Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed ✓ | 743,577 | 50.5% | |
| Haley Stevens | 728,041 | 49.5% |
Republican Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rogers ✓ | — | — |
Full calendar and every race: Michigan primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Each point is a poll. The published PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days.
Share
Race page
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage ±1.9 | 2026-10-10 | 1200 LV | ±2.83 | El-Sayed 48.00% | Rogers 46.00% |
| Wedgewood Polls | 2026-10-09 | 607 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 53.00% | Mike Rogers 47.00% |
| Quantus Insights partisan·R | 2026-10-06 | 744 LV | ±3.90 | El-Sayed 47.60% | Rogers 46.50% |
| YouGov | 2026-10-04 | 3949 LV | ±2.50 | Abdul El-Sayed 49.00% | Mike Rogers 48.00% |
| Mitchell Research | 2026-10-01 | 680 LV | ±3.80 | El-Sayed 46.00% | Rogers 41.00% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2026-10-01 | 682 LV | ±3.80 | Abdul El-Sayed 46.00% | Mike Rogers 41.00% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R ±1.8 | 2026-09-30 | 1085 LV | ±2.90 | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 45.00% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) ±2.3 | 2026-09-28 | 1028 LV | ±3.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 50.00% | Mike Rogers 49.00% |
| Marist University | 2026-09-27 | 1235 RV | ±3.80 | Abdul El-Sayed 51.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy partisan·R | 2026-09-27 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 43.00% |
| Big Data Poll (R) R-sponsored | 2026-09-24 | 678 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 42.00% |
| co/efficient (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-23 | 843 LV | ±3.36 | Abdul El-Sayed 45.00% | Mike Rogers 45.00% |
| GBAO (D) partisan·D | 2026-09-22 | 800 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% | |
| NY Times/Siena ±3.1 | 2026-09-22 | 605 LV | ±4.90 | El-Sayed 49.00% | Rogers 44.00% |
| New York Times/Siena University ±3.1 | 2026-09-22 | 600 LV | ±4.90 | Abdul El-Sayed 49.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| Rasmussen Reports ±2.1 | 2026-09-22 | 1099 LV | ±3.00 | El-Sayed 47.00% | Rogers 44.00% |
| Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) R-sponsored | 2026-09-21 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 45.00% | Mike Rogers 40.00% |
| Suffolk University | 2026-09-20 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | El-Sayed 47.00% | Rogers 40.00% |
| Torchlight Strategies (R) R-sponsored | 2026-09-19 | 643 LV | ±4.70 | Abdul El-Sayed 43.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| InsiderAdvantage ±1.9 | 2026-09-17 | 1200 LV | ±2.80 | El-Sayed 47.00% | Rogers 45.00% |
| Emerson ±2.7 | 2026-09-14 | 1000 LV | ±3.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 46.00% |
| The Washington Post/SSPG | 2026-09-14 | 803 LV | ±3.90 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 45.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 49.4% to 46.9% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+2.5 margin based on 4 polls from the most recent week of polls ending in the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 Michigan Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Michigan Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from InsiderAdvantage (completed October 10, 2026), found El-Sayed (D) at 48% and Rogers (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 Michigan Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of scientific public polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days. One poll in that week is the average. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists the polls from that window. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Peters retiring, open seat in swing state
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP') GOP-aligned $19,571,406
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $19,126,968
- SLF PAC GOP-aligned $10,005,417
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $6,710,906
- WINSENATE Dem-aligned $4,470,694
- THE SENTINEL ACTION FUND GOP-aligned $1,764,500
- AMERICA PAC GOP-aligned $1,238,302
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $1,211,248
- GLCF, INC. GOP-aligned $676,374
- AMERICAN PRINCIPLES PROJECT PAC GOP-aligned $611,000
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →