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SurveyUSA

220 scored general-election polls (2014–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.

Record by cycle

CyclePollsAvg. ErrorLeanWinner Called
2024 1 4.5 pts D+4.5 0%
2022 27 3.4 pts D+1.3 100%
2020 43 4.5 pts D+3.0 85%
2018 30 5.2 pts R+1.9 75%
2017 2 7.1 pts D+7.1 0%
2016 42 5.4 pts D+2.3 86%
2015 2 13.7 pts D+13.7 0%
2014 73 6.8 pts D+5.1 69%

Recent 2026 polls

The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).

DateRaceSampleMatchupMargin
2026-10-12 MN-1 House 565 LV Jake Johnson 46.00% – Brad Finstad 44.00% D+2.0
2026-10-12 MN Governor 718 LV Amy Klobuchar 48.00% – Lisa Demuth 41.00% D+7.0
2026-10-11 NC Senate 643 LV Roy Cooper 54.00% – Michael Whatley 40.00% D+14.0
2026-10-09 CA-50 House 518 LV Marni Von Wilpert 47.00% – Jim Desmond 38.00% D+9.0
2026-10-09 CA-20 House 518 LV Marni Von Wilpert 47.00% – Jim Desmond 38.00% D+9.0
2026-10-09 CA-22 House 518 LV Marni Von Wilpert 47.00% – Jim Desmond 38.00% D+9.0
2026-10-09 MN-1 House 565 LV Jake Johnson 46.00% – Brad Finstad 44.00% D+2.0
2026-10-07 CA-22 House 518 LV Marni Von Wilpert 47.00% – Jim Desmond 38.00% D+9.0
2026-10-07 CA-20 House 518 LV Marni Von Wilpert 47.00% – Jim Desmond 38.00% D+9.0
2026-10-05 NM Senate 567 LV Ben Ray Luján 54.00% – Larry Marker 36.00% D+18.0
2026-09-30 NM Senate 567 LV Ben Ray Luján 54.00% – Larry Marker 36.00% D+18.0
2026-09-30 CA Governor Xavier Becerra 48.00% – Steve Hilton 35.00% D+13.0
2026-09-30 NM Governor 567 LV Deb Haaland 47.00% – Gregg Hull 41.00% D+6.0
2026-09-23 CA Governor 507 LV Xavier Becerra 48.00% – Steve Hilton 35.00% D+13.0
2026-09-20 CA Governor 742 LV Xavier Becerra 55.00% – Steve Hilton 33.00% D+22.0

