Trafalgar Group partisan·R
192 scored general-election polls (2016–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 39 | 1.8 pts | D+1.5 | 89% |
| 2022 | 61 | 5.4 pts | R+4.9 | 70% |
| 2021 | 3 | 0.8 pts | D+0.6 | 100% |
| 2020 | 49 | 2.4 pts | R+1.3 | 59% |
| 2019 | 2 | 5.1 pts | R+5.1 | 0% |
| 2018 | 19 | 5.0 pts | R+2.7 | 68% |
| 2017 | 4 | 5.5 pts | R+1.5 | 50% |
| 2016 | 15 | 3.5 pts | R+0.2 | 93% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | ME Senate | 1091 LV | Troy Jackson 46.00% – Susan Collins 46.00% | Even |
| 2026-10-01 | KS Senate | 1095 LV | Adam Hamilton 44.00% – Roger Marshall 44.00% | Even |
| 2026-09-30 | MI Senate | 1085 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% – Mike Rogers 45.00% | D+2.0 |
| 2026-09-25 | NH Senate | 1090 LV | Chris Pappas 46.00% – John E. Sununu 42.00% | D+4.0 |
| 2026-09-25 | SC Senate | 1087 LV | Annie Andrews 42.00% – Darline Graham 43.00% | R+1.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | AK Senate | 1079 LV | Mary Peltola 46.00% – Dan S. Sullivan 47.00% | R+1.0 |
| 2026-09-18 | IA Senate | 1089 LV | Josh Turek 42.00% – Ashley Hinson 44.00% | R+2.0 |
| 2026-09-17 | TX Senate | 1079 LV | James Talarico 46.00% – Ken Paxton 45.00% | D+1.0 |
| 2026-09-16 | OH Senate | 1085 LV | Sherrod Brown 45.00% – Jon Husted 42.00% | D+3.0 |
| 2026-09-12 | GA Senate | 1091 LV | Jon Ossoff 49.00% – Mike Collins 43.00% | D+6.0 |
| 2026-09-09 | MI Senate | 1079 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 46.00% – Mike Rogers 45.00% | D+1.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-04 | OH President | R+7.0 | R+11.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | OH President | R+7.0 | R+11.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | AZ President | R+2.0 | R+5.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | AZ President | R+2.0 | R+5.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | WI President | D+1.0 | R+0.9 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-03 | WI President | D+1.0 | R+0.9 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-03 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-28 | OH President | R+6.0 | R+11.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-28 | NC President | R+3.0 | R+3.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-28 | NC President | R+3.0 | R+3.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-28 | NV President | Even | R+3.1 | 3.1 | — |
| 2024-10-28 | NV President | Even | R+3.1 | 3.1 | — |
| 2024-10-26 | GA President | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-26 | GA President | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-26 | AZ President | R+2.0 | R+5.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-20 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-10-20 | MI President | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-19 | PA President | R+3.0 | R+1.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-13 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-13 | NV President | D+1.0 | R+3.1 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-13 | AZ President | R+2.0 | R+5.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-08 | GA President | R+1.0 | R+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-30 | WI President | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-30 | MI President | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-29 | PA President | R+3.0 | R+1.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-13 | NV President | D+1.0 | R+3.1 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-13 | GA President | R+1.0 | R+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-12 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-12 | AZ President | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-30 | WI President | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-30 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-08-30 | PA President | R+2.0 | R+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-08 | NC President | R+4.0 | R+3.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-08 | NV President | R+3.0 | R+3.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-08 | AZ President | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-08 | PA President | R+2.0 | R+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-12-04 | GA Senate | D+3.7 | D+2.8 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-06 | NV Governor | R+2.5 | R+1.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-06 | MI Governor | R+0.3 | D+10.5 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-06 | AZ Governor | R+3.6 | D+0.7 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-06 | NV Senate | R+4.9 | D+0.8 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-06 | AZ Senate | R+1.5 | D+4.9 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-05 | National Generic Ballot | R+5.7 | R+2.6 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-05 | GA Governor | R+8.9 | R+7.5 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-05 | NC Senate | R+6.4 | R+3.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-05 | GA Senate | R+3.2 | D+1.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-04 | OH Governor | R+24.5 | R+25.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | OH Senate | R+10.4 | R+6.1 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-03 | WI Governor | R+1.6 | D+3.4 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-03 | WI Senate | R+2.7 | R+1.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-02 | PA Governor | D+4.3 | D+14.8 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-02 | PA Senate | R+2.2 | D+4.9 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-31 | CO Governor | D+7.1 | D+19.4 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-31 | NH Senate | R+1.3 | D+9.1 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-31 | MO Senate | R+11.0 | R+13.