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Early vote

Official accepted-ballot turnout from state election offices. Totals live on the Early Vote tracker — not a forecast.

Early vote totals by state →

No toss-up gives each Toss-up to whoever leads the PollingSource average. A tie, or a Toss-up with no average, stays a Toss-up.

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Click a state to set your rating, then save a link you can share. Starts from the current PollingSource ratings.

48 2026 Senate from current race ratings 44
34
8
31
From current race ratings · Current Senate: 47D – 53R
Not up (D) Safe D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Lean R Likely R Safe R Not up (R)
53 2026 Senate, no toss-up 47
34
10 2 7
4 2 10
31
No toss-up: a Toss-up with a polling lead counts for that party. A tie, or a Toss-up with no average, stays a Toss-up.
Not up (D) Safe D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Lean R Likely R Safe R Not up (R)
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
No Race
Senate
R 53 - D 47
House
R 220 - D 215
Election Day
8 days

Biggest Movers Last three polls vs. the prior 30 days

Rhode Island Senate ▲ 5.7 toward D
D+20.0 → D+25.7 3 polls
Nebraska Governor ▲ 5.2 toward D
R+6.5 → R+1.3 3 polls
Massachusetts Governor ▲ 4.5 toward D
D+18.5 → D+23.0 3 polls
VT-AL House ▲ 3.9 toward D
D+26.5 → D+30.4 3 polls

Races to Watch Updated 6 hours ago

Iowa Senate
D Josh TurekR Ashley Hinson
Toss-up · Hinson (R) +2.3 in our poll average
Shifted 3.2 pts toward R vs. prior 30 days · 3 polls
Kansas Senate
D Adam HamiltonR Roger Marshall
Toss-up · Hamilton (D) +1.7 in our poll average
Shifted 1.5 pts toward D vs. prior 30 days · 3 polls
Maine Senate
D Troy JacksonR Susan Collins
Toss-up · Jackson (D) +0.6 in our poll average
Shifted 1.6 pts toward R vs. prior 30 days · 3 polls
Michigan Senate
D Abdul El-SayedR Mike Rogers
Toss-up · El-Sayed (D) +2.7 in our poll average
3 polls
Nebraska Senate
R Pete RickettsI Dan OsbornO Mike Marvin
Toss-up · Ricketts (R) +1.4 in our poll average
3 polls
South Carolina Senate
D Annie AndrewsR Darline Graham
Toss-up · Graham (R) +2.0 in our poll average
Shifted 0.6 pts toward D vs. prior 30 days · 3 polls
Texas Senate
D James TalaricoR Ken Paxton
Toss-up · Talarico (D) +1.7 in our poll average
Shifted 1.5 pts toward R vs. prior 30 days · 3 polls
Alaska Senate
D Mary PeltolaR Dan S. SullivanR Gerald L. Heikes
Toss-up · Peltola (D) +2.3 in our poll average
3 polls

Today's Sourcing

October 26, 2026
National — Financial Times: Democrats (D) 53% | Republicans (R) 44% · Field ended Oct 20 · Source
National — CBS News: Democrats (D) 53% | Republicans (R) 45% · Field ended Oct 23 · Source
TX Governor — Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R): Gina Hinojosa (D) 47% | Greg Abbott (R) 52% · Field ended Oct 19 · Source
OH Governor — GS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies (D): Amy Acton (D) 49% | Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 44% · Field ended Oct 13 · Source
OH Governor — Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R): Amy Acton (D) 50% | Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 48% · Field ended Oct 19 · Source
22 archive polls added →
Top fundraiser: Tricia Pridemore $618,362 Outside spending on October 26, 2026: $1.1M
18 news stories
See full daily briefing →

Latest Political News Updated 6 hours ago

General

State judicial races are on the ballot in November. Here’s what you need to know

WA House
The Hill 10 hours ago
Campaign

El-Sayed: Trump has as much regard for Constitution as ‘a piece of toilet paper’

MI Senate
The Hill 19 hours ago
Campaign

Tillis says it’s ‘appropriate to take a look at’ Alaska ballot with two Dan Sullivans running

AK Senate
The Hill 21 hours ago
Campaign

Maxwell Frost heads to St. Pete to knock on doors for Leela Gray and Angie Nixon

FL House
Florida Politics 21 hours ago
Campaign

‘Staying disciplined’: Christine Hunschofsky leads targeted FHDCC push to grow House caucus

FL House
Florida Politics 21 hours ago
Campaign

Trump says El-Sayed should have to pass through metal detector to enter Senate

MI Senate
The Hill 22 hours ago

State-by-State Overview

State EV 2024 Result Senate Race 2026 Margin Updated
AL Alabama 9 Safe R D Everett W WessR Barry Moore Safe R R+19.0 3 Oct 17
AK Alaska 3 Likely R D Mary PeltolaR Dan S. SullivanR Gerald L. Heikes Toss-up D+2.3 3 Oct 15
AZ Arizona 11 Lean R Not up in 2026 -- --
AR Arkansas 6 Safe R D Hallie ShoffnerR Tom Cotton Safe R R+12.0 3 Oct 15
CA California 54 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
CO Colorado 10 Likely D D John HickenlooperR Mark Baisley Safe D -- --
CT Connecticut 7 Likely D Not up in 2026 -- --
DE Delaware 3 Likely D D Chris CoonsR Michael S Katz Safe D -- --
DC District of Columbia 3 Safe D No Senate seats -- --
FL Florida 30 Likely R D Angie NixonR Ashley MoodyI Neil J. Gillespie Likely R R+6.0 3 Oct 20
GA Georgia 16 Tilt R D Jon OssoffR Mike Collins Likely D D+7.6 3 Oct 20
HI Hawaii 4 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
ID Idaho 4 Safe R R Jim RischI Todd AchillesL Matt Loesby Safe R R+19.4 3 Oct 22
IL Illinois 19 Likely D D Juliana StrattonR Don Tracy Safe D D+15.0 2 Oct 20
IN Indiana 11 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
IA Iowa 6 Likely R D Josh TurekR Ashley Hinson Toss-up R+2.3 3 Oct 22
KS Kansas 6 Safe R D Adam HamiltonR Roger Marshall Toss-up D+1.7 3 Oct 14
KY Kentucky 8 Safe R D Charles BookerR Andy Barr Safe R R+5.0 2 Aug 27
LA Louisiana 8 Safe R D Jamie DavisR Julia Letlow Safe R R+4.0 2 Sep 19
ME Maine 4 Lean D D Troy JacksonR Susan Collins Toss-up D+0.6 3 Oct 23
MD Maryland 10 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
MA Massachusetts 11 Safe D D Ed MarkeyR John Deaton Safe D D+27.0 3 Oct 18
MI Michigan 15 Tilt R D Abdul El-SayedR Mike Rogers Toss-up D+2.7 3 Oct 23
MN Minnesota 10 Tilt D D Peggy FlanaganR Michele Tafoya Lean D D+3.0 3 Oct 21
MS Mississippi 6 Safe R D Scott ColomR Cindy Hyde-Smith Lean R R+4.3 3 Oct 22
MO Missouri 10 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
MT Montana 4 Safe R D Alani Ines BankheadR Kurt AlmeI Seth BodnarL Kyle Austin Likely R R+9.7 · Ind 31.3% (Bodnar) · D 15.3% 3 Oct 18
NE Nebraska 5 Safe R R Pete RickettsI Dan OsbornO Mike Marvin Toss-up R+1.4 3 Oct 22
NV Nevada 6 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
NH New Hampshire 4 Tilt D D Chris PappasR John E. Sununu Likely D D+6.7 3 Oct 23
NJ New Jersey 14 Lean D D Cory BookerR Justin Michael Murphy Safe D -- --
NM New Mexico 5 Lean D D Ben Ray LujánR Larry E Marker Safe D D+16.3 3 Oct 9
NY New York 28 Likely D Not up in 2026 -- --
NC North Carolina 16 Tilt R D Roy CooperR Michael Whatley Safe D D+12.6 3 Oct 20
ND North Dakota 3 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
OH Ohio 17 Likely R D Sherrod BrownR Jon Husted Lean D D+3.3 3 Oct 22
OK Oklahoma 7 Safe R D N'Kiyla ThomasR Kevin Hern Safe R R+24.0 1 Aug 6
OR Oregon 8 Likely D D Jeff MerkleyR David Brock Smith Safe D -- --
PA Pennsylvania 19 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
RI Rhode Island 4 Likely D D Jack ReedR Raymond McKay Safe D D+25.7 3 Oct 11
SC South Carolina 9 Safe R D Annie AndrewsR Darline Graham Toss-up R+2.0 3 Oct 21
SD South Dakota 3 Safe R R Mike RoundsI Brian Bengs Safe R R+15.6 3 Oct 21
TN Tennessee 11 Safe R D Marquita BradshawR Bill Hagerty Safe R R+25.0 1 Aug 26
TX Texas 40 Likely R D James TalaricoR Ken Paxton Toss-up D+1.7 3 Oct 21
UT Utah 6 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
VT Vermont 3 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
VA Virginia 13 Lean D D Mark WarnerR Bert K Mizusawa Safe D D+19.3 3 Oct 10
WA Washington 12 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
WV West Virginia 4 Safe R D Rachel Lee Fetty AndersonR Shelley Moore Capito Safe R -- --
WI Wisconsin 10 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
WY Wyoming 3 Safe R D James Willard ByrdR Harriet Hageman Safe R -- --
Show all states

Tilt = a slight edge, used for expert averages and some House ratings.

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Methodology

A race rating is the PollingSource average of the last three polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days (Toss-up under 3 points; Lean 3 to under 6; Likely 6 to under 10; Safe 10 or more. Tilt = a slight edge, used for expert averages and some House ratings). Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections stay on each race page. Their consensus is the rating only when the newest poll is older than 30 days.

Learn more about our methodology →

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