Every scored poll

DateRacePoll MarginActualErrorCalled It
2024-08-04 National President D+3.0 R+1.5 4.5 ✗
2022-11-28 GA Senate D+3.0 D+2.8 0.2 ✓
2022-10-31 GA Governor R+7.0 R+7.5 0.5 ✓
2022-10-31 GA Senate D+6.0 D+1.0 5.0 ✓
2022-10-30 ME-2 House D+3.0 D+6.1 3.1 ✓
2022-10-30 ME Governor D+6.0 D+13.2 7.2 ✓
2022-10-29 CA-49 House D+6.0 D+5.3 0.7 ✓
2022-10-29 MO Senate R+9.0 R+13.3 4.3 ✓
2022-10-28 MN Governor D+8.0 D+7.7 0.3 ✓
2022-10-23 NC-13 House D+1.0 D+3.2 2.2 ✓
2022-10-23 NM Governor D+7.0 D+6.4 0.6 ✓
2022-10-22 MN-1 House R+9.0 R+11.5 2.5 ✓
2022-10-17 CT Governor D+18.0 D+11.4 6.6 ✓
2022-10-16 NY Governor D+6.0 D+7.3 1.3 ✓
2022-10-16 WA Senate D+8.0 D+14.5 6.5 ✓
2022-10-16 NY Senate D+14.0 D+14.0 0.0 ✓
2022-10-15 MN-2 House D+1.0 D+5.2 4.2 ✓
2022-10-09 CA Senate D+22.0 D+21.8 0.2 ✓
2022-10-09 CA Governor D+22.0 D+18.4 3.6 ✓
2022-10-09 CA Senate D+22.0 D+22.1 0.1 ✓
2022-10-03 NM Governor D+16.0 D+6.4 9.6 ✓
2022-10-02 MN Governor D+10.0 D+7.7 2.3 ✓
2022-10-02 GA Governor R+2.0 R+7.5 5.5 ✓
2022-10-02 GA Senate D+12.0 D+1.0 11.0 ✓
2022-09-30 NC Senate R+1.0 R+3.2 2.2 ✓
2022-09-16 MO Senate R+11.0 R+13.3 2.3 ✓
2022-09-10 NM Governor D+12.0 D+6.4 5.6 ✓
2022-07-28 MN-1 House R+8.0 R+4.0 4.1 ✓
2020-12-18 GA Senate D+5.0 D+1.2 3.8 ✓
2020-12-18 GA Senate D+7.0 D+2.1 4.9 ✓
2020-11-29 GA Senate D+2.0 D+1.2 0.8 ✓
2020-11-29 GA Senate D+7.0 D+2.1 4.9 ✓
2020-10-30 National President D+8.0 D+4.4 3.6 ✓
2020-10-25 M2 President D+3.0 R+7.4 10.4 ✗
2020-10-25 M1 President D+19.0 D+23.1 4.1 ✓
2020-10-25 NC Governor D+11.0 D+4.5 6.5 ✓
2020-10-25 NC Senate D+3.0 R+1.8 4.8 ✗
2020-10-25 MN Senate D+3.0 D+5.2 2.2 ✓
2020-10-25 ME Senate D+2.0 R+8.6 10.6 ✗
2020-10-25 NC President Even R+1.4 1.4 —
2020-10-25 MN President D+5.0 D+7.1 2.1 ✓
2020-10-25 ME President D+13.0 D+9.1 3.9 ✓
2020-10-24 CA-50 House R+11.0 R+7.9 3.1 ✓
2020-10-18 MN Senate D+1.0 D+5.2 4.2 ✓
2020-10-18 MN President D+6.0 D+7.1 1.1 ✓
2020-10-18 National President D+10.0 D+4.4 5.6 ✓
2020-10-17 CA-53 House D+13.0 D+19.0 6.0 ✓
2020-10-10 WA Governor D+14.0 D+13.4 0.6 ✓
2020-10-10 CA-49 House D+20.0 D+6.3 13.7 ✓
2020-10-10 NC Governor D+13.0 D+4.5 8.5 ✓
2020-10-10 IN Governor R+30.0 R+24.5 5.6 ✓
2020-10-10 NC Senate D+10.0 R+1.8 11.8 ✗
2020-10-10 GA Senate R+3.0 R+1.8 1.2 ✓
2020-10-10 WA President D+21.0 D+19.2 1.8 ✓
2020-10-10 NC President D+5.0 R+1.4 6.4 ✗
