | — |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 5 | 1 | 3.2 pts | D+3.2 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | 3.2 | — |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 7 | 6 | 3.2 pts | D+1.4 | 100% | 2.5 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 0.9 | — | — | — |
| Forbes/HarrisX | 9 | 1 | 3.2 pts | D+0.4 | 56% | — | — | — | — | — | 3.2 | — |
| UMass Lowell | 39 | 6 | 3.2 pts | D+2.4 | 83% | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 3.6 | — |
| New York Post | 4 | 1 | 3.2 pts | D+3.2 | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | 3.2 | — |
| The Winston Group | 11 | 5 | 3.3 pts | D+2.2 | 60% | 8.1 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 3.6 | — | — |
| Albuquerque Journal | 3 | 1 | 3.3 pts | D+3.3 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | 3.3 | — |
| Strategic National | 6 | 3 | 3.3 pts | D+3.1 | 75% | — | 0.7 | 6.0 | 3.3 | — | — | — |
| Pew Research | 13 | 6 | 3.4 pts | D+3.4 | 58% | 4.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 | — |
| Hoffman Research Group partisan·R | 4 | 3 | 3.4 pts | R+1.1 | 75% | — | 1.0 | 3.5 | — | 5.4 | — | — |
| Strategic Research Associates | 10 | 1 | 3.4 pts | D+1.8 | 70% | — | — | 3.4 | — | — | — | — |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 32 | 6 | 3.4 pts | D+2.8 | 78% | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 4.5 | — |
| Marquette | 33 | 6 | 3.4 pts | D+2.4 | 52% | 2.6 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | R+1.0 |
| Riley Research Associates | 3 | 2 | 3.4 pts | D+1.2 | 100% | — | 3.9 | 2.4 | — | — | — | — |
| DHM Research | 8 | 5 | 3.5 pts | R+1.0 | 88% | 2.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | — | R+0.5 |
| GreatBlue Research | 4 | 2 | 3.5 pts | D+0.3 | 75% | — | — | 3.0 | 4.9 | — | — | D+5.1 |
| Leger | 27 | 2 | 3.5 pts | D+0.3 | 92% | — | 3.5 | — | 3.5 | — | — | — |
| NPR/PBS/Marist | 7 | 1 | 3.5 pts | D+3.5 | 14% | — | — | — | — | — | 3.5 | — |
| Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | 5 | 3 | 3.5 pts | D+3.0 | 100% | 1.3 | 4.2 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 5 | 2 | 3.5 pts | D+3.0 | 100% | 2.3 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Frederick Polls | 8 | 4 | 3.5 pts | D+2.8 | 50% | 4.8 | 0.8 | — | 4.0 | 2.8 | — | — |
| Keating Research/Magellan Strategies | 3 | 2 | 3.5 pts | R+3.5 | 100% | — | — | 3.6 | — | 3.5 | — | — |
| St. Pete Polls | 32 | 5 | 3.5 pts | D+2.8 | 52% | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 7.5 | — | D+1.1 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 7 | 4 | 3.6 pts | D+2.6 | 86% | 1.6 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 1.3 | — | — | — |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | 4 | 2 | 3.6 pts | R+2.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 15 | 1 | 3.6 pts | R+1.2 | 93% | — | — | — | — | 3.6 | — | — |
| Slingshot Strategies partisan·D | 3 | 2 | 3.6 pts | D+2.8 | 100% | — | — | 4.8 | — | 1.3 | — | R+2.4 |
| AYTM | 4 | 1 | 3.6 pts | D+3.6 | 75% | — | — | — | 3.6 | — | — | — |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 14 | 3 | 3.6 pts | D+0.4 | 100% | — | — | 2.9 | 8.3 | 2.6 | — | — |
| Landmark Communications | 39 | 7 | 3.7 pts | D+2.7 | 66% | 6.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | — |
