SurveyUSA
220 scored general-election polls (2014–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | 4.5 pts | D+4.5 | 0% |
| 2022 | 27 | 3.4 pts | D+1.3 | 100% |
| 2020 | 43 | 4.5 pts | D+3.0 | 85% |
| 2018 | 30 | 5.2 pts | R+1.9 | 75% |
| 2017 | 2 | 7.1 pts | D+7.1 | 0% |
| 2016 | 42 | 5.4 pts | D+2.3 | 86% |
| 2015 | 2 | 13.7 pts | D+13.7 | 0% |
| 2014 | 73 | 6.8 pts | D+5.1 | 69% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | CA Governor | 507 LV | Xavier Becerra 48.00% – Steve Hilton 35.00% | D+13.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | CA Governor | 742 LV | Xavier Becerra 55.00% – Steve Hilton 33.00% | D+22.0 |
| 2026-09-16 | MN Senate | 654 LV | Peggy Flanagan 42.00% – Michele Tafoya 42.00% | Even |
| 2026-09-16 | MN Governor | 654 LV | Amy Klobuchar 47.00% – Lisa Demuth 40.00% | D+7.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | NE Senate | 503 LV | Dan Osborn 46.00% – Pete Ricketts 42.00% | D+4.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | NE-2 House | 182 LV | Denise Powell 46.00% – Brinker Harding 42.00% | D+4.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | NE Governor | 503 LV | Lynne Walz 35.00% – Jim Pillen 43.00% | R+8.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-04 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-28 | GA Senate | D+3.0 | D+2.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-31 | GA Governor | R+7.0 | R+7.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-31 | GA Senate | D+6.0 | D+1.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-30 | ME-2 House | D+3.0 | D+6.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-30 | ME Governor | D+6.0 | D+13.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-29 | CA-49 House | D+6.0 | D+5.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-29 | MO Senate | R+9.0 | R+13.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | MN Governor | D+8.0 | D+7.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-23 | NC-13 House | D+1.0 | D+3.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-23 | NM Governor | D+7.0 | D+6.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-22 | MN-1 House | R+9.0 | R+11.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-17 | CT Governor | D+18.0 | D+11.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | NY Governor | D+6.0 | D+7.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | WA Senate | D+8.0 | D+14.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | NY Senate | D+14.0 | D+14.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-15 | MN-2 House | D+1.0 | D+5.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-09 | CA Senate | D+22.0 | D+21.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-09 | CA Governor | D+22.0 | D+18.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-09 | CA Senate | D+22.0 | D+22.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-03 | NM Governor | D+16.0 | D+6.4 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-02 | MN Governor | D+10.0 | D+7.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-02 | GA Governor | R+2.0 | R+7.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-02 | GA Senate | D+12.0 | D+1.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-30 | NC Senate | R+1.0 | R+3.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-16 | MO Senate | R+11.0 | R+13.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-10 | NM Governor | D+12.0 | D+6.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-07-28 | MN-1 House | R+8.0 | R+4.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-18 | GA Senate | D+5.0 | D+1.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-18 | GA Senate | D+7.0 | D+2.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-11-29 | GA Senate | D+2.0 | D+1.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-11-29 | GA Senate | D+7.0 | D+2.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | M2 President | D+3.0 | R+7.4 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-25 | M1 President | D+19.0 | D+23.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | NC Governor | D+11.0 | D+4.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.8 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-25 | MN Senate | D+3.0 | D+5.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | ME Senate | D+2.0 | R+8.6 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-25 | NC President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2020-10-25 | MN President | D+5.0 | D+7.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | ME President | D+13.0 | D+9.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | CA-50 House | R+11.0 | R+7.9 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | MN Senate | D+1.0 | D+5.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | MN President | D+6.0 | D+7.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | CA-53 House | D+13.0 | D+19.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | WA Governor | D+14.0 | D+13.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | CA-49 House | D+20.0 | D+6.3 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | NC Governor | D+13.0 | D+4.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | IN Governor | R+30.0 | R+24.5 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | NC Senate | D+10.0 | R+1.8 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-10 | GA Senate | R+3.0 | R+1.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | WA President | D+21.0 | D+19.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | NC President | D+5.0 | R+1.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-10 | IN President | R+7.0 | R+16.1 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | GA President | D+2.0 | D+0.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | MN Senate | D+7.0 | D+5.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | CO Senate | D+9.0 | D+9.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | MN President | D+7.0 | D+7.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | CO President | D+10.0 | D+13.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-27 | CA President | D+27.0 | D+29.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-20 | CA-53 House | D+14.0 | D+19.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-13 | CA-49 House | D+12.0 | D+6.