2020-10-10 IN President R+7.0 R+16.1 9.1 ✓
2020-10-10 GA President D+2.0 D+0.2 1.8 ✓
2020-10-03 MN Senate D+7.0 D+5.2 1.8 ✓
2020-10-03 CO Senate D+9.0 D+9.3 0.3 ✓
2020-10-03 MN President D+7.0 D+7.1 0.1 ✓
2020-10-03 CO President D+10.0 D+13.5 3.5 ✓
2020-10-03 National President D+10.0 D+4.4 5.6 ✓
2020-09-27 CA President D+27.0 D+29.2 2.2 ✓
2020-09-20 CA-53 House D+14.0 D+19.0 5.0 ✓
2020-09-13 CA-49 House D+12.0 D+6.3 5.7 ✓
2020-09-12 NC Governor D+7.0 D+4.5 2.5 ✓
2020-09-12 NC Senate D+7.0 R+1.8 8.8 ✗
2020-09-12 NC President Even R+1.4 1.4 —
2020-09-06 CA-50 House R+1.0 R+7.9 6.9 ✓
2020-09-06 MN Senate D+10.9 D+5.2 5.7 ✓
2020-09-06 MN President D+8.7 D+7.1 1.6 ✓
2018-11-01 CA Governor D+15.0 D+23.9 8.9 ✓
2018-11-01 CA Senate D+14.0 D+8.3 5.7 ✓
2018-10-31 CA-49 House D+7.0 D+12.8 5.8 ✓
2018-10-30 MN Governor D+8.0 D+11.4 3.4 ✓
2018-10-30 MN Senate D+8.0 D+10.6 2.6 ✓
2018-10-30 MN Senate D+23.0 D+24.1 1.1 ✓
2018-10-28 NY-19 House Even D+8.1 8.1 —
2018-10-27 CA-50 House R+3.0 R+3.4 0.4 ✓
2018-10-26 NC-2 House R+9.0 R+5.5 3.5 ✓
2018-10-20 FL Governor D+7.0 R+0.4 7.4 ✗
2018-10-20 FL Senate D+8.0 R+0.1 8.1 ✗
2018-10-18 MN-1 House D+2.0 R+0.5 2.5 ✗
2018-10-14 IN Senate D+1.0 R+5.9 6.9 ✗
2018-10-13 CA Governor D+17.0 D+23.9 6.9 ✓
2018-10-13 CA Senate D+14.0 D+8.3 5.7 ✓
2018-10-11 NC-13 House R+3.0 R+6.0 3.0 ✓
2018-10-11 FL-15 House Even R+6.0 6.0 —
2018-10-05 GA Governor R+2.0 R+1.4 0.6 ✓
2018-10-04 FL-9 House D+8.0 D+16.0 8.0 ✓
2018-09-26 MN-3 House D+5.0 D+11.4 6.4 ✓
2018-09-22 CA-22 House R+14.0 R+5.4 8.6 ✓
2018-09-22 CA-21 House R+11.0 D+0.8 11.8 ✗
2018-09-20 MN-2 House D+3.0 D+5.5 2.5 ✓
2018-09-16 CA-16 House D+11.0 D+15.1 4.1 ✓
2018-09-08 FL Governor D+4.0 R+0.4 4.4 ✗
2018-09-08 FL Senate R+2.0 R+0.1 1.9 ✓
2018-09-07 NC-2 House D+1.0 R+5.5 6.5 ✗
2018-09-07 MN Governor D+7.0 D+11.4 4.4 ✓
2018-09-07 MN Senate D+9.0 D+10.6 1.6 ✓
2018-09-07 MN Senate D+15.0 D+24.1 9.1 ✓
2017-06-09 GA-6 House Even R+3.6 3.6 —
2017-05-18 GA-6 House D+7.0 R+3.6 10.6 ✗
2016-11-01 WA President D+12.0 D+15.7 3.7 ✓
2016-11-01 WA Senate D+12.0 D+18.0 6.0 ✓
2016-11-01 WA Governor D+7.0 D+8.8 1.8 ✓
2016-10-30 NC President R+7.0 R+3.7 3.3 ✓
2016-10-30 CA President D+21.0 D+30.1 9.1 ✓
2016-10-30 CA Senate D+20.0 D+23.2 3.2 ✓
2016-10-30 NC Senate R+6.0 R+5.7 0.3 ✓
2016-10-30 NC Governor D+1.0 D+0.2 0.8 ✓
2016-10-29 NY-19 House D+3.0 R+3.2 6.2 ✗
