Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed ✓ | 743,577 | 50.5% | |
| Haley Stevens | 728,041 | 49.5% |
Republican Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rogers ✓ | — | — |
Full calendar and every race: Michigan primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
Share
Race page
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R) 2024 err 2.1 | 2026-10-14 | 798 LV | ±3.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 46.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) 2024 err 1.9 | 2026-10-10 | 1200 LV | ±2.80 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 46.00% |
| Wedgewood Polls | 2026-10-09 | 607 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 53.00% | Mike Rogers 47.00% |
| The Tyson Group (R) partisan·R R-sponsored | 2026-10-08 | 600 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 44.00% | Mike Rogers 46.00% | |
| YouGov | 2026-10-04 | 3949 LV | ±2.50 | Abdul El-Sayed 49.00% | Mike Rogers 48.00% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2026-10-01 | 682 LV | ±3.80 | Abdul El-Sayed 46.00% | Mike Rogers 41.00% |
| Mitchell Research | 2026-10-01 | 680 LV | ±3.80 | El-Sayed 46.00% | Rogers 41.00% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8 | 2026-09-30 | 1085 LV | ±2.90 | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 45.00% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) 2024 err 2.3 | 2026-09-28 | 1028 LV | ±3.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 50.00% | Mike Rogers 49.00% |
| The Tyson Group (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-27 | 600 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 44.00% | Mike Rogers 43.00% | |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy partisan·R | 2026-09-27 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 43.00% |
| Marist University | 2026-09-27 | 1235 RV | ±3.80 | Abdul El-Sayed 51.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| Big Data Poll (R) R-sponsored | 2026-09-24 | 678 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 42.00% |
| co/efficient (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-23 | 843 LV | ±3.36 | Abdul El-Sayed 45.00% | Mike Rogers 45.00% |
| GBAO (D) partisan·D | 2026-09-22 | 800 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% | |
| Rasmussen Reports 2024 err 2.1 | 2026-09-22 | 1099 LV | ±3.00 | El-Sayed 47.00% | Rogers 44.00% |
| NY Times/Siena 2024 err 3.1 | 2026-09-22 | 605 LV | ±4.90 | El-Sayed 49.00% | Rogers 44.00% |
| Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) R-sponsored | 2026-09-21 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 45.00% | Mike Rogers 40.00% |
| Suffolk University | 2026-09-20 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | El-Sayed 47.00% | Rogers 40.00% |
| Torchlight Strategies (R) partisan·R R-sponsored | 2026-09-19 | 643 LV | ±4.70 | Abdul El-Sayed 43.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 49% to 45.7% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+3.3 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Michigan Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean D, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Michigan Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Rasmussen Reports (R) (completed October 14, 2026), found Abdul El-Sayed (D) at 46% and Mike Rogers (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 Michigan Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Peters retiring, open seat in swing state
Independent Expenditures Updated 7 hours ago
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $22,238,006
- UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP') GOP-aligned $19,025,305
- SLF PAC GOP-aligned $10,255,417
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $6,675,537
- WINSENATE Dem-aligned $6,594,047
- TFM GOP-aligned $3,186,520
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $1,686,694
- THE SENTINEL ACTION FUND GOP-aligned $1,507,500
- RJC VICTORY FUND GOP-aligned $1,222,000
- AMERICA PAC GOP-aligned $977,639
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
Get the daily email and the spending series
We store the address and the time you agree. No email is sent yet.