Pollster Track Records — 2016
Overall 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014
Every firm's 2016 general-election polls scored against the certified results: average margin error, directional lean (positive = ran more Democratic than the result), and how often the poll's leader won. Firms with fewer than 3 scored polls aren't listed. Method details on the methodology page.
| Pollster | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 235 | 6.8 pts | D+5.7 | 81% |
| Ipsos | 223 | 6.0 pts | D+3.9 | 77% |
| YouGov | 120 | 5.6 pts | D+3.4 | 76% |
| Emerson College | 83 | 5.0 pts | D+1.5 | 70% |
| Gravis Marketing | 72 | 5.1 pts | D+3.2 | 51% |
| Rasmussen Reports | 68 | 5.1 pts | D+3.3 | 66% |
| Public Policy Polling partisan·D | 53 | 4.5 pts | D+4.5 | 60% |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 52 | 6.6 pts | D+5.6 | 63% |
| Quinnipiac | 50 | 4.6 pts | D+3.7 | 72% |
| Lucid | 45 | 5.3 pts | D+5.2 | 84% |
| SurveyUSA | 42 | 5.4 pts | D+2.3 | 86% |
| Remington Research partisan·R | 38 | 6.3 pts | D+3.8 | 62% |
| Marist | 30 | 4.4 pts | D+2.9 | 59% |
| UNH | 30 | 9.5 pts | D+9.3 | 80% |
| Big Village | 26 | 3.6 pts | D+1.6 | 62% |
| Morning Consult | 25 | 3.6 pts | D+3.3 | 52% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 19 | 2.9 pts | D+0.7 | 68% |
| Selzer & Co. | 19 | 4.2 pts | D+3.2 | 63% |
| Leger | 18 | 3.5 pts | R+1.4 | 88% |
| Suffolk University | 18 | 4.2 pts | D+2.1 | 71% |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 16 | 6.3 pts | D+2.6 | 75% |
| Siena College | 16 | 4.0 pts | R+2.7 | 100% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 15 | 3.3 pts | D+3.3 | 64% |
| New York Times/Siena University | 15 | 4.9 pts | D+4.4 | 54% |
| Trafalgar Group partisan·R | 15 | 3.5 pts | R+0.2 | 93% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 14 | 5.6 pts | D+5.2 | 50% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 14 | 6.2 pts | D+5.9 | 86% |
| Public Opinion Strategies partisan·R | 14 | 7.6 pts | D+4.1 | 69% |
| GQR partisan·D | 13 | 6.0 pts | D+2.7 | 73% |
| Maine People's Resource Center partisan·D | 12 | 4.5 pts | D+1.9 | 92% |
| Global Strategy Group partisan·D | 11 | 6.8 pts | D+6.7 | 82% |
| MassINC Polling Group | 11 | 2.7 pts | D+0.3 | 70% |
| Mitchell Research | 11 | 6.8 pts | D+6.8 | 0% |
| Zia Poll | 11 | 6.2 pts | R+5.0 | 100% |
| Data Orbital | 10 | 2.3 pts | D+1.3 | 89% |
| Normington, Petts & Associates partisan·D | 10 | 7.4 pts | D+6.1 | 78% |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 9 | 9.4 pts | D+7.9 | 100% |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 9 | 6.4 pts | D+5.8 | 78% |
| Elon University | 9 | 4.2 pts | D+3.5 | 38% |
| GBAO partisan·D | 9 | 5.4 pts | D+5.0 | 56% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 9 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 56% |
| Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications | 9 | 4.6 pts | D+4.6 | 100% |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 9 | 5.0 pts | R+5.0 | 11% |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 8 | 2.0 pts | D+1.6 | 75% |
| American Research Group | 8 | 2.6 pts | Even | 71% |
| CVOTER | 8 | 2.0 pts | R+0.1 | 88% |
| Impact Research partisan·D | 8 | 10.1 pts | D+10.1 | 50% |
| JMC Analytics | 8 | 3.7 pts | D+2.7 | 100% |
| Muhlenberg College | 8 | 4.0 pts | D+4.0 | 29% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 7 | 6.2 pts | D+5.2 | 83% |
| Cherry Communications partisan·R | 6 | 7.9 pts | R+3.9 | 33% |
| Christopher Newport Univ. | 6 | 3.5 pts | D+3.5 | 100% |