| MassINC Polling Group | 29 | 5 | 3.8 pts | D+0.7 | 71% | 4.7 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | — | D+2.0 |
| SocialSphere | 10 | 2 | 3.8 pts | R+0.4 | 78% | 3.7 | — | 4.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Muhlenberg College | 26 | 6 | 3.8 pts | D+2.7 | 70% | 6.6 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | — |
| Market Research Insight | 7 | 2 | 3.8 pts | D+3.7 | 100% | — | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — |
| New England College Polling Center | 32 | 1 | 3.8 pts | D+0.5 | 80% | 3.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 11 | 1 | 3.8 pts | D+3.8 | 10% | — | — | — | — | — | 3.8 | — |
| Elway Research | 8 | 4 | 3.9 pts | R+0.9 | 88% | 0.7 | 3.5 | 8.9 | — | 1.5 | — | — |
| Keating Research partisan·D | 9 | 4 | 3.9 pts | D+3.5 | 89% | 6.9 | 3.8 | — | — | 1.8 | 0.5 | — |
| Susquehanna | 42 | 6 | 3.9 pts | D+1.6 | 59% | 4.3 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.7 | — |
| Cook Political Report | 14 | 1 | 3.9 pts | D+3.9 | 17% | — | — | — | — | — | 3.9 | — |
| Ogden & Fry | 3 | 2 | 4.0 pts | R+3.7 | 100% | 0.7 | — | — | 10.6 | — | — | — |
| EPIC-MRA | 27 | 6 | 4.0 pts | D+2.7 | 85% | 2.7 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | R+2.7 |
| St. Anselm | 26 | 4 | 4.1 pts | D+1.0 | 92% | — | — | 5.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | D+1.4 |
| High Point University | 9 | 3 | 4.1 pts | D+4.1 | 63% | 2.1 | 4.9 | — | — | — | 3.2 | R+2.0 |
| KAConsulting | 12 | 2 | 4.1 pts | R+3.1 | 83% | — | — | — | — | 4.4 | — | — |
| Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 3 | 2 | 4.2 pts | D+4.2 | 67% | — | — | 3.5 | 5.4 | — | — | — |
| Harper Polling partisan·R | 19 | 4 | 4.2 pts | D+3.5 | 73% | 4.9 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | — | — | D+2.0 |
| University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 6 | 3 | 4.2 pts | D+1.5 | 83% | — | — | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 | — | — |
| WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA | 3 | 1 | 4.2 pts | D+4.2 | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.2 | — |
| Magellan Strategies | 16 | 3 | 4.3 pts | Even | 93% | 4.3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 31 | 5 | 4.3 pts | D+1.1 | 67% | — | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | D+7.1 |
| National Research | 25 | 5 | 4.3 pts | D+0.1 | 68% | 3.7 | 3.0 | 8.8 | 4.0 | — | — | — |
| Selzer & Co. | 35 | 5 | 4.3 pts | D+3.7 | 68% | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.8 | — | — |
| The Tyson Group partisan·R | 6 | 3 | 4.3 pts | D+3.6 | 67% | 1.9 | 2.9 | — | 12.6 | — | — | — |
| We Ask America | 20 | 4 | 4.3 pts | D+2.3 | 78% | 4.8 | 1.5 | — | 1.1 | — | — | — |
| Schoen Cooperman Research partisan·D | 3 | 2 | 4.3 pts | D+3.5 | 67% | — | — | — | — | 1.3 | — | — |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates partisan·R | 15 | 5 | 4.4 pts | R+1.5 | 71% | 3.0 | — | 5.3 | 0.4 | 4.2 | — | R+13.0 |
| Ward Research | 3 | 1 | 4.4 pts | D+1.6 | 100% | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 23 | 5 | 4.4 pts | R+2.2 | 91% | 2.5 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | — | Even |
| RRH Elections | 11 | 6 | 4.5 pts | R+1.2 | 89% | 1.1 | 1.1 | — | — | 5.2 | — | — |
| OpinionWorks | 3 | 3 | 4.5 pts | D+2.7 | 67% | 10.8 | — | — | 1.2 | 1.4 | — | — |
| Elon University | 13 | 3 | 4.5 pts | D+4.0 | 27% | 6.5 | 4.2 | — | — | — | 3.7 | — |
