Harris Insights & Analytics
63 scored general-election polls (2018–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 3.4 pts | R+3.4 | 100% |
| 2020 | 21 | 2.7 pts | D+2.6 | 90% |
| 2018 | 41 | 3.4 pts | R+0.4 | 78% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-12 | National Generic Ballot | R+6.0 | R+2.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-11-01 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-11-01 | National President | D+4.0 | D+4.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | PA President | D+5.0 | D+1.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-28 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-27 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | National President | D+6.0 | D+4.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | MI Senate | D+7.0 | D+1.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | PA President | D+5.0 | D+1.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | MI President | D+11.0 | D+2.8 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | FL President | Even | R+3.4 | 3.4 | — |
| 2020-10-14 | National President | D+4.0 | D+4.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | National President | D+7.0 | D+4.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-05 | National President | D+5.0 | D+4.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | National President | D+7.0 | D+4.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | National President | D+5.0 | D+4.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-23 | National President | D+4.0 | D+4.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-20 | National President | D+5.0 | D+4.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | National President | D+6.0 | D+4.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-07 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-05 | National Generic Ballot | D+10.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | NV Governor | D+0.2 | D+4.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | FL Governor | D+2.4 | R+0.4 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-04 | AZ Governor | R+14.3 | R+14.2 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | NV Senate | D+2.3 | D+5.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | MO Senate | R+0.8 | R+5.8 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | IN Senate | R+1.1 | R+5.9 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | FL Senate | R+0.6 | R+0.1 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | AZ Senate | D+4.6 | D+2.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | MT Senate | D+7.8 | D+3.6 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-02 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-02 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+8.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | NV Governor | R+3.4 | D+4.1 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-01 | FL Governor | D+4.7 | R+0.4 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-01 | AZ Governor | R+19.9 | R+14.2 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | NV Senate | R+0.8 | D+5.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-01 | MO Senate | R+0.9 | R+5.8 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | IN Senate | D+2.4 | R+5.9 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-01 | FL Senate | R+2.6 | R+0.1 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | AZ Senate | R+5.6 | D+2.3 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-31 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+8.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | MT Senate | D+6.7 | D+3.6 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | MT Senate | D+7.0 | D+3.6 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | National Generic Ballot | D+9.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | NV Governor | D+2.1 | D+4.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | FL Governor | D+2.3 | R+0.4 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-27 | AZ Governor | R+22.2 | R+14.2 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | NV Senate | D+2.9 | D+5.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | MO Senate | D+1.9 | R+5.8 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-27 | IN Senate | R+0.5 | R+5.9 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | FL Senate | R+0.9 | R+0.1 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | AZ Senate | R+4.8 | D+2.3 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-23 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | D+8.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-19 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+8.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-06 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+8.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-02 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-29 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-26 | National Generic Ballot | D+9.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-21 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-11 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+8.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.