Tarrance Group
28 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | 3.3 pts | R+1.5 | 100% |
| 2020 | 5 | 2.1 pts | D+2.0 | 100% |
| 2018 | 5 | 6.9 pts | R+6.4 | 80% |
| 2016 | 5 | 5.5 pts | R+4.0 | 40% |
| 2014 | 10 | 7.7 pts | R+1.8 | 80% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-17 | IA Governor | R+17.0 | R+18.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-17 | IA Senate | R+11.0 | R+12.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-12 | NY-25 House | D+4.0 | D+11.3 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | MI Senate | D+1.3 | D+1.7 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | PA-10 House | R+4.0 | R+6.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | IL-17 House | D+5.0 | D+4.1 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | MI Senate | D+2.0 | D+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-28 | NM-2 House | R+1.0 | R+7.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-21 | MI Senate | D+7.0 | D+6.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | NM-2 House | R+4.0 | D+1.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-24 | TX-31 House | R+21.0 | R+2.9 | 18.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-24 | WV Senate | D+4.0 | D+3.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | CO-6 House | D+2.0 | D+11.2 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | VA President | D+9.0 | D+5.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | NV-3 House | R+5.0 | D+1.3 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-28 | NV-3 House | R+5.0 | D+1.3 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-21 | IA-3 House | R+15.0 | R+13.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-18 | CA-24 House | R+3.0 | D+6.8 | 9.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-22 | HI Governor | D+3.0 | D+12.4 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-19 | KS-2 House | R+12.0 | R+18.4 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-16 | HI Governor | D+2.0 | D+12.4 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | AZ Governor | R+7.0 | R+11.8 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-13 | MN-7 House | R+1.0 | D+8.6 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-08 | IA-3 House | R+2.0 | R+10.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-24 | VA-10 House | R+12.0 | R+16.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-24 | MA-6 House | R+1.0 | D+13.8 | 14.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-22 | MN-7 House | D+5.0 | D+8.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-16 | AZ Governor | R+6.0 | R+11.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.