| Latino Decisions | 5 | 2 | 4.5 pts | D+4.5 | 100% | — | — | 6.4 | 3.2 | — | — | — |
| Strategies 360 | 16 | 5 | 4.6 pts | D+4.1 | 86% | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 6.5 | 2.5 | — | R+4.0 |
| Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications | 9 | 1 | 4.6 pts | D+4.6 | 100% | — | 4.6 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wick | 26 | 3 | 4.6 pts | R+3.8 | 60% | — | — | 3.2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | — | — |
| Christopher Newport Univ. | 26 | 8 | 4.6 pts | D+2.3 | 88% | 12.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 5.2 | — |
| Univ. of North Florida | 20 | 6 | 4.7 pts | D+4.7 | 58% | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 4.1 | — |
| Zogby Analytics | 4 | 2 | 4.7 pts | D+2.5 | 75% | 5.4 | — | — | 2.3 | — | — | — |
| co/efficient partisan·R | 24 | 5 | 4.7 pts | R+3.4 | 76% | — | — | — | 3.3 | 6.2 | 0.6 | R+3.5 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 35 | 3 | 4.7 pts | D+1.5 | 78% | 3.9 | — | 5.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Bloomberg | 29 | 1 | 4.7 pts | D+4.7 | 18% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.7 | — |
| 20/20 Insight | 3 | 2 | 4.8 pts | D+4.8 | 67% | — | 4.4 | 5.4 | — | — | — | Even |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 33 | 5 | 4.8 pts | D+4.2 | 71% | 7.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | — | — |
| Braun Research | 9 | 3 | 4.8 pts | D+0.4 | 100% | — | 4.0 | 2.8 | 7.7 | — | — | R+8.0 |
| Abt Associates | 7 | 3 | 4.9 pts | D+4.5 | 86% | 4.8 | 2.2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| RMG Research partisan·R | 48 | 2 | 5.0 pts | D+4.6 | 80% | — | — | — | 4.7 | 10.4 | — | Even |
| Bendixen & Amandi International partisan·D | 6 | 3 | 5.0 pts | D+2.6 | 60% | — | 3.0 | — | 9.7 | 8.5 | — | D+1.0 |
| Southern Media & Opinion Research | 3 | 1 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 100% | — | 5.1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Benítez | 4 | 1 | 5.1 pts | — | 50% | — | — | — | 5.1 | — | — | — |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 23 | 3 | 5.2 pts | D+1.0 | 65% | — | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | — | — | — |
| Spry Strategies | 3 | 2 | 5.2 pts | R+5.2 | 33% | — | — | — | 4.2 | — | — | — |
| Tulchin Research partisan·D | 13 | 4 | 5.2 pts | D+2.9 | 83% | — | 4.5 | 4.8 | 13.9 | 1.7 | — | R+0.4 |
| WPA Intelligence partisan·R | 20 | 5 | 5.2 pts | R+2.7 | 80% | 6.3 | 4.2 | 9.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | — | — |
| Florida Atlantic University | 15 | 5 | 5.2 pts | D+4.9 | 60% | — | 5.1 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | — |
| Lucid | 46 | 2 | 5.3 pts | D+5.0 | 84% | — | 5.3 | 2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Meeting Street Insights | 5 | 3 | 5.3 pts | D+2.5 | 60% | — | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.5 | — | — | — |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 5 | 3 | 5.3 pts | D+3.4 | 60% | 1.4 | — | 4.1 | — | 15.3 | — | — |
| Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | 6 | 1 | 5.3 pts | D+5.3 | 83% | — | — | — | 5.3 | — | — | — |
| Glengariff Group | 18 | 5 | 5.3 pts | D+3.3 | 89% | 2.7 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 4.1 | — | R+6.3 |
