Echelon Insights partisan·R
21 scored general-election polls (2016–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 1.9 pts | R+0.3 | 100% |
| 2022 | 8 | 3.1 pts | D+0.5 | 50% |
| 2021 | 1 | 1.1 pts | R+1.1 | 100% |
| 2020 | 4 | 2.3 pts | D+2.3 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 4.4 pts | D+4.4 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-10-30 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-10-30 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-10-30 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-10-30 | PA President | R+5.0 | R+1.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-30 | PA President | R+5.0 | R+1.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-01 | GA Governor | R+7.0 | R+7.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-01 | GA Senate | R+4.0 | D+1.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-25 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | R+2.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-25 | NV Governor | Even | R+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2022-10-25 | NV Senate | Even | D+0.8 | 0.8 | — |
| 2022-10-19 | PA Governor | D+12.0 | D+14.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-19 | PA Senate | D+3.0 | D+4.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-18 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+2.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2021-10-28 | VA Governor | R+3.0 | R+1.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | D+3.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | National President | D+6.0 | D+4.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | National President | D+9.0 | D+4.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-26 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-26 | National President | D+5.0 | D+2.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.