Iowa Senate Race

2026 Election • Class 2
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Primary

Primary held June 2, 2026.

Democratic Primary

CandidateVotes%
Josh Turek 120,448 62.6%
Zach Wahls 71,884 37.4%

Republican Primary

CandidateVotes%
Ashley Hinson 153,181 73.9%
Jim Carlin 54,178 26.1%

Full calendar and every race: Iowa primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Joni Ernst)
Party
Republican
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Toss-up our polls experts: Safe R
Polls
5 polls

PollingSource Rating

Toss-up
Our polling average D+0.4 · 5 polls

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.

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Expert Ratings

Cook Political Report

Solid R

Inside Elections

Solid R

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Candidates

Josh Turek

Josh Turek Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $6,276,527
Cash on Hand: $2,362,314
Ashley Hinson

Ashley Hinson Nominee

Republican

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
46.6%
Republican
46.2%
Margin
D+0.4
Last Poll
Jun 27, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R) ±2.3 2026-06-27 1003 RV ±3.00 Josh Turek 50.00% Ashley Hinson 46.00%
New York Times/Siena University ±3.1 2026-06-27 600 LV ±4.70 Josh Turek 46.00% Ashley Hinson 48.00%
Cygnal (R) partisan·R ±4.2 2026-06-19 600 LV ±4.00 Josh Turek 44.00% Ashley Hinson 46.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 Iowa Senate race?

Josh Turek leads Ashley Hinson 46.6% to 46.2% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+0.4 margin based on 5 polls from the last 90 days.

Is the 2026 Iowa Senate race competitive?

Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 Iowa Senate race say?

The most recent public poll, from Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R) (completed June 27, 2026), found Josh Turek (D) at 50% and Ashley Hinson (R) at 46%.

When is the 2026 Iowa Senate race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Ernst retiring Joni Ernst is not seeking re-election; the seat is open.

Independent Expenditures Updated 3 hours ago

$13,516,462
Total IE Spending
$12,769,233
Support
$747,229
Oppose

Top Spenders

Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →

Race News