| Maine People's Resource Center partisan·D | 16 | 2 | 5.3 pts | D+2.8 | 88% | 7.7 | 4.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
| ActiVote | 8 | 1 | 5.3 pts | D+3.7 | 100% | — | — | — | — | 5.3 | — | — |
| Digital Research | 10 | 3 | 5.4 pts | D+5.3 | 90% | 2.1 | — | 4.8 | 7.1 | — | — | — |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 12 | 3 | 5.4 pts | D+5.4 | 92% | — | — | 7.9 | 5.5 | 4.2 | — | — |
| Franklin & Marshall | 22 | 6 | 5.4 pts | D+4.8 | 73% | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | — |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 11 | 3 | 5.4 pts | D+5.0 | 36% | — | 5.9 | — | 6.1 | 2.5 | — | — |
| JMC Analytics | 21 | 7 | 5.5 pts | D+2.1 | 95% | 10.0 | 3.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | — | — | — |
| Target Insyght | 11 | 4 | 5.5 pts | D+1.3 | 60% | 4.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | — | 7.5 | — | — |
| Brandwatch Qriously | 9 | 1 | 5.5 pts | D+5.4 | 100% | — | — | — | 5.5 | — | — | — |
| Fleming & Associates | 7 | 3 | 5.5 pts | R+5.1 | 86% | 1.5 | — | 5.3 | — | 7.9 | — | — |
| Øptimus Analytics | 25 | 4 | 5.5 pts | D+0.4 | 68% | 5.8 | — | 3.1 | 3.2 | — | — | — |
| AP-NORC | 4 | 3 | 5.5 pts | D+5.3 | 75% | — | — | 1.5 | 5.5 | 9.6 | — | — |
| Global Strategy Group/Lester & Associates | 3 | 2 | 5.5 pts | D+1.6 | 33% | 10.6 | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 17 | 4 | 5.6 pts | R+2.8 | 81% | 4.8 | 5.8 | 4.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Victory Research | 13 | 4 | 5.6 pts | R+0.4 | 100% | — | 3.3 | 0.3 | 6.3 | 12.0 | — | — |
| Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | 4 | 2 | 5.7 pts | D+5.7 | 50% | — | — | — | 3.4 | — | — | — |
| GBAO partisan·D | 46 | 6 | 5.7 pts | D+4.1 | 68% | 5.7 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 1.4 | — | D+1.4 |
| Tarrance Group | 28 | 5 | 5.7 pts | R+2.3 | 79% | 7.7 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 3.3 | — | R+9.0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies partisan·R | 44 | 5 | 5.7 pts | D+1.5 | 69% | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | — | Even |
| University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics | 5 | 1 | 5.8 pts | R+3.9 | 100% | — | — | 5.8 | — | — | — | — |
| GfK Group | 6 | 2 | 5.8 pts | D+5.0 | 60% | 4.0 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — |
| University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | 3 | 2 | 5.8 pts | D+5.8 | 100% | — | — | — | 7.8 | 4.8 | — | — |
| Data Targeting partisan·R | 7 | 4 | 5.8 pts | R+1.2 | 100% | 5.9 | 2.8 | — | 4.3 | 16.2 | — | — |
| Climate Nexus | 3 | 1 | 5.8 pts | D+5.8 | 100% | — | — | — | 5.8 | — | — | — |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 26 | 4 | 5.9 pts | D+5.7 | 59% | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.2 | — | 10.0 | — | — |
| OnMessage Inc. partisan·R | 19 | 3 | 5.9 pts | R+3.6 | 89% | — | — | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.5 | — | — |
| Targoz Market Research | 29 | 5 | 5.9 pts | D+2.5 | 78% | — | — | 7.2 | 5.4 | 4.8 | — | R+4.0 |
| University of Houston | 5 | 3 | 5.9 pts | D+5.9 | 100% | 5.4 | 6.0 | — | — | — | 6.0 | — |
| KFF | 14 | 4 | 5.9 pts | D+3.6 | 43% | — | 8.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 6.6 | — | — |
| Phillips Academy | 9 | 1 | 5.9 pts | R+4.3 | 67% | — | — | — | — | 5.9 | — | — |
