Pollster Track Records — 2024
Overall 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014
Every firm's 2024 general-election polls scored against the certified results: average margin error, directional lean (positive = ran more Democratic than the result), and how often the poll's leader won. Firms with fewer than 3 scored polls aren't listed. Method details on the methodology page.
| Pollster | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 88 | 2.7 pts | D+1.8 | 82% |
| Atlas Intel | 66 | 1.4 pts | D+0.5 | 92% |
| Rasmussen Reports | 63 | 2.1 pts | R+0.4 | 92% |
| New York Times/Siena University | 53 | 3.1 pts | D+2.5 | 57% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 41 | 1.9 pts | D+1.2 | 94% |
| Morning Consult | 39 | 4.0 pts | D+4.0 | 42% |
| Trafalgar Group partisan·R | 39 | 1.8 pts | D+1.5 | 89% |
| Bloomberg | 29 | 4.7 pts | D+4.7 | 18% |
| FOX News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research) | 24 | 2.3 pts | D+1.9 | 68% |
| Harvard-Harris | 22 | 6.9 pts | R+6.8 | 100% |
| Quinnipiac | 21 | 3.0 pts | D+1.9 | 50% |
| Marist | 20 | 4.3 pts | D+4.3 | 47% |
| CNN | 19 | 2.9 pts | D+2.7 | 50% |
| TIPP Insights partisan·R | 16 | 2.5 pts | D+2.5 | 33% |
| CBS News | 14 | 2.6 pts | D+2.4 | 27% |
| Cook Political Report | 14 | 3.9 pts | D+3.9 | 17% |
| Data for Progress partisan·D | 12 | 4.1 pts | D+3.8 | 25% |
| USA Today/Suffolk | 12 | 2.4 pts | D+2.3 | 50% |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 11 | 3.8 pts | D+3.8 | 10% |
| Wall Street Journal | 11 | 2.6 pts | D+1.5 | 56% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 10 | 1.9 pts | D+1.9 | 75% |
| Public Policy Polling partisan·D | 10 | 2.0 pts | D+0.3 | 89% |
| UNH | 10 | 4.2 pts | D+4.2 | 100% |
| Washington Post | 10 | 2.2 pts | D+2.2 | 50% |
| Forbes/HarrisX | 9 | 3.2 pts | D+0.4 | 56% |
| Susquehanna | 8 | 3.7 pts | D+2.2 | 40% |
| Yahoo News | 8 | 2.4 pts | D+1.9 | 29% |
| East Carolina U. | 7 | 1.3 pts | D+1.1 | 100% |
| GSG/NSOR | 7 | 2.9 pts | D+2.7 | 40% |
| Marquette | 7 | 3.2 pts | D+3.2 | 0% |
| NPR/PBS/Marist | 7 | 3.5 pts | D+3.5 | 14% |
| UMass Lowell | 7 | 3.6 pts | D+3.6 | 57% |
| Cygnal partisan·R | 6 | 4.2 pts | D+4.2 | 100% |
| Echelon Insights partisan·R | 6 | 1.9 pts | R+0.3 | 100% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 6 | 4.0 pts | D+4.0 | 50% |
| Remington Research partisan·R | 6 | 2.2 pts | D+2.2 | 80% |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 5 | 3.2 pts | D+3.2 | 100% |
| NBC News | 5 | 2.3 pts | D+2.1 | 50% |
| St. Anselm | 5 | 3.4 pts | D+3.4 | 100% |
| AmGreatness/NSOR | 4 | 1.0 pts | D+0.8 | 100% |
| Ipsos | 4 | 3.7 pts | D+3.7 | 0% |
| Mitchell Research | 4 | 1.9 pts | D+1.9 | 50% |
| New York Post | 4 | 3.2 pts | D+3.2 | 0% |
| Albuquerque Journal | 3 | 3.3 pts | D+3.3 | 100% |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 3 | 1.8 pts | R+1.8 | 100% |
| Carolina Journal/Cygnal | 3 | 1.9 pts | D+1.9 | 100% |
| CNBC | 3 | 0.5 pts | R+0.5 | 100% |
| Federalist/Susquehanna | 3 | 7.8 pts | D+7.8 | 0% |
| Florida Atlantic University | 3 | 6.1 pts | D+6.1 | 100% |
| Franklin & Marshall | 3 | 3.7 pts | D+3.7 | 33% |
| KOB-TV/SurveyUSA | 3 | 0.7 pts | D+0.7 | 100% |
| MinnPost | 3 | 1.1 pts | R+0.6 | 100% |
| Muhlenberg College | 3 | 3.0 pts | D+3.0 | 0% |
| Pew Research | 3 | 2.2 pts | D+2.2 | 0% |
| Siena | 3 | 2.7 pts | D+2.7 | 100% |
| Univ. of North Florida | 3 | 4.1 pts | D+4.1 | 100% |
| University of Houston | 3 | 6.0 pts | D+6.0 | 100% |
| WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA | 3 | 4.2 pts | D+4.2 | 0% |
Scored from the PollingSource poll archive against certified results. 2024 coverage is presidential polling.