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-31 | CO Senate | D+1.5 | D+14.6 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-29 | NY Governor | R+0.8 | D+7.3 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-29 | NY Senate | D+10.6 | D+14.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-27 | WA Senate | D+1.2 | D+14.5 | 13.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | National Generic Ballot | R+5.8 | R+2.6 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | CO Governor | D+7.7 | D+19.4 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-24 | NV Governor | R+6.8 | R+1.5 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-24 | NV Senate | R+4.2 | D+0.8 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-22 | GA Governor | R+6.9 | R+7.5 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-22 | GA Senate | R+2.4 | D+1.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-20 | OR Governor | R+1.3 | D+3.4 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-20 | NM Governor | R+1.1 | D+6.4 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-20 | MI Governor | D+0.5 | D+10.5 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-18 | MN Governor | R+0.5 | D+7.7 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-18 | NC Senate | R+4.2 | R+3.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | AZ Governor | R+2.8 | D+0.7 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-16 | AZ Senate | D+1.0 | D+4.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-15 | GA-2 House | D+3.9 | D+10.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | National Generic Ballot | R+5.3 | R+2.6 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | OH Governor | R+17.4 | R+25.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | OH Senate | R+3.5 | R+6.1 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-10 | PA Governor | D+9.3 | D+14.8 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-10 | GA Governor | R+8.9 | R+7.5 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-10 | PA Senate | D+2.4 | D+4.9 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-10 | GA Senate | D+1.5 | D+1.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-02 | CA-21 House | D+0.4 | D+8.4 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-02 | NY Governor | D+1.9 | D+7.3 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-28 | NH Senate | D+3.2 | D+9.1 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-26 | National Generic Ballot | R+5.7 | R+2.6 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-26 | MI Governor | D+5.8 | D+10.5 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-23 | WA Senate | D+2.2 | D+14.5 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-22 | CO Governor | D+8.5 | D+19.4 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-22 | CO Senate | D+6.0 | D+14.6 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-19 | NV Governor | R+3.0 | R+1.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-19 | NV Senate | R+4.0 | D+0.8 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-17 | WI Governor | R+0.7 | D+3.4 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-17 | WI Senate | R+2.2 | R+1.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-16 | AZ Governor | R+4.4 | D+0.7 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-16 | AZ Senate | D+1.2 | D+4.9 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-14 | PA Governor | D+2.0 | D+14.8 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-14 | MN Governor | D+2.7 | D+7.7 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-14 | PA Senate | D+1.8 | D+4.9 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2021-10-30 | VA Governor | R+2.3 | R+1.9 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2021-10-30 | NJ Governor | D+4.2 | D+3.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2021-10-12 | VA Governor | R+0.9 | R+1.9 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2021-01-03 | GA Senate | D+0.9 | D+1.2 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2021-01-03 | GA Senate | R+1.3 | D+2.1 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-12-25 | GA Senate | D+2.7 | D+1.2 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-25 | GA Senate | D+0.8 | D+2.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-15 | GA Senate | R+2.7 | D+1.2 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-12-15 | GA Senate | R+6.7 | D+2.1 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-12-09 | GA Senate | D+0.3 | D+1.2 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-09 | GA Senate | R+3.1 | D+2.1 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-12-02 | GA Senate | D+0.7 | D+1.2 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-02 | GA Senate | R+4.9 | D+2.1 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 2020-11-01 | NV President | R+0.7 | D+2.4 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-11-01 | GA President | R+4.3 | D+0.2 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2020-11-01 | FL President | R+2.1 | R+3.4 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | PA President | R+1.9 | D+1.2 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-30 | OH President | R+4.8 | R+8.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | MI President | R+2.5 | D+2.8 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-28 | NV President | D+2.3 | D+2.4 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | MI President | R+2.5 | D+2.8 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-27 | FL President | R+2.7 | R+3.