| IMGE Insights | 3 | 1 | 5.9 pts | R+5.9 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roanoke College | 14 | 6 | 6.0 pts | D+3.2 | 85% | 13.7 | 4.9 | — | 2.4 | — | 2.8 | — |
| Patriot Polling | 10 | 1 | 6.0 pts | R+6.0 | 60% | — | — | — | — | 6.0 | — | — |
| Dixie Strategies | 11 | 2 | 6.0 pts | R+4.1 | 91% | — | 2.3 | 8.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Hellenthal & Associates | 4 | 1 | 6.0 pts | D+0.7 | 50% | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| The Castleton Polling Institute | 3 | 1 | 6.0 pts | D+6.0 | 100% | — | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Binder Research partisan·D | 7 | 3 | 6.1 pts | D+6.5 | 100% | 3.5 | — | — | 4.3 | 10.8 | — | — |
| TX Hispanic Policy Foundation | 3 | 2 | 6.1 pts | D+6.1 | 100% | — | — | — | — | 3.9 | 7.2 | — |
| American Viewpoint | 14 | 6 | 6.1 pts | R+2.2 | 85% | 0.5 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | — | — |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 13 | 5 | 6.1 pts | R+5.4 | 100% | 2.5 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | — | — |
| Impact Research partisan·D | 45 | 8 | 6.2 pts | D+5.4 | 75% | 7.9 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 7.9 | 4.2 | — | R+0.3 |
| Pan Atlantic | 22 | 5 | 6.3 pts | D+3.9 | 77% | 6.8 | — | 2.1 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | — |
| Zia Poll | 12 | 2 | 6.3 pts | R+5.2 | 92% | — | 6.2 | — | 6.8 | — | — | — |
| Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | 11 | 2 | 6.3 pts | D+6.3 | 64% | — | — | — | 5.5 | 7.6 | — | — |
| University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | 3 | 2 | 6.3 pts | D+6.3 | 67% | — | 11.1 | 3.9 | — | — | — | — |
| GQR partisan·D | 45 | 5 | 6.4 pts | D+5.0 | 59% | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 4.9 | — | D+2.2 |
| Wash Post/Univ. of Maryland | 6 | 5 | 6.4 pts | D+3.5 | 83% | 12.8 | 6.7 | 8.2 | — | 0.4 | 3.5 | — |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 23 | 2 | 6.4 pts | D+3.8 | 78% | 6.7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — |
| TargetPoint | 9 | 2 | 6.4 pts | R+0.8 | 75% | — | 12.7 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Cherry Communications partisan·R | 13 | 5 | 6.5 pts | Even | 38% | 3.4 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | — | — |
| American Research Group | 28 | 5 | 6.5 pts | D+4.5 | 92% | 4.9 | 2.6 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 2.2 | — | — |
| North Star Opinion Research | 5 | 2 | 6.5 pts | R+6.5 | 40% | 11.2 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 22 | 6 | 6.5 pts | D+3.6 | 90% | 7.9 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 6.7 | — | — | — |
| BK Strategies | 4 | 2 | 6.5 pts | R+0.9 | 75% | — | 3.8 | — | 14.6 | — | — | — |
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute | 10 | 3 | 6.5 pts | D+5.9 | 50% | 2.6 | 6.5 | 10.3 | — | — | — | — |
| ccAdvertising | 4 | 1 | 6.5 pts | R+3.3 | 75% | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | 6 | 4 | 6.5 pts | D+2.5 | 100% | 3.9 | 6.7 | — | 4.3 | — | — | — |
| Victory Insights partisan·R | 3 | 2 | 6.6 pts | D+6.1 | 100% | — | — | — | — | 9.6 | 0.8 | — |
| JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | 5 | 1 | 6.7 pts | R+5.5 | 80% | — | — | 6.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | 7 | 4 | 6.8 pts | R+2.2 | 100% | — | 5.7 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 9.6 | — | — |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 18 | 4 | 6.8 pts | D+4.2 | 100% | 2.8 | 9.4 | — | — | 6.4 | — | — |
| Normington, Petts & Associates partisan·D | 20 | 4 | 6.8 pts | D+5.4 | 65% | 6.3 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 9.4 | — | — | D+3.0 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 22 | 4 | 6.8 pts | D+6.7 | 82% | — | 12.8 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 8.8 | — | — |
| Montana State University Billings | 13 | 5 | 6.9 pts | D+6.3 | 92% | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 11.3 | 5.8 | — | — |
| Clout Research | 8 | 4 | 6.9 pts | R+5.3 | 71% | 10.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 | — | 7.9 | — | — |
| Alaska Survey Research partisan·D | 22 | 5 | 6.9 pts | D+2.5 | 82% | 12.8 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 4.3 | — | R+0.8 |
| Harvard-Harris | 22 | 1 | 6.9 pts | R+6.8 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | 6.9 | — |
| J.L. Partners partisan·R | 3 | 1 | 6.9 pts | D+6.9 | 100% | — | — | — | 6.9 | — | — | R+2.5 |
| Probolsky Research | 3 | 2 | 7.0 pts | R+9.1 | 67% | 4.9 | — | 8.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzales Research | 6 | 4 | 7.0 pts | R+2.5 | 67% | 6.8 | — | 6.4 | 8.1 | — | 7.5 | — |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research | 3 | 2 | 7.1 pts | D+6.1 | 67% | — | 19.2 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | 6 | 2 | 7.2 pts | D+6.1 | 83% | — | — | 1.7 | 10.0 | — | — | — |
| TargetSmart | 9 | 3 | 7.3 pts | D+7.3 | 67% | — | 7.3 | 7.9 | 5.8 | — | — | Even |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 5 | 3 | 7.3 pts | D+4.8 | 60% | 10.1 | 2.3 | — | — | — | — | — |
| McLaughlin & Associates partisan·R | 22 | 5 | 7.4 pts | R+3.8 | 64% | 4.7 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 4.1 | — | R+5.3 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 27 | 5 | 7.5 pts | D+6.0 | 54% | 8.1 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 4.5 | — | — |
| Moore Information Group | 22 | 5 | 7.5 pts | R+2.0 | 65% | 9.9 | 5.8 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 6.6 | — | — |
| Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration | 4 | 1 | 7.5 pts | D+7.5 | 100% | — | — | — | 7.5 | — | — | — |
| Expedition Strategies partisan·D | 5 | 3 | 7.5 pts | D+4.8 | 40% | — | 8.9 | 2.7 | 8.2 | — | — | D+2.3 |
| Citizen Data | 12 | 1 | 7.6 pts | D+7.6 | 50% | — | — | — | 7.6 | — | — | — |
| St. Cloud State University | 7 | 4 | 7.6 pts | D+7.6 | 100% | — | 9.5 | 3.6 | 9.8 | 13.3 | — | — |
| MRG Research | 10 | 3 | 7.6 pts | R+6.9 | 89% | 8.1 | — | 8.0 | 3.5 | — | — | — |
| Y2 Analytics | 13 | 4 | 7.7 pts | D+2.9 | 92% | 13.9 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 | — | — | — |
| University of Delaware | 13 | 6 | 7.7 pts | D+7.7 | 100% | 11.5 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.3 | — |
| Federalist/Susquehanna | 3 | 1 | 7.8 pts | D+7.8 | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.8 | — |
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 9 | 5 | 7.9 pts | D+4.8 | 100% | 3.5 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 13.7 | 7.3 | — | — |