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | NC Governor | D+7.0 | D+4.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | NC Senate | D+7.0 | R+1.8 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-12 | NC President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2020-09-06 | CA-50 House | R+1.0 | R+7.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | MN Senate | D+10.9 | D+5.2 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | MN President | D+8.7 | D+7.1 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | CA Governor | D+15.0 | D+23.9 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | CA Senate | D+14.0 | D+8.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | CA-49 House | D+7.0 | D+12.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | MN Governor | D+8.0 | D+11.4 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | MN Senate | D+8.0 | D+10.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | MN Senate | D+23.0 | D+24.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | NY-19 House | Even | D+8.1 | 8.1 | — |
| 2018-10-27 | CA-50 House | R+3.0 | R+3.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | NC-2 House | R+9.0 | R+5.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | FL Governor | D+7.0 | R+0.4 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-20 | FL Senate | D+8.0 | R+0.1 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-18 | MN-1 House | D+2.0 | R+0.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-14 | IN Senate | D+1.0 | R+5.9 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-13 | CA Governor | D+17.0 | D+23.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | CA Senate | D+14.0 | D+8.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-11 | NC-13 House | R+3.0 | R+6.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-11 | FL-15 House | Even | R+6.0 | 6.0 | — |
| 2018-10-05 | GA Governor | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-04 | FL-9 House | D+8.0 | D+16.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-26 | MN-3 House | D+5.0 | D+11.4 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-22 | CA-22 House | R+14.0 | R+5.4 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-22 | CA-21 House | R+11.0 | D+0.8 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-20 | MN-2 House | D+3.0 | D+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-16 | CA-16 House | D+11.0 | D+15.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-08 | FL Governor | D+4.0 | R+0.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-08 | FL Senate | R+2.0 | R+0.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-07 | NC-2 House | D+1.0 | R+5.5 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-07 | MN Governor | D+7.0 | D+11.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-07 | MN Senate | D+9.0 | D+10.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-07 | MN Senate | D+15.0 | D+24.1 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2017-06-09 | GA-6 House | Even | R+3.6 | 3.6 | — |
| 2017-05-18 | GA-6 House | D+7.0 | R+3.6 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | WA President | D+12.0 | D+15.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | WA Senate | D+12.0 | D+18.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | WA Governor | D+7.0 | D+8.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-30 | NC President | R+7.0 | R+3.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-30 | CA President | D+21.0 | D+30.1 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-30 | CA Senate | D+20.0 | D+23.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-30 | NC Senate | R+6.0 | R+5.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-30 | NC Governor | D+1.0 | D+0.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | NY-19 House | D+3.0 | R+3.2 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-28 | KS President | R+11.0 | R+20.6 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-28 | KS Senate | R+24.0 | R+29.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-26 | GA President | R+7.0 | R+5.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-24 | MN President | D+10.0 | D+1.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-22 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+1.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | FL Senate | R+4.0 | R+7.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-18 | MN-8 House | R+4.0 | D+0.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-16 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-16 | NC Senate | R+2.0 | R+5.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-16 | NC Governor | D+2.0 | D+0.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-15 | MN-2 House | D+5.0 | R+1.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-14 | CA President | D+26.0 | D+30.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | CA Senate | D+21.0 | D+23.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-13 | KS President | R+11.0 | R+20.6 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-13 | National President | D+10.0 | D+2.2 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-13 | KS Senate | R+25.0 | R+29.9 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | MN-3 House | R+11.0 | R+13.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | TX President | R+4.0 | R+9.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | OR President | D+10.0 | D+11.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | OR Senate | D+22.0 | D+23.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | OR Governor | D+4.0 | D+7.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-06 | CA-17 House | D+1.0 | D+22.0 | 21.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-01 | NC Senate | R+2.0 | R+5.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | NC Governor | D+4.0 | D+0.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-30 | NM President | D+13.0 | D+8.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-27 | CA President | D+26.0 | D+30.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-27 | CA Senate | D+11.0 | D+23.2 | 12.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-18 | MN President | D+7.0 | D+1.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-10 | CA President | D+25.0 | D+30.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-10 | CA Senate | D+17.0 | D+23.2 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-08 | KS President | R+12.0 | R+20.6 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-08 | KS Senate | R+16.0 | R+29.9 | 13.9 | ✓ |
