New York Times/Siena University
246 scored general-election polls (2016–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 53 | 3.1 pts | D+2.5 | 57% |
| 2022 | 14 | 1.9 pts | D+0.2 | 91% |
| 2020 | 69 | 5.8 pts | D+5.6 | 77% |
| 2018 | 94 | 4.6 pts | R+2.2 | 68% |
| 2017 | 1 | 5.9 pts | R+5.9 | 100% |
| 2016 | 15 | 4.9 pts | D+4.4 | 54% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | PA President | R+4.0 | R+1.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | NV President | R+8.0 | R+3.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | GA President | R+3.0 | R+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | AZ President | R+5.0 | R+5.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | WI President | R+2.0 | R+0.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | MI President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | PA President | Even | R+1.7 | 1.7 | — |
| 2024-11-02 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | NV President | D+3.0 | R+3.1 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | NV President | D+3.0 | R+3.1 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | GA President | D+1.0 | R+2.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | GA President | D+1.0 | R+2.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | AZ President | R+4.0 | R+5.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | AZ President | R+4.0 | R+5.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | WI President | D+2.0 | R+0.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | WI President | D+2.0 | R+0.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-11-02 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-11-02 | PA President | Even | R+1.7 | 1.7 | — |
| 2024-10-26 | NE President | R+15.0 | R+20.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-26 | TX President | R+10.0 | R+13.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-26 | TX President | R+10.0 | R+13.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-23 | National President | Even | R+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2024-10-23 | National President | Even | R+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2024-10-10 | AZ President | R+5.0 | R+5.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-10 | PA President | D+4.0 | R+1.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-08 | MT President | R+17.0 | R+19.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-08 | MT President | R+17.0 | R+19.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-06 | FL President | R+14.0 | R+13.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-06 | FL President | R+14.0 | R+13.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-06 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-04 | TX President | R+6.0 | R+13.7 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-26 | OH President | R+6.0 | R+11.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-26 | WI President | D+2.0 | R+0.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-26 | MI President | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-21 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-21 | GA President | R+4.0 | R+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-21 | AZ President | R+5.0 | R+5.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-16 | PA President | D+4.0 | R+1.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-16 | National President | Even | R+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2024-09-06 | National President | R+1.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-15 | NV President | R+1.0 | R+3.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-15 | AZ President | D+5.0 | R+5.5 | 10.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-14 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-14 | GA President | R+4.0 | R+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-09 | PA President | D+4.0 | R+1.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-08 | WI President | D+4.0 | R+0.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-08 | MI President | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-08 | PA President | D+2.0 | R+1.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-07-24 | National President | R+1.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-12 | VA President | D+5.0 | D+5.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-12 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | GA Governor | R+5.0 | R+7.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | GA Senate | D+3.0 | D+1.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-25 | PA Governor | D+13.0 | D+14.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-25 | AZ Governor | Even | D+0.7 | 0.7 | — |
| 2022-10-25 | PA Senate | D+5.0 | D+4.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-25 | AZ Senate | D+6.0 | D+4.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-22 | NM-2 House | D+1.0 | D+0.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-21 | KS-3 House | D+14.0 | D+12.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-21 | NV Governor | R+4.0 | R+1.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-21 | NV Senate | Even | D+0.8 | 0.8 | — |
| 2022-10-20 | NV-1 House | Even | D+5.6 | 5.6 | — |
| 2022-10-19 | PA-8 House | D+6.0 | D+2.5 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | National Generic Ballot | R+3.0 | R+2.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-10 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+2.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-29 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-28 | AZ Senate | D+7.0 | D+2.4 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | WI President | D+11.0 | D+0.6 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | PA President | D+6.0 | D+1.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | AZ President | D+6.0 | D+0.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | NC Governor | D+9.0 | D+4.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.8 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-25 | MI Senate | D+8.0 | D+1.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | NV President | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | NC President | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-25 | MI President | D+8.0 | D+2.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-22 | TX Senate | R+10.0 | R+9.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-22 | TX President | R+4.0 | R+5.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | MT-1 House | R+4.0 | R+12.8 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | MT Governor | R+4.0 | R+12.9 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | MT Senate | R+3.0 | R+10.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | KS Senate | R+4.0 | R+11.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | IA Senate | R+1.0 | R+6.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | MT President | R+6.0 | R+16.4 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | KS President | R+7.0 | R+14.7 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | IA President | D+3.0 | R+8.2 | 11.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-17 | National President | D+9.0 | D+4.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-16 | GA Senate | Even | R+1.8 | 1.8 | — |