| Hickman Analytics | 7 | 2 | 8.0 pts | D+6.7 | 43% | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| APC Research | 4 | 1 | 8.0 pts | D+8.0 | 75% | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 10 | 3 | 8.1 pts | D+7.6 | 89% | — | 7.7 | 5.0 | 12.1 | — | — | — |
| Axis Research | 3 | 3 | 8.3 pts | R+11.1 | 50% | — | — | 3.6 | — | 2.6 | — | — |
| Hampton University Center for Public Policy | 4 | 2 | 8.3 pts | R+5.0 | 50% | — | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Opinium | 8 | 2 | 8.3 pts | D+8.3 | 75% | — | — | — | 7.4 | 11.1 | — | — |
| FM3 Research partisan·D | 7 | 5 | 8.4 pts | D+6.6 | 71% | 2.1 | 16.0 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 1.4 | — | — |
| Lighthouse Research | 5 | 1 | 8.4 pts | D+7.3 | 80% | — | — | — | 8.4 | — | — | Even |
| Lake Research Partners partisan·D | 15 | 5 | 8.5 pts | D+7.4 | 93% | 7.5 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 30.5 | — | Even |
| brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 5 | 2 | 8.5 pts | D+8.2 | 40% | — | — | — | 10.5 | 0.8 | — | — |
| Colby College | 11 | 1 | 8.8 pts | D+7.7 | 64% | — | — | — | 8.8 | — | — | — |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 9 | 3 | 8.9 pts | D+8.9 | 50% | 5.1 | 12.6 | — | 11.8 | — | — | — |
| Hendrix College | 20 | 5 | 9.0 pts | D+8.0 | 95% | 9.9 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 17.7 | — | D+6.3 |
| Mellman Group | 10 | 4 | 9.0 pts | D+7.7 | 40% | 14.2 | — | 5.6 | 1.3 | 9.6 | — | — |
| Victoria Research & Consulting | 4 | 4 | 9.1 pts | D+9.1 | 50% | 14.1 | — | 6.5 | 13.6 | 2.2 | — | — |
| GS Strategy Group | 4 | 3 | 9.3 pts | R+9.3 | 100% | — | 5.6 | 24.6 | 1.3 | — | — | — |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | 5 | 4 | 9.4 pts | D+6.9 | 100% | — | — | 6.2 | 10.9 | — | 14.1 | — |
| Center Street PAC | 15 | 1 | 9.4 pts | D+10.0 | 80% | — | — | — | — | 9.4 | — | — |
| Beacon Research partisan·D | 7 | 2 | 9.5 pts | D+7.9 | 100% | — | — | — | 9.7 | 7.9 | — | — |
| Strategy Research | 6 | 2 | 9.5 pts | R+5.6 | 17% | — | 11.7 | — | — | — | — | — |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 3 | 2 | 9.6 pts | D+9.6 | 33% | 4.7 | 12.1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Repass | 9 | 5 | 9.7 pts | D+9.0 | 100% | — | 4.2 | 1.4 | 21.1 | 6.9 | — | — |
| Fort Hays St. University | 7 | 5 | 9.8 pts | R+1.2 | 86% | 6.0 | 16.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | — | 11.1 | — |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 15 | 3 | 9.9 pts | D+7.2 | 67% | — | — | 2.8 | 3.7 | 19.8 | — | — |
| DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center | 3 | 2 | 9.9 pts | D+9.9 | 100% | — | — | 1.1 | 14.3 | — | — | — |
| Carroll Strategies | 5 | 1 | 9.9 pts | R+9.9 | 80% | — | — | 9.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | 4 | 3 | 9.9 pts | D+9.2 | 75% | 11.8 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| SoonerPoll.com | 26 | 5 | 10.1 pts | D+7.8 | 81% | 4.8 | 13.7 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 18.3 | — | — |
| RABA Research | 7 | 4 | 10.2 pts | D+10.2 | 43% | — | 6.4 | 3.7 | 13.4 | 8.0 | — | — |
| African American Research Collaborative | 3 | 1 | 10.5 pts | D+10.5 | 100% | — | — | — | — | 10.5 | — | — |
| WT&S Consulting | 3 | 1 | 10.6 pts | R+10.6 | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| VCreek/AMG | 9 | 2 | 11.0 pts | D+2.6 | 56% | — | — | 15.9 | 9.6 | — | — | — |
