Pollster Track Records — 2022
Overall 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014
Every firm's 2022 general-election polls scored against the certified results: average margin error, directional lean (positive = ran more Democratic than the result), and how often the poll's leader won. Firms with fewer than 3 scored polls aren't listed. Method details on the methodology page.
| Pollster | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 86 | 3.8 pts | R+0.6 | 85% |
| Trafalgar Group partisan·R | 61 | 5.4 pts | R+4.9 | 70% |
| Data for Progress partisan·D | 60 | 3.7 pts | R+1.5 | 77% |
| YouGov | 42 | 3.3 pts | D+1.7 | 74% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 40 | 4.7 pts | R+3.2 | 72% |
| Cygnal partisan·R | 33 | 3.8 pts | R+0.1 | 85% |
| Civiqs | 32 | 4.8 pts | D+3.7 | 93% |
| Morning Consult | 29 | 6.1 pts | D+6.1 | 0% |
| SurveyUSA | 27 | 3.4 pts | D+1.3 | 100% |
| Marist | 24 | 3.8 pts | D+2.7 | 91% |
| Siena College | 23 | 5.7 pts | D+4.4 | 77% |
| Research Co. | 21 | 3.4 pts | Even | 89% |
| Suffolk University | 21 | 4.2 pts | R+0.1 | 95% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 18 | 2.5 pts | R+0.2 | 76% |
| UNH | 17 | 5.8 pts | R+0.8 | 100% |
| Wick | 17 | 5.4 pts | R+4.8 | 63% |
| Center Street PAC | 15 | 9.4 pts | D+10.0 | 80% |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 15 | 3.6 pts | R+1.2 | 93% |
| co/efficient partisan·R | 14 | 6.2 pts | R+6.1 | 62% |
| Ipsos | 14 | 4.0 pts | D+3.9 | 31% |
| New York Times/Siena University | 14 | 1.9 pts | D+0.2 | 91% |
| Rasmussen Reports | 14 | 3.6 pts | R+3.0 | 86% |
| Amber Integrated | 13 | 11.6 pts | D+10.7 | 85% |
| Ascend Action | 12 | 12.4 pts | D+12.0 | 75% |
| Public Policy Polling partisan·D | 12 | 3.6 pts | R+0.2 | 82% |
| Quinnipiac | 12 | 4.1 pts | D+3.0 | 100% |
| SSRS | 12 | 1.9 pts | D+0.1 | 83% |
| Remington Research partisan·R | 11 | 4.0 pts | R+2.1 | 73% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates partisan·R | 10 | 4.2 pts | R+3.4 | 89% |
| KAConsulting | 10 | 4.4 pts | R+4.3 | 90% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 10 | 3.7 pts | D+0.2 | 60% |
| Patriot Polling | 10 | 6.0 pts | R+6.0 | 60% |
| OnMessage Inc. partisan·R | 9 | 5.5 pts | R+4.1 | 100% |
| Phillips Academy | 9 | 5.9 pts | R+4.3 | 67% |
| ActiVote | 8 | 5.3 pts | D+3.7 | 100% |
| Echelon Insights partisan·R | 8 | 3.1 pts | D+0.5 | 50% |
| St. Anselm | 8 | 4.5 pts | R+4.0 | 75% |
| Susquehanna | 8 | 2.5 pts | R+1.3 | 71% |
| Targoz Market Research | 8 | 4.8 pts | R+4.8 | 63% |
| East Carolina U. | 7 | 1.1 pts | R+0.6 | 100% |
| Global Strategy Group partisan·D | 7 | 3.1 pts | R+1.8 | 83% |
| GQR partisan·D | 7 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 60% |
| Marquette | 7 | 3.0 pts | R+0.5 | 83% |
| Moore Information Group | 7 | 6.6 pts | R+6.6 | 33% |
| Impact Research partisan·D | 6 | 4.2 pts | D+2.5 | 100% |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 6 | 19.8 pts | D+19.8 | 67% |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 6 | 1.6 pts | R+0.7 | 67% |
| Alaska Survey Research partisan·D | 5 | 4.3 pts | D+3.2 | 100% |
| Big Village | 5 | 7.5 pts | D+7.5 | 0% |
| BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | 5 | 1.3 pts | D+0.2 | 75% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 5 | 1.4 pts | R+0.5 | 100% |
| Landmark Communications | 5 | 1.4 pts | D+0.5 | 80% |
| McLaughlin & Associates partisan·R | 5 | 4.1 pts | R+4.1 | 80% |
| Mitchell Research | 5 | 6.2 pts | R+3.1 | 80% |
| Muhlenberg College | 5 | 2.1 pts | R+2.1 | 100% |
| Selzer & Co. | 5 | 3.8 pts | D+3.8 | 80% |
| WPA Intelligence partisan·R | 5 | 1.5 pts | D+0.4 | 80% |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 4 | 8.8 pts | D+8.8 | 50% |
| Change Research partisan·D | 4 | 5.2 pts | D+3.8 | 100% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 4 | 10.0 pts | D+10.0 | 33% |
| EPIC-MRA | 4 | 1.7 pts | D+1.7 | 100% |
| Franklin & Marshall | 4 | 2.7 pts | D+0.9 | 100% |
| Glengariff Group | 4 | 4.1 pts | R+0.6 | 100% |
| Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | 4 | 7.6 pts | D+7.6 | 0% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 4 | 2.1 pts | D+2.1 | 67% |
| Hendrix College | 4 | 17.7 pts | D+17.7 | 100% |
| HighGround Inc. | 4 | 2.0 pts | R+1.8 | 75% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 4 | 2.5 pts | R+0.2 | 100% |
| SoonerPoll.com | 4 | 18.3 pts | D+18.3 | 50% |
| UMass Lowell | 4 | 1.4 pts | D+0.1 | 100% |
| African American Research Collaborative | 3 | 10.5 pts | D+10.5 | 100% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 3 | 10.7 pts | R+10.7 | 67% |
| Bruno Political Consulting | 3 | 13.0 pts | D+13.0 | 67% |
| Data Orbital | 3 | 3.4 pts | R+3.4 | 33% |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 3 | 4.5 pts | R+3.5 | 50% |
| Dittman Research | 3 | 2.5 pts | D+2.5 | 100% |
| Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | 3 | 14.9 pts | D+14.9 | 100% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 3 | 6.5 pts | D+6.1 | 100% |
| Pan Atlantic | 3 | 4.6 pts | D+2.4 | 100% |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 3 | 4.2 pts | D+4.2 | 100% |
| Public Opinion Strategies partisan·R | 3 | 5.0 pts | D+5.0 | 33% |
| RRH Elections | 3 | 5.2 pts | R+5.2 | 100% |
| Sachs Media | 3 | 12.1 pts | D+12.1 | 100% |
| Tarrance Group | 3 | 3.3 pts | R+1.5 | 100% |
| Univ. of North Florida | 3 | 6.6 pts | D+6.6 | 100% |
Scored-poll data for 2022 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); scoring computed by PollingSource.