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48 Projected 2026 Senate 49
34
10 3
2
1
2 3 13
31
From current race ratings · Current Senate: 47D – 53R
Not up (D) Safe D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Unrated Lean R Likely R Safe R Not up (R)
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
Unrated
No Race
Senate
R 53 - D 47
House
R 220 - D 215
Election Day
57 days

Biggest Movers 30-day polling average vs. the prior 30 days

Pennsylvania Governor ▲ 9.0 toward D
D+15.0 → D+24.0 3 polls
Michigan Senate ▼ 6.6 toward D
R+3.5 → D+3.1 7 polls
North Carolina Senate ▲ 2.0 toward D
D+8.0 → D+10.0 2 polls
Arizona Governor ▲ 1.7 toward D
D+6.0 → D+7.7 6 polls

Races to Watch Updated 1 hour ago

Maine Senate
R Susan Collins
Toss-up
Texas Senate
D James TalaricoR Ken Paxton
Toss-up ▼1.1 R 4 polls
AZ-01
D Amish ShahR Jay Feely
Toss-up
AZ-06
R Juan Ciscomani
Toss-up
CA-22
R David Valadao
Toss-up
CA-47
D Dave Min
Toss-up
FL-22
D Pia DandiyaR Casey Askar
Toss-up
ME-02
D Matthew DunlapR Paul LePage
Toss-up

Today's Sourcing

September 6, 2026
Top fundraiser: Sarah Eckhardt $113,353 Outside spending: $148.9M
6 news stories
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Latest Political News Updated 1 hour ago

Campaign

Byron Donalds heads to Texas for Donald Trump

FL Governor
Florida Politics 12 hours ago
Campaign

Trump’s MAGA Inc. super-PAC funnels $10 million into Texas Senate race

TX Senate
The Hill 17 hours ago
Campaign

Democrats present united front at Maxwell Alejandro Frost’s Organizing Hub opening

FL Senate
Florida Politics 23 hours ago
General

Swing-Seat Dem Deletes Posts on 'World Without Police'

MI House
RealClearPolitics 1 day ago
General

Live updates: Hegseth eyes Driscoll replacement, Missouri asks to restore GOP-friendly congressional map

MO House
The Hill 1 day ago
General

Missouri asks Supreme Court to restore GOP-friendly congressional map

MO House
The Hill 1 day ago

State-by-State Overview

State EV 2024 Result Senate Race 2026 Margin Updated
AL Alabama 9 Safe R Everett W Wess / Barry Moore Safe R -- --
AK Alaska 3 Likely R Dan Sullivan Lean R -- --
AZ Arizona 11 Lean R Not up in 2026 -- --
AR Arkansas 6 Safe R Tom Cotton Likely R R+6.5 2 Aug 18
CA California 54 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
CO Colorado 10 Likely D John Hickenlooper Safe D -- --
CT Connecticut 7 Likely D Not up in 2026 -- --
DE Delaware 3 Likely D Chris Coons Safe D -- --
DC District of Columbia 3 Safe D No Senate seats -- --
FL Florida 30 Likely R Ashley Moody Safe R -- --
GA Georgia 16 Tilt R Jon Ossoff Lean D D+7.0 1 Aug 17
HI Hawaii 4 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
ID Idaho 4 Safe R Jim Risch Safe R -- --
IL Illinois 19 Likely D Juliana Stratton / Don Tracy Safe D -- --
IN Indiana 11 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
IA Iowa 6 Likely R Josh Turek / Ashley Hinson Lean R R+3.9 3 Sep 1
KS Kansas 6 Safe R Roger Marshall Likely R R+1.0 1 Aug 8
KY Kentucky 8 Safe R Charles Booker / Andy Barr Safe R -- --
LA Louisiana 8 Safe R Jamie Davis / Julia Letlow Safe R -- --
ME Maine 4 Lean D Susan Collins Toss-up D+2.0 1 