| Amber Integrated | 16 | 2 | 11.0 pts | D+10.3 | 88% | — | — | — | 8.5 | 11.6 | — | — |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 12 | 3 | 11.4 pts | D+4.2 | 83% | — | — | 5.4 | 19.6 | 10.7 | — | — |
| University of Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center | 7 | 3 | 11.5 pts | D+11.5 | 100% | — | 12.2 | — | 15.2 | 5.2 | — | — |
| DFM Research | 16 | 5 | 11.5 pts | D+9.7 | 87% | 10.7 | 12.7 | 4.1 | 14.1 | 20.6 | — | — |
| EMC Research partisan·D | 5 | 2 | 12.1 pts | D+12.1 | 50% | 11.5 | — | — | 12.2 | — | — | — |
| Sachs Media | 3 | 1 | 12.1 pts | D+12.1 | 100% | — | — | — | — | 12.1 | — | — |
| Ascend Action | 12 | 1 | 12.4 pts | D+12.0 | 75% | — | — | — | — | 12.4 | — | — |
| Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | 6 | 2 | 12.9 pts | D+12.9 | 100% | — | — | — | 10.9 | 14.9 | — | — |
| Bruno Political Consulting | 3 | 1 | 13.0 pts | D+13.0 | 67% | — | — | — | — | 13.0 | — | — |
| Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs | 3 | 1 | 13.3 pts | D+13.3 | 33% | — | 13.3 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Middle Tennessee State University | 3 | 2 | 13.5 pts | D+13.5 | 100% | 13.2 | 14.0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | 8 | 1 | 14.8 pts | R+14.8 | 100% | — | — | 14.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 8 | 3 | 15.8 pts | D+15.8 | 100% | 14.1 | 19.6 | — | 12.8 | — | — | — |
| Brigham Young University Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy | 4 | 1 | 16.4 pts | D+16.4 | 75% | 16.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Opinion Research Associates | 6 | 1 | 18.2 pts | D+18.2 | 0% | 18.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jayhawk Consulting Services | 4 | 3 | 28.2 pts | D+28.2 | 75% | 42.9 | — | 28.8 | — | 12.3 | — | — |
How to read this table
- Avg. Error — the average number of points a firm's polls missed the final margin by, in either direction. Lower is better; strong national firms land in the 3–5 point range.
- Lean (house effect) — the direction of the average miss. A firm can have a large error but no lean (misses in both directions) or a small error with a consistent lean.
- Winner Called — how often the poll's leader actually won. Blowout races inflate this; read it alongside Avg. Error.
- Year columns — that cycle's average error (hover for the poll count). Errors vary by year for the whole industry: 2018 was polling's good year, 2016 and 2020 its hard ones.
- 2026 vs. Consensus — results aren't in yet, so current polls are measured against the PollingSource average in the races each firm polls. It shows house lean, not accuracy.
- Why two tables? Small samples mislead: a firm with a handful of scored polls can look artificially great or terrible, and one combined ranking put those firms at the top of every error sort. Firms with 50+ scored polls compare against each other; smaller-sample firms compare in their own window. Weight the poll counts as much as the error columns either way.
None of these numbers change what enters the PollingSource average — every scientific poll counts, including every firm on this page. That's the point: our methodology is inclusion plus transparency, not silent exclusion.
Scoring covers each full cycle with no date cutoffs (2024's pre-July Biden–Trump polls are measured against the November result). Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource against certified results.