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50 Projected 2026 Senate 47
34
9 6
3
3 12
31
From current race ratings · Current Senate: 47D – 53R
Not up (D) Safe D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Lean R Likely R Safe R Not up (R)
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
No Race
Senate
R 53 - D 47
House
R 220 - D 215
Election Day
52 days

Biggest Movers 30-day polling average vs. the prior 30 days

Pennsylvania Governor ▲ 9.0 toward D
D+15.0 → D+24.0 3 polls
Florida Governor ▼ 8.0 toward D
R+6.0 → D+2.0 2 polls
Michigan Senate ▲ 3.7 toward D
R+0.9 → D+2.8 6 polls
Arizona Governor ▲ 1.7 toward D
D+6.0 → D+7.7 6 polls

Races to Watch Updated 3 hours ago

Iowa Senate
D Josh TurekR Ashley Hinson
Toss-up
Michigan Senate
D Abdul El-SayedR Mike Rogers
Toss-up ▲3.7 D 6 polls
South Carolina Senate
R Darline Graham
Toss-up
AZ-01
D Amish ShahR Jay Feely
Toss-up
AZ-06
R Juan Ciscomani
Toss-up
CA-22
R David Valadao
Toss-up
CA-47
D Dave Min
Toss-up
FL-22
D Pia DandiyaR Casey Askar
Toss-up

Today's Sourcing

September 11, 2026
TX — YouGov: Gina Hinojosa (D) 47.00% | Greg Abbott (R) 47.00%
TX — Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research: Gina Hinojosa (D) 46.00% | Greg Abbott (R) 49.00%
— YouGov: Quentin Wilson (D) 43.00% | Scott Fitzpatrick (R) 45.00%
OH Senate — InsiderAdvantage (R): Sherrod Brown (D) 47.00% | Jon Husted (R) 42.00%
TX Senate — InsiderAdvantage (R): James Talarico (D) 47.00% | Ken Paxton (R) 46.00%
Top fundraiser: Sarah Eckhardt $113,353 Outside spending: $149.4M
12 news stories
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Latest Political News Updated 3 hours ago

General

Oz wants ‘unexpected star’ Fetterman to cross the aisle and become Republican

PA Senate
The Hill 13 hours ago
Campaign

Vance takes aim at Talarico in Texas convention speech

TX Senate
The Hill 14 hours ago
Campaign

Vance Slams El-Sayed for Saying Grandfather Would’ve Rejected Wife

MI Senate
Daily Signal 14 hours ago
Campaign

David Jolly spoke at event on disabilities issues, but did organizers fail to accommodate needs of attendees?

FL Governor
Florida Politics 17 hours ago
General

Daniel McKee (D) becomes first Rhode Island governor to lose a primary since Bruce Sundlun (D) in 1994

RI Governor
Ballotpedia News 17 hours ago
Fundraising

Congress Reflects: How Charlie Kirk Influenced Today’s Republican Lawmakers

UT House
Daily Signal 17 hours ago

State-by-State Overview

State EV 2024 Result Senate Race 2026 Margin Updated
AL Alabama 9 Safe R Everett W Wess / Barry Moore Safe R -- --
AK Alaska 3 Likely R Dan Sullivan Lean R -- --
AZ Arizona 11 Lean R Not up in 2026 -- --
AR Arkansas 6 Safe R Tom Cotton Likely R R+6.5 2 Aug 18
CA California 54 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
CO Colorado 10 Likely D John Hickenlooper Safe D -- --
CT Connecticut 7 Likely D Not up in 2026 -- --
DE Delaware 3 Likely D Chris Coons Safe D -- --
DC District of Columbia 3 Safe D No Senate seats -- --
FL Florida 30 Likely R Ashley Moody Safe R Even 1 Sep 9
GA Georgia 16 Tilt R Jon Ossoff Lean D D+7.0 1 Aug 17
HI Hawaii 4 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
ID Idaho 4 Safe R Jim Risch Safe R -- --
IL Illinois 19 Likely D Juliana Stratton / Don Tracy Safe D -- --
IN Indiana 11 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
IA Iowa 6 Likely R Josh Turek / Ashley Hinson Toss-up R+1.9 4 Sep 1
KS Kansas 6 Safe R Roger Marshall Likely R -- --
KY Kentucky 8 Safe R Charles Booker / Andy Barr Safe R R+9.0 1 Aug 27
LA Louisiana 8 Safe R Jamie Davis / Julia Letlow Safe R -- --
ME Maine 4 Lean D Susan Collins Lean D D+3.5 2 Sep 8
MD Maryland 10 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
MA Massachusetts 11 Safe D Ed Markey Safe D D+21.0 1 Aug 12
MI Michigan 15 Tilt R Abdul El-Sayed / Mike Rogers Toss-up D+2.8 6 Sep 9
MN Minnesota 10 Tilt D Peggy Flanagan / Michele Tafoya Lean D D+4.0 3 Sep 2
MS Mississippi 6 Safe R Cindy Hyde-Smith Safe R R+6.0 1 Aug 15
MO Missouri 10 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
MT Montana 4 Safe R Alani Ines Bankhead / Kurt Alme / Kyle Austin Safe R R+25.0 1 Aug 25
NE Nebraska 5 Safe R Pete Ricketts Likely R -- --
NV Nevada 6 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
NH New Hampshire 4 Tilt D Chris Pappas / John E. Sununu Lean D D+3.0 2 Aug 30
NJ New Jersey 14 Lean D Cory Booker Safe D -- --
NM New Mexico 5 Lean D Ben Ray Lujan Safe D D+15.0 1 Aug 28
NY New York 28 Likely D Not up in 2026 -- --
NC North Carolina 16 Tilt R Roy Cooper / Michael Whatley Likely D D+8.7 3 Sep 3
ND North Dakota 3 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
OH Ohio 17 Likely R Jon Husted Lean D D+4.5 2 Sep 9
OK Oklahoma 7 Safe R N'Kiyla Thomas / Kevin Hern Safe R -- --
OR Oregon 8 Likely D Jeff Merkley Safe D -- --
PA Pennsylvania 19 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
RI Rhode Island 4 Likely D Jack Reed Safe D -- --
SC South Carolina 9 Safe R Darline Graham Toss-up R+1.0 2 Sep 9
SD South Dakota 3 Safe R Mike Rounds Safe R -- --
TN Tennessee 11 Safe R Bill Hagerty Safe R R+20.0 1 Aug 26
TX Texas 40 Likely R James Talarico / Ken Paxton Lean D D+3.2 6 Sep 9
UT Utah 6 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
VT Vermont 3 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
VA Virginia 13 Lean D Mark Warner Safe D -- --
WA Washington 12 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
WV West Virginia 4 Safe R Shelley Moore Capito Safe R -- --
WI Wisconsin 10 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
WY Wyoming 3 Safe R James Willard Byrd / Harriet Hageman Safe R -- --

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Methodology

A race rating is the 30-day PollingSource average when enough polls exist (Toss-up under 3 points; Lean 3 to under 6; Likely 6 to under 10; Safe 10 or more). One poll never sets the rating by itself. Expert consensus from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections is the fallback when polls are missing.

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