| 2020-10-16 | GA President | Even | D+0.2 | 0.2 | — |
| 2020-10-11 | AK-1 House | R+8.0 | R+9.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | NC Governor | D+14.0 | D+4.5 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | SC Senate | R+6.0 | R+10.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.8 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-11 | AK Senate | R+8.0 | R+12.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | SC President | R+8.0 | R+11.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | NC President | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-11 | AK President | R+6.0 | R+10.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | WI President | D+10.0 | D+0.6 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-08 | MI Senate | D+1.0 | D+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-08 | MI President | D+8.0 | D+2.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | OH President | D+1.0 | R+8.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-04 | NV President | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | AZ Senate | D+11.0 | D+2.4 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | AZ President | D+8.0 | D+0.3 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-01 | PA President | D+7.0 | D+1.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | FL President | D+5.0 | R+3.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-26 | N2 President | D+7.0 | D+6.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | NE-2 House | R+2.0 | R+4.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | PA President | D+9.0 | D+1.2 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-23 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | TX Senate | R+6.0 | R+9.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | IA Senate | D+2.0 | R+6.6 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-19 | TX President | R+3.0 | R+5.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | IA President | D+3.0 | R+8.2 | 11.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-18 | GA Senate | R+3.0 | R+1.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-18 | GA President | Even | D+0.2 | 0.2 | — |
| 2020-09-15 | MT-1 House | D+3.0 | R+12.8 | 15.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-15 | MT Governor | R+6.0 | R+12.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | MT Senate | R+1.0 | R+10.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | MT President | R+7.0 | R+16.4 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-13 | M2 President | D+2.0 | R+7.4 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-13 | ME-2 House | D+19.0 | D+6.1 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-13 | NC Governor | D+5.0 | D+4.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-13 | NC Senate | D+5.0 | R+1.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-13 | ME Senate | D+5.0 | R+8.6 | 13.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-13 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-13 | ME President | D+17.0 | D+9.1 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | AZ Senate | D+8.0 | D+2.4 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | AZ President | D+9.0 | D+0.3 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-10 | NH President | D+3.0 | D+7.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | MN Senate | D+9.0 | D+5.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | WI President | D+5.0 | D+0.6 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | NV President | D+4.0 | D+2.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | MN President | D+9.0 | D+7.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | NY-22 House | R+0.9 | D+2.3 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-03 | NY-19 House | D+1.7 | D+8.1 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | KY-6 House | R+0.4 | R+3.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-02 | MI-8 House | D+6.6 | D+3.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-02 | IL-14 House | D+5.2 | D+5.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-02 | IA-4 House | R+4.8 | R+3.3 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | WA-8 House | D+2.8 | D+4.8 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | VA-7 House | R+1.8 | D+1.9 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-01 | TX-32 House | D+4.0 | D+6.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | GA-6 House | D+2.1 | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | CA-48 House | D+1.7 | D+7.1 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | NJ-7 House | D+7.9 | D+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | IA-1 House | D+6.5 | D+5.1 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | KS-2 House | D+4.5 | R+0.9 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-29 | CA-45 House | D+1.3 | D+4.1 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | PA-1 House | R+1.3 | R+2.5 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | CA-25 House | R+4.4 | D+8.7 | 13.2 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-26 | NY-27 House | R+4.4 | D+4.8 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-26 | IA-3 House | D+2.2 | D+2.2 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | UT-4 House | D+0.3 | D+0.3 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | PA-10 House | R+1.6 | R+2.6 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | NY-11 House | R+3.3 | D+8.5 | 11.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-25 | FL Governor | D+4.4 | R+0.4 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-25 | FL Senate | D+3.5 | R+0.1 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-23 | NJ-3 House | R+0.6 | D+1.3 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-23 | IL-13 House | R+5.1 | R+0.8 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-23 | IL-6 House | D+1.2 | D+7.2 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-23 | CA-10 House | D+2.4 | D+4.5 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-22 | TX-7 House | R+0.9 | D+5.1 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-22 | OH-1 House | R+8.7 | R+4.4 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-21 | NM-2 House | R+0.1 | D+1.9 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-21 | FL-26 House | D+0.9 | D+1.8 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-21 | CA-49 House | D+14.7 | D+12.8 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | VA-2 House | R+2.8 | D+2.2 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-20 | IL-12 House | R+8.5 | R+6.2 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | CA-39 House | D+1.0 | D+3.