Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed ✓ | 743,577 | 48.5% | |
| Haley Stevens | 728,041 | 47.5% | |
| Mallory McMorrow | 61,411 | 4.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Michigan primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.
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General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA | 2026-08-28 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | El-Sayed 47.00% | Rogers 43.00% |
| Michigan State University/YouGov | 2026-08-20 | 913 RV | ±3.40 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) partisan·R | 2026-08-17 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | Abdul El-Sayed 46.00% | Mike Rogers 39.00% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) ±1.9 R-sponsored | 2026-08-11 | 877 LV | ±3.30 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 47.00% |
| GBAO (D) partisan·D D-sponsored | 2026-08-10 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | Abdul El-Sayed 50.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| TIPP Insights (R) partisan·R ±2.5 | 2026-08-10 | 1528 RV | ±2.60 | Abdul El-Sayed 43.00% | Mike Rogers 39.00% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) ±2.3 | 2026-08-10 | 1006 RV | ±3.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 51.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 47% to 43.9% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+3.1 margin based on 7 polls from the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 Michigan Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean D: Democrats are favored, but the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Michigan Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from EPIC-MRA (completed August 28, 2026), found El-Sayed (D) at 47% and Rogers (R) at 43%.
When is the 2026 Michigan Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Peters retiring, open seat in swing state
Independent Expenditures Updated 3 hours ago
Top Spenders
- UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP') GOP-aligned $20,135,438
- SLF PAC GOP-aligned $2,227,676
- FIGHTING FOR MICHIGAN PAC Dem-aligned $1,941,244
- THE SENTINEL ACTION FUND GOP-aligned $696,114
- COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND Dem-aligned $489,665
- NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION Dem-aligned $489,665
- AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) Dem-aligned $372,026
- GLCF, INC. GOP-aligned $321,051
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $297,367
- A STRONGER MICHIGAN GOP-aligned $150,000
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →