New York Times/Siena University
53 scored general-election polls (2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 53 | 3.1 pts | D+2.5 | 57% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | PA President | R+4.0 | R+1.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | NV President | R+8.0 | R+3.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | GA President | R+3.0 | R+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | AZ President | R+5.0 | R+5.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | WI President | R+2.0 | R+0.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | MI President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | PA President | Even | R+1.7 | 1.7 | — |
| 2024-11-02 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | NV President | D+3.0 | R+3.1 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | NV President | D+3.0 | R+3.1 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | GA President | D+1.0 | R+2.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | GA President | D+1.0 | R+2.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | AZ President | R+4.0 | R+5.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | AZ President | R+4.0 | R+5.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | WI President | D+2.0 | R+0.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | WI President | D+2.0 | R+0.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-11-02 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-11-02 | PA President | Even | R+1.7 | 1.7 | — |
| 2024-10-26 | NE President | R+15.0 | R+20.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-26 | TX President | R+10.0 | R+13.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-26 | TX President | R+10.0 | R+13.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-23 | National President | Even | R+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2024-10-23 | National President | Even | R+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2024-10-10 | AZ President | R+5.0 | R+5.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-10 | PA President | D+4.0 | R+1.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-08 | MT President | R+17.0 | R+19.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-08 | MT President | R+17.0 | R+19.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-06 | FL President | R+14.0 | R+13.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-06 | FL President | R+14.0 | R+13.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-06 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-04 | TX President | R+6.0 | R+13.7 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-26 | OH President | R+6.0 | R+11.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-26 | WI President | D+2.0 | R+0.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-26 | MI President | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-21 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-21 | GA President | R+4.0 | R+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-21 | AZ President | R+5.0 | R+5.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-16 | PA President | D+4.0 | R+1.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-16 | National President | Even | R+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2024-09-06 | National President | R+1.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-15 | NV President | R+1.0 | R+3.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-15 | AZ President | D+5.0 | R+5.5 | 10.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-14 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-14 | GA President | R+4.0 | R+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-09 | PA President | D+4.0 | R+1.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-08 | WI President | D+4.0 | R+0.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-08 | MI President | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-08 | PA President | D+2.0 | R+1.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-07-24 | National President | R+1.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-12 | VA President | D+5.0 | D+5.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-12 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.