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-19 | VA-5 House | D+1.0 | R+6.5 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-18 | PA-8 House | D+12.6 | D+9.3 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-18 | FL-15 House | R+0.7 | R+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-17 | ME-2 House | D+0.1 | D+1.3 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-17 | FL-27 House | D+7.2 | D+6.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-17 | AZ Senate | R+1.8 | D+2.3 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-16 | WV-3 House | R+4.6 | R+12.8 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | WA-3 House | R+7.0 | R+5.3 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | KS-3 House | D+9.0 | D+9.7 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-15 | TX-23 House | R+15.5 | R+0.4 | 15.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-15 | NJ-11 House | D+10.4 | D+14.6 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-15 | CO-6 House | D+8.7 | D+11.2 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | VA-10 House | D+7.4 | D+12.4 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | PA-1 House | D+7.2 | R+2.5 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-13 | MN-8 House | R+15.7 | R+5.5 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | AZ-6 House | R+14.0 | R+10.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | TX Governor | R+22.0 | R+13.3 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | TN Governor | R+26.0 | R+21.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | TX Senate | R+8.1 | R+2.6 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | TN Senate | R+14.4 | R+10.8 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | NV Governor | R+1.0 | D+4.1 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-09 | NV Senate | R+2.1 | D+5.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-07 | PA-16 House | R+8.6 | R+4.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-06 | NY-1 House | R+8.1 | D+1.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-05 | NC-13 House | R+5.9 | R+6.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-05 | IL-14 House | R+4.9 | D+5.0 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-03 | TX-31 House | R+14.7 | R+2.9 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | MI-11 House | D+7.6 | D+6.7 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | MN-2 House | D+12.0 | D+5.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-30 | MI-8 House | R+3.4 | D+3.8 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-29 | OH-1 House | R+9.3 | R+4.4 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-29 | IA-3 House | D+1.3 | D+2.2 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-28 | VA-2 House | R+7.7 | D+2.2 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-28 | AZ-2 House | D+10.9 | D+9.5 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-25 | WA-8 House | D+0.5 | D+4.8 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-25 | NE-2 House | R+9.2 | R+2.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-24 | NJ-3 House | D+10.5 | D+1.3 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-23 | PA-7 House | D+8.5 | D+10.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-23 | CA-45 House | D+4.9 | D+4.1 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-22 | KS-3 House | D+7.6 | D+9.7 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-21 | TX-32 House | R+1.6 | D+6.5 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-20 | CA-49 House | D+9.7 | D+12.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-19 | NJ-7 House | R+1.0 | D+5.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-19 | IA-1 House | D+14.2 | D+5.1 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-18 | CA-25 House | R+2.2 | D+8.7 | 10.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-16 | TX-7 House | R+3.4 | D+5.1 | 8.5 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-15 | NM-2 House | D+0.7 | D+1.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-15 | FL-26 House | R+3.5 | D+1.8 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-14 | KS-2 House | D+1.0 | R+0.9 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-13 | ME-2 House | R+5.7 | D+1.3 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-13 | CO-6 House | D+10.4 | D+11.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | WI-1 House | R+6.3 | R+12.3 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-11 | VA-7 House | R+3.8 | D+1.9 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-10 | TX-23 House | R+8.0 | R+0.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-09 | WV-3 House | R+8.0 | R+12.8 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-08 | MN-8 House | D+1.0 | R+5.5 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-08 | MN-3 House | D+9.0 | D+11.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-07 | KY-6 House | R+1.0 | R+3.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-31 | VA Governor | D+3.0 | D+8.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | NC President | Even | R+3.7 | 3.7 | — |
| 2016-11-05 | NC Senate | R+1.0 | R+5.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | NC Governor | D+1.0 | D+0.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-26 | FL President | R+4.0 | R+1.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-26 | FL Senate | R+9.0 | R+7.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-24 | PA President | D+7.0 | R+0.7 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-24 | PA Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | NC President | D+7.0 | R+3.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | NC Senate | D+1.0 | R+5.7 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | NC Governor | D+6.0 | D+0.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-18 | NC President | Even | R+3.7 | 3.7 | — |
| 2016-09-18 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+5.7 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-18 | NC Governor | D+8.0 | D+0.2 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-12 | FL President | D+1.0 | R+1.2 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-12 | FL Senate | R+6.0 | R+7.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.