| DFM Research | 6 | 12.7 pts | D+12.7 | 80% |
| Franklin & Marshall | 6 | 8.3 pts | D+8.3 | 33% |
| High Point University | 6 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 67% |
| Marquette | 6 | 6.1 pts | D+6.1 | 0% |
| Moore Information Group | 6 | 5.8 pts | D+1.9 | 100% |
| National Research | 6 | 3.0 pts | D+0.4 | 40% |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 6 | 7.8 pts | D+7.0 | 80% |
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute | 6 | 6.5 pts | D+5.9 | 67% |
| TargetSmart | 6 | 7.3 pts | D+7.3 | 50% |
| UMass Lowell | 6 | 1.7 pts | D+0.6 | 80% |
| Harper Polling partisan·R | 5 | 3.2 pts | D+3.2 | 50% |
| McLaughlin & Associates partisan·R | 5 | 7.8 pts | D+2.6 | 40% |
| St. Pete Polls | 5 | 2.2 pts | R+1.2 | 80% |
| Tarrance Group | 5 | 5.5 pts | R+4.0 | 40% |
| Univ. of North Florida | 5 | 5.2 pts | D+5.2 | 60% |
| Y2 Analytics | 5 | 7.2 pts | D+4.1 | 100% |
| Bendixen & Amandi International partisan·D | 4 | 3.0 pts | R+0.7 | 75% |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 4 | 2.2 pts | D+1.1 | 67% |
| Clout Research | 4 | 5.8 pts | R+2.6 | 100% |
| DHM Research | 4 | 3.9 pts | R+0.1 | 100% |
| Dixie Strategies | 4 | 2.4 pts | R+0.3 | 100% |
| EPIC-MRA | 4 | 6.5 pts | D+6.5 | 0% |
| GfK Group | 4 | 6.7 pts | D+6.7 | 50% |
| Hendrix College | 4 | 4.3 pts | D+3.1 | 100% |
| North Star Opinion Research | 4 | 5.3 pts | R+5.3 | 50% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 4 | 8.9 pts | R+9.1 | 100% |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 4 | 1.2 pts | D+0.8 | 100% |
| Roanoke College | 4 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 100% |
| Susquehanna | 4 | 4.4 pts | D+3.1 | 25% |
| The Tyson Group partisan·R | 4 | 2.9 pts | D+2.7 | 50% |
| TIPP Insights partisan·R | 4 | 1.9 pts | R+1.8 | 75% |
| Tulchin Research partisan·D | 4 | 4.5 pts | D+4.5 | 75% |
| Alaska Survey Research partisan·D | 3 | 5.0 pts | D+1.2 | 100% |
| Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs | 3 | 13.3 pts | D+13.3 | 33% |
| BK Strategies | 3 | 3.8 pts | D+3.7 | 67% |
| Braun Research | 3 | 4.0 pts | D+4.0 | 100% |
| CBS News | 3 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 67% |
| Elway Research | 3 | 3.5 pts | D+3.5 | 100% |
| Expedition Strategies partisan·D | 3 | 8.9 pts | D+6.1 | 33% |
| Florida Atlantic University | 3 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 33% |
| Fort Hays St. University | 3 | 16.7 pts | R+8.3 | 100% |
| Hampton University Center for Public Policy | 3 | 5.4 pts | R+1.0 | 67% |
| Keating Research partisan·D | 3 | 3.8 pts | D+3.8 | 100% |
| Landmark Communications | 3 | 0.6 pts | D+0.3 | 100% |
| Magellan Strategies | 3 | 3.7 pts | D+3.7 | 100% |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 3 | 5.9 pts | D+4.4 | 0% |
| Montana State University Billings | 3 | 5.3 pts | D+3.1 | 100% |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 3 | 19.6 pts | D+19.6 | 100% |
| Pew Research | 3 | 4.6 pts | D+4.6 | 67% |
| Praecones Analytica | 3 | 1.8 pts | R+1.8 | 33% |
| Southern Media & Opinion Research | 3 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 100% |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 3 | 4.8 pts | R+4.8 | 100% |
| The Castleton Polling Institute | 3 | 6.0 pts | D+6.0 | 100% |
| University of Delaware | 3 | 9.3 pts | D+9.3 | 100% |
| Victory Research | 3 | 3.3 pts | R+3.3 | 100% |
| WPA Intelligence partisan·R | 3 | 4.2 pts | Even | 67% |
Scored-poll data for 2016 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); scoring computed by PollingSource.