Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Turek ✓ | 120,448 | 62.6% | |
| Zach Wahls | 71,884 | 37.4% |
Republican Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson ✓ | 153,181 | 73.9% | |
| Jim Carlin | 54,178 | 26.1% |
Full calendar and every race: Iowa primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Ashley Hinson Nominee
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2026-10-12 | 2245 LV | ±3.10 | Josh Turek 47.00% | Ashley Hinson 46.00% |
| Marist University | 2026-10-11 | LV | ±6.60 | Josh Turek 48.00% | Ashley Hinson 45.00% |
| Emerson College 2024 err 2.7 | 2026-10-06 | 650 LV | ±3.80 | Josh Turek 45.00% | Ashley Hinson 47.00% |
| SSRS | 2026-10-05 | 801 LV | ±4.20 | Josh Turek 43.00% | Ashley Hinson 45.00% |
| Suffolk University | 2026-10-04 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Josh Turek 48.00% | Ashley Hinson 44.00% |
| New York Times/Siena University 2024 err 3.1 | 2026-10-01 | 606 LV | ±4.60 | Josh Turek 47.00% | Ashley Hinson 48.00% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) 2024 err 2.1 | 2026-09-30 | 1048 LV | ±3.00 | Josh Turek 47.00% | Ashley Hinson 43.00% |
| Quantus Insights (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-29 | 738 LV | ±3.80 | Josh Turek 46.00% | Ashley Hinson 47.00% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) 2024 err 2.3 | 2026-09-28 | 1008 LV | ±3.00 | Josh Turek 49.00% | Ashley Hinson 47.00% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) 2024 err 1.9 | 2026-09-23 | 1200 LV | ±2.80 | Josh Turek 47.00% | Ashley Hinson 46.00% |
| Marist University | 2026-09-20 | 1050 RV | ±4.40 | Josh Turek 50.00% | Ashley Hinson 42.00% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8 | 2026-09-18 | 1089 LV | ±2.90 | Josh Turek 42.00% | Ashley Hinson 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Iowa Senate race?
Josh Turek leads Ashley Hinson 46.7% to 46% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+0.7 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Iowa Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Iowa Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from YouGov (completed October 12, 2026), found Josh Turek (D) at 47% and Ashley Hinson (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 Iowa Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Ernst retiring Joni Ernst is not seeking re-election; the seat is open.
Independent Expenditures Updated 28 min ago
Top Spenders
- WINSENATE Dem-aligned $27,613,108
- VOTEVETS Dem-aligned $14,926,162
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $9,188,836
- FIGHT ON IOWA GOP-aligned $7,130,375
- LOWER COSTS NOW Dem-aligned $5,171,332
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $3,940,670
- WIN IT BACK PAC GOP-aligned $3,762,835
- AMERICAN MEAT PRODUCERS PAC Dem-aligned $2,513,500
- GOVERNMENT THAT WORKS PAC Dem-aligned $1,696,006
- LCV VICTORY FUND Dem-aligned $1,599,000
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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