| 2015-10-25 | KY Governor | D+5.0 | R+8.7 | 13.7 | ✗ |
| 2015-09-24 | KY Governor | D+5.0 | R+8.7 | 13.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-11-01 | GA Governor | R+5.0 | R+7.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-01 | GA Senate | R+3.0 | R+7.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-29 | CA-52 House | R+1.0 | D+3.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-29 | MN Governor | D+5.0 | D+5.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-29 | MN Senate | D+11.0 | D+10.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-28 | CO Governor | Even | D+3.3 | 3.3 | — |
| 2014-10-28 | CO Senate | R+2.0 | R+1.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | KY Senate | R+5.0 | R+15.5 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | GA Governor | R+2.0 | R+7.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | GA Senate | R+3.0 | R+7.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-25 | OR Governor | D+10.0 | D+5.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-25 | OR Senate | D+21.0 | D+18.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-24 | KS Governor | D+3.0 | R+3.7 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-24 | KS Senate | R+2.0 | D+10.6 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-23 | SD-1 House | R+16.0 | R+33.1 | 17.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | SD Governor | R+20.0 | R+45.0 | 25.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | SD Senate | R+11.0 | R+20.9 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | NC Senate | Even | R+1.6 | 1.6 | — |
| 2014-10-19 | CA-52 House | R+1.0 | D+3.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-19 | GA Governor | R+2.0 | R+7.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-19 | GA Senate | D+2.0 | R+7.7 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-18 | CA-21 House | R+5.0 | R+15.7 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | CA-17 House | D+2.0 | D+3.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | OR Governor | D+13.0 | D+5.8 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | OR Senate | D+21.0 | D+18.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-17 | KY Senate | R+1.0 | R+15.5 | 14.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | MN Governor | D+10.0 | D+5.6 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | MN Senate | D+15.0 | D+10.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-12 | FL Governor | D+4.0 | R+1.1 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-12 | GA Governor | Even | R+7.9 | 7.9 | — |
| 2014-10-12 | GA Senate | D+3.0 | R+7.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-11 | MN-8 House | R+8.0 | D+1.4 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-11 | CO Governor | D+1.0 | D+3.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-11 | CO Senate | R+2.0 | R+1.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-11 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-06 | CO Governor | R+2.0 | D+3.3 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-06 | NH Governor | D+8.0 | D+5.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | CO Senate | R+4.0 | R+1.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | NH Senate | D+2.0 | D+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-05 | MN-7 House | D+9.0 | D+8.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-04 | CA-52 House | R+3.0 | D+3.2 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-04 | FL Governor | D+2.0 | R+1.1 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-04 | GA Governor | R+2.0 | R+7.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-04 | KS Governor | D+5.0 | R+3.7 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-04 | KS Senate | R+5.0 | D+10.6 | 15.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-04 | GA Senate | R+1.0 | R+7.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-03 | SD-1 House | R+18.0 | R+33.1 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-03 | SD Senate | R+7.0 | R+20.9 | 13.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-01 | MN Governor | D+12.0 | D+5.6 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-01 | KY Senate | D+2.0 | R+15.5 | 17.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-01 | MN Senate | D+18.0 | D+10.2 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-28 | FL Governor | D+6.0 | R+1.1 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-27 | NC-2 House | R+8.0 | R+17.7 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-23 | OR Governor | D+12.0 | D+5.8 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-23 | OR Senate | D+20.0 | D+18.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-21 | FL Governor | R+1.0 | R+1.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-21 | GA Governor | D+1.0 | R+7.9 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-21 | GA Senate | R+1.0 | R+7.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-14 | FL Governor | R+5.0 | R+1.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-13 | CA-52 House | D+1.0 | D+3.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-09 | CO Governor | D+2.0 | D+3.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-09 | CO Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-09 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-07 | FL Governor | R+1.0 | R+1.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-07 | GA Governor | R+1.0 | R+7.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-07 | GA Senate | R+3.0 | R+7.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-06 | KS Governor | D+7.0 | R+3.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-06 | KS Senate | R+1.0 | D+10.6 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-05 | SD-1 House | R+13.0 | R+33.1 | 20.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-05 | CA-21 House | R+19.0 | R+15.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-05 | SD Governor | R+20.0 | R+45.0 | 25.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-05 | SD Senate | R+11.0 | R+20.9 | 9.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.