2026 Senate Elections

35 seats up for election (33 Class II + 2 special elections)

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Click a state to set your rating, then save a link you can share. Starts from the current PollingSource ratings.

No toss-up gives each Toss-up to whoever leads the PollingSource average. A tie, or a Toss-up with no average, stays a Toss-up.

48 2026 Senate from current race ratings 44

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From current race ratings · Current Senate: 47D – 53R

Not up (D) Safe D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Lean R Likely R Safe R Not up (R)

53 2026 Senate, no toss-up 46

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No toss-up: a Toss-up with a polling lead counts for that party. A tie, or a Toss-up with no average, stays a Toss-up.

Not up (D) Safe D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Lean R Likely R Safe R Not up (R)

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

No Race

Current Senate: 47D - 53R

Democrats 50 for majority (VP tiebreak) Republicans

Rating-based seat tally after the 2026 elections: 48D – 44R · 8 toss-ups (from current race ratings)

No toss-up seat tally after the 2026 elections: 53D – 46R · 1 toss-up still tied or unpolled

Latest Senate Polls

State	Pollster	Date	Sample	Dem	Rep
SC	Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8	2026-10-18	1095 LV	Annie Andrews 46.00%	Darline Graham 49.00%
OH Special	ActiVote	2026-10-18	400 LV	Sherrod Brown 50.00%	Jon Husted 50.00%
GA	Quantus Insights partisan·R	2026-10-17	755 LV	Ossoff 52.00%	Collins 45.00%
TX	CBS News/YouGov	2026-10-16	1492 LV	James Talarico 51.00%	Ken Paxton 49.00%
IA	Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8	2026-10-15	1094 LV	Josh Turek 44.00%	Ashley Hinson 46.00%
MN	Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8	2026-10-15	1079 LV	Peggy Flanagan 48.00%	Michele Tafoya 45.00%
FL Special	ActiVote	2026-10-15	400 LV	Angie Nixon 47.00%	Ashley Moody 53.00%
AK	Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D 2024 err 2.0	2026-10-15	578 RV	Mary Peltola 48.00%	Dan S. Sullivan 47.00%
OH Special	Rasmussen Reports 2024 err 2.1	2026-10-14	901 LV	Brown 47.00%	Husted 49.00%
MI	Rasmussen Reports (R) 2024 err 2.1	2026-10-14	798 LV	Abdul El-Sayed 46.00%	Mike Rogers 44.00%

176 Senate poll(s) in the last 30 days. All recent Senate polls →

2026 Senate Races by Competitiveness

GOP Avg, DEM Avg, and Spread are the last three polls on each race page, or fewer when fewer exist. Competitive groups list polled races first, closest spread on top. A dash means that average is not on the race.

Toss-up (8)

State	Race	Rating	GOP Avg	DEM Avg	Spread
NE Nebraska	R Pete RickettsO Cindy BurbankO Mike MarvinI Dan Osborn	Toss-up	45.7%	45.7%	Even
IA Iowa	D Josh TurekR Ashley Hinson	Toss-up	45.7%	46.3%	D+0.6
OH Ohio Special	D Sherrod BrownR Jon Husted	Toss-up	48.3%	47.3%	R+1.0
TX Texas	D James TalaricoR Ken Paxton	Toss-up	48.7%	50.3%	D+1.6
KS Kansas	D Adam HamiltonR Roger Marshall	Toss-up	45.3%	47.0%	D+1.7
ME Maine	D Troy JacksonR Susan Collins	Toss-up	47.0%	49.0%	D+2.0
AK Alaska	D Mary PeltolaR Dan S. Sullivan	Toss-up	45.0%	47.7%	D+2.7
SC South Carolina	D Annie AndrewsR Darline Graham	Toss-up	48.0%	45.3%	R+2.7

Lean/Likely Democrat (4)

