Iowa Senate Race

2026 Election • Class 2
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Primary

Democratic Primary

Held June 2, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Josh Turek 120,448 62.6%
Zach Wahls 71,884 37.4%

Republican Primary

Held June 2, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Ashley Hinson 153,181 73.9%
Jim Carlin 54,178 26.1%

Full calendar and every race: Iowa primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Joni Ernst)
Party
Republican
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Lean R our polls experts: Safe R
Polls
4 polls

PollingSource Rating

Lean R
Our polling average R+3.7 · 4 polls

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.

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Expert Ratings

Cook Political Report

Toss Up
Changed from Lean R on Aug 20

Inside Elections

Solid R

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Candidates

Josh Turek

Josh Turek Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $6,276,527
Cash on Hand: $2,362,314
Ashley Hinson

Ashley Hinson Nominee

Republican

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
44.7%
Republican
48.4%
Margin
R+3.7
Last Poll
Sep 1, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
Emerson ±2.7 2026-09-01 750 LV ±3.60 Josh Turek 45.00% Ashley Hinson 50.00%
Wedgewood Polls 2026-08-29 600 LV ±4.60 Josh Turek 48.00% Ashley Hinson 50.00%
Suffolk University 2026-08-23 500 LV Josh Turek 40.80% Ashley Hinson 45.40%
Emerson ±2.7 2026-08-04 712 LV Josh Turek 45.00% Ashley Hinson 48.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 Iowa Senate race?

Ashley Hinson leads Josh Turek 48.4% to 44.7% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+3.7 margin based on 4 polls from the last 30 days.

Is the 2026 Iowa Senate race competitive?

Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R: Republicans are favored, but the race is competitive.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 Iowa Senate race say?

The most recent public poll, from Emerson (completed September 1, 2026), found Josh Turek (D) at 45% and Ashley Hinson (R) at 50%.

When is the 2026 Iowa Senate race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Ernst retiring Joni Ernst is not seeking re-election; the seat is open.

Independent Expenditures Updated just now

$18,336,420
Total IE Spending
$14,283,473
Support
$4,052,947
Oppose

Top Spenders

Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →

Race News