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | AZ President | R+2.5 | D+0.3 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-24 | WI President | D+0.4 | D+0.6 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | PA President | R+0.8 | D+1.2 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-24 | MN President | D+3.2 | D+7.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | NC Senate | R+1.8 | R+1.8 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | NC President | R+2.8 | R+1.4 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | MI Senate | R+2.2 | D+1.7 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-17 | MI President | R+1.8 | D+2.8 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-15 | WI President | D+1.3 | D+0.6 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | PA President | D+1.1 | D+1.2 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-13 | MI Senate | R+1.4 | D+1.7 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-13 | MI President | R+0.6 | D+2.8 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-12 | WI President | D+1.9 | D+0.6 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | FL President | R+2.3 | R+3.4 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | PA President | D+2.3 | D+1.2 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-08 | AZ Senate | D+1.9 | D+2.4 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-07 | AZ President | R+4.0 | D+0.3 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-05 | LA President | R+18.2 | R+18.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | OH President | R+3.7 | R+8.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-27 | MI Senate | D+1.4 | D+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-27 | WI President | D+2.9 | D+0.6 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-27 | MI President | D+1.6 | D+2.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | MI Senate | R+0.1 | D+1.7 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-24 | WI President | D+2.8 | D+0.6 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-21 | MI President | R+0.7 | D+2.8 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-20 | PA President | D+2.2 | D+1.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-16 | PA President | D+2.4 | D+1.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-10 | NC Senate | D+0.8 | R+1.8 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-10 | NC President | R+1.7 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2019-11-14 | LA Governor | R+1.2 | D+2.7 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 2019-10-31 | KY Governor | R+5.9 | D+0.4 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-04 | FL Governor | R+3.4 | R+0.4 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | TX Senate | R+8.9 | R+2.6 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | MT Senate | D+1.1 | D+3.6 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | MI Senate | D+9.0 | D+6.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | FL Senate | R+1.7 | R+0.1 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | AZ Senate | R+2.1 | D+2.3 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-03 | OH Governor | D+3.6 | R+3.7 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-01 | GA Governor | R+12.3 | R+1.4 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | MO Senate | R+3.9 | R+5.8 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | NV Governor | R+2.1 | D+4.1 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-31 | NV Senate | R+3.3 | D+5.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-31 | AZ Senate | D+2.7 | D+2.3 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | SC Governor | R+16.2 | R+8.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | FL Governor | D+2.3 | R+0.4 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-29 | FL Senate | D+2.2 | R+0.1 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-23 | ND Senate | R+9.0 | R+10.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | SC Governor | R+23.4 | R+8.0 | 15.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-28 | SC Governor | R+14.0 | R+8.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | MO Senate | R+3.0 | R+5.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2017-12-06 | AL Senate | R+5.1 | D+1.6 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2017-11-01 | VA Governor | D+1.8 | D+8.9 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2017-06-17 | GA-6 House | R+1.9 | R+3.6 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2017-06-12 | GA-6 House | D+2.8 | R+3.6 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-12-05 | LA Senate | R+16.1 | R+21.3 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-16 | LA-4 House | R+24.7 | R+30.5 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-16 | LA-3 House | D+7.6 | D+12.2 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-16 | LA Senate | R+23.1 | R+21.3 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-06 | MI President | R+1.7 | R+0.2 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-06 | GA President | R+6.5 | R+5.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-06 | FL President | R+3.6 | R+1.2 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-04 | UT President | R+10.4 | R+18.1 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-04 | PA President | R+1.9 | R+0.7 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | NV President | R+4.6 | D+2.4 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-02 | CO President | D+0.4 | D+4.9 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | NC President | R+5.0 | R+3.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | FL President | R+3.9 | R+1.2 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-25 | OH President | R+4.4 | R+8.1 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-09 | SC President | R+15.4 | R+14.3 | 1.2 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.