State	Race	Rating	GOP Avg	DEM Avg	Spread
MI Michigan	D Abdul El-SayedR Mike Rogers	Lean D	45.7%	49.0%	D+3.3
MN Minnesota	D Peggy FlanaganR Michele Tafoya	Lean D	43.3%	46.7%	D+3.4
NH New Hampshire	D Chris PappasR John E. Sununu	Likely D	44.0%	50.7%	D+6.7
GA Georgia	D Jon OssoffR Mike Collins	Likely D	44.3%	52.7%	D+8.4

Lean/Likely Republican (3)

State	Race	Rating	GOP Avg	DEM Avg	Spread
LA Louisiana	D Jamie DavisR Julia Letlow	Lean R	44.5%	40.5%	R+4.0
MS Mississippi	D Scott ColomR Cindy Hyde-Smith	Lean R	46.0%	41.7%	R+4.3
FL Florida Special	D Angie NixonR Ashley MoodyI Neil J. Gillespie	Likely R	51.0%	43.3%	R+7.7

Safe Democrat (10)

State	Race	Rating	GOP Avg	DEM Avg	Spread
CO Colorado	D John HickenlooperR Mark Baisley	Safe D	—	—	—
DE Delaware	D Chris CoonsR Michael S Katz	Safe D	—	—	—
IL Illinois	D Juliana StrattonR Don Tracy	Safe D	36.0%	49.0%	D+13.0
MA Massachusetts	D Ed MarkeyR John Deaton	Safe D	28.7%	51.3%	D+22.6
NC North Carolina	D Roy CooperR Michael Whatley	Safe D	40.3%	51.0%	D+10.7
NJ New Jersey	D Cory BookerR Justin Michael Murphy	Safe D	—	—	—
NM New Mexico	D Ben Ray LujánR Larry E Marker	Safe D	37.0%	53.3%	D+16.3
OR Oregon	D Jeff MerkleyR David Brock Smith	Safe D	—	—	—
RI Rhode Island	D Jack ReedR Raymond McKay	Safe D	29.7%	54.3%	D+24.6
VA Virginia	D Mark WarnerR Bert K Mizusawa	Safe D	33.0%	52.3%	D+19.3

Safe Republican (10)

State	Race	Rating	GOP Avg	DEM Avg	Spread
AL Alabama	D Everett W WessR Barry Moore	Safe R	50.5%	32.5%	R+18.0
AR Arkansas	D Hallie ShoffnerR Tom Cotton	Safe R	50.3%	38.3%	R+12.0
ID Idaho	R Jim RischL Matt LoesbyI Todd Achilles	Safe R	41.0%	18.0%	R+23.0
KY Kentucky	D Charles BookerR Andy Barr	Safe R	45.0%	40.0%	R+5.0
MT Montana	D Alani Ines BankheadR Kurt AlmeL Kyle AustinI Seth Bodnar	Safe R	41.3%	Ind 30.7% (Bodnar)D 14.7%	R+10.6
OK Oklahoma	D N'Kiyla ThomasR Kevin Hern	Safe R	49.0%	25.0%	R+24.0
SD South Dakota	R Mike Rounds	Safe R	—	—	—
TN Tennessee	D Marquita BradshawR Bill Hagerty	Safe R	51.0%	31.0%	R+20.0
WV West Virginia	D Rachel Lee Fetty AndersonR Shelley Moore Capito	Safe R	—	—	—
WY Wyoming	D James Willard ByrdR Harriet Hageman	Safe R	—	—	—

Key Retirements in 2026

Democrats (4)

Dick Durbin (IL)
Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
Tina Smith (MN)
Gary Peters (MI)

Republicans (5)

Mitch McConnell (KY)
Thom Tillis (NC)
Joni Ernst (IA)
Cynthia Lummis (WY)
Tommy Tuberville (AL) - running for Gov

About Senate Ratings

A race rating is the PollingSource average of the last three polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days (Toss-up under 3 points; Lean 3 to under 6; Likely 6 to under 10; Safe 10 or more). Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections stay on each race page. Their consensus is the rating only when the newest poll is older than 30 days. The GOP Avg, DEM Avg, and Spread columns on this page are those last-three averages.

Learn more about our methodology