2016-10-28 KS President R+11.0 R+20.6 9.6 ✓
2016-10-28 KS Senate R+24.0 R+29.9 5.9 ✓
2016-10-26 GA President R+7.0 R+5.1 1.9 ✓
2016-10-24 MN President D+10.0 D+1.5 8.5 ✓
2016-10-22 FL President D+3.0 R+1.2 4.2 ✗
2016-10-22 FL Senate R+4.0 R+7.7 3.7 ✓
2016-10-18 MN-8 House R+4.0 D+0.6 4.6 ✗
2016-10-16 NC President D+2.0 R+3.7 5.7 ✗
2016-10-16 NC Senate R+2.0 R+5.7 3.7 ✓
2016-10-16 NC Governor D+2.0 D+0.2 1.8 ✓
2016-10-15 MN-2 House D+5.0 R+1.8 6.8 ✗
2016-10-14 CA President D+26.0 D+30.1 4.1 ✓
2016-10-14 CA Senate D+21.0 D+23.2 2.2 ✓
2016-10-13 KS President R+11.0 R+20.6 9.6 ✓
2016-10-13 National President D+10.0 D+2.2 7.8 ✓
2016-10-13 KS Senate R+25.0 R+29.9 4.9 ✓
2016-10-12 MN-3 House R+11.0 R+13.7 2.7 ✓
2016-10-11 TX President R+4.0 R+9.0 5.0 ✓
2016-10-11 OR President D+10.0 D+11.0 1.0 ✓
2016-10-11 OR Senate D+22.0 D+23.3 1.3 ✓
2016-10-11 OR Governor D+4.0 D+7.2 3.2 ✓
2016-10-06 CA-17 House D+1.0 D+22.0 21.0 ✓
2016-10-01 NC President D+2.0 R+3.7 5.7 ✗
2016-10-01 NC Senate R+2.0 R+5.7 3.7 ✓
2016-10-01 NC Governor D+4.0 D+0.2 3.8 ✓
2016-09-30 NM President D+13.0 D+8.2 4.8 ✓
2016-09-27 CA President D+26.0 D+30.1 4.1 ✓
2016-09-27 CA Senate D+11.0 D+23.2 12.2 ✓
2016-09-18 MN President D+7.0 D+1.5 5.5 ✓
2016-09-10 CA President D+25.0 D+30.1 5.1 ✓
2016-09-10 CA Senate D+17.0 D+23.2 6.2 ✓
2016-09-08 KS President R+12.0 R+20.6 8.6 ✓
2016-09-08 KS Senate R+16.0 R+29.9 13.9 ✓
2015-10-25 KY Governor D+5.0 R+8.7 13.7 ✗
2015-09-24 KY Governor D+5.0 R+8.7 13.7 ✗
2014-11-01 GA Governor R+5.0 R+7.9 2.9 ✓
2014-11-01 GA Senate R+3.0 R+7.7 4.7 ✓
2014-10-29 CA-52 House R+1.0 D+3.2 4.2 ✗
2014-10-29 MN Governor D+5.0 D+5.6 0.6 ✓
2014-10-29 MN Senate D+11.0 D+10.2 0.8 ✓
2014-10-28 CO Governor Even D+3.3 3.3 —
2014-10-28 CO Senate R+2.0 R+1.9 0.1 ✓
2014-10-27 KY Senate R+5.0 R+15.5 10.5 ✓
2014-10-26 GA Governor R+2.0 R+7.9 5.9 ✓
2014-10-26 GA Senate R+3.0 R+7.7 4.7 ✓
2014-10-25 OR Governor D+10.0 D+5.8 4.2 ✓
2014-10-25 OR Senate D+21.0 D+18.9 2.1 ✓
2014-10-24 KS Governor D+3.0 R+3.7 6.7 ✗
2014-10-24 KS Senate R+2.0 D+10.6 12.6 ✗
2014-10-23 SD-1 House R+16.0 R+33.1 17.1 ✓
2014-10-23 SD Governor R+20.0 R+45.0 25.0 ✓
2014-10-23 SD Senate R+11.0 R+20.9 9.9 ✓
2014-10-23 NC Senate Even R+1.6 1.6 —
2014-10-19 CA-52 House R+1.0 D+3.2 4.2 ✗
2014-10-19 GA Governor R+2.0 R+7.9 5.9 ✓
2014-10-19 GA Senate D+2.0 R+7.7 9.7 ✗
2014-10-18 CA-21 House R+5.0 R+15.7 10.7 ✓
2014-10-18 CA-17 House D+2.0 D+3.5 1.5 ✓
2014-10-18 OR Governor D+13.0 D+5.8 7.2 ✓
2014-10-18 OR Senate D+21.0 D+18.9 2.1 ✓
2014-10-18 NC Senate D+3.0 R+1.6 4.6 ✗
2014-10-17 KY Senate R+1.0 R+15.5 14.5 ✓
2014-10-15 MN Governor D+10.0 D+5.6 4.4 ✓
2014-10-15 MN Senate D+15.0 D+10.2 4.8 ✓
2014-10-12 FL Governor D+4.0 R+1.1 5.1 ✗
2014-10-12 GA Governor Even R+7.9 7.9 —
2014-10-12 GA Senate D+3.0 R+7.7 10.7 ✗
2014-10-11 MN-8 House R+8.0 D+1.4 9.4 ✗
2014-10-11 CO Governor D+1.0 D+3.3 2.3 ✓
2014-10-11 CO Senate R+2.0 R+1.9 0.1 ✓
2014-10-11 NC Senate D+3.0 R+1.6 4.6 ✗
2014-10-06 CO Governor R+2.0 D+3.3 5.3 ✗
2014-10-06 NH Governor D+8.0 D+5.0 3.1 ✓
2014-10-06 CO Senate R+4.0 R+1.9 2.1 ✓
2014-10-06 NH Senate D+2.0 D+3.2 1.2 ✓
2014-10-05 MN-7 House D+9.0 D+8.6 0.5 ✓
2014-10-04 CA-52 House R+3.0 D+3.2 6.2 ✗
2014-10-04 FL Governor D+2.0 R+1.1 3.1 ✗
2014-10-04 GA Governor R+2.0 R+7.9 5.9 ✓
2014-10-04 KS Governor D+5.0 R+3.7 8.7 ✗
2014-10-04 KS Senate R+5.0 D+10.6 15.6 ✗
2014-10-04 GA Senate R+1.0 R+7.7 6.7 ✓
2014-10-03 SD-1 House R+18.0 R+33.1 15.1 ✓
2014-10-03 SD Senate R+7.0 R+20.9 13.9 ✓
2014-10-01 MN Governor D+12.0 D+5.6 6.4 ✓
2014-10-01 KY Senate D+2.0 R+15.5 17.5 ✗
2014-10-01 MN Senate D+18.0 D+10.2 7.8 ✓
2014-09-28 FL Governor D+6.0 R+1.1 7.1 ✗
2014-09-27 NC-2 House R+8.0 R+17.7 9.7 ✓
2014-09-23 OR Governor D+12.0 D+5.8 6.2 ✓
2014-09-23 OR Senate D+20.0 D+18.9 1.1 ✓
2014-09-21 FL Governor R+1.0 R+1.1 0.1 ✓
2014-09-21 GA Governor D+1.0 R+7.9 8.9 ✗
2014-09-21 GA Senate R+1.0 R+7.7 6.7 ✓
2014-09-14 FL Governor R+5.0 R+1.1 3.9 ✓
2014-09-13 CA-52 House D+1.0 D+3.2 2.2 ✓
2014-09-09 CO Governor D+2.0 D+3.3 1.3 ✓
2014-09-09 CO Senate D+4.0 R+1.9 5.9 ✗
2014-09-09 NC Senate D+3.0 R+1.6 4.6 ✗
2014-09-07 FL Governor R+1.0 R+1.1 0.1 ✓
2014-09-07 GA Governor R+1.0 R+7.9 6.9 ✓
2014-09-07 GA Senate R+3.0 R+7.7 4.7 ✓
2014-09-06 KS Governor D+7.0 R+3.7 10.7 ✗
2014-09-06 KS Senate R+1.0 D+10.6 11.6 ✗
2014-09-05 SD-1 House R+13.0 R+33.1 20.1 ✓
2014-09-05 CA-21 House R+19.0 R+15.7 3.3 ✓
2014-09-05 SD Governor R+20.0 R+45.0 25.0 ✓
2014-09-05 SD Senate R+11.0 R+20.9 9.9 ✓

Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. A date links to the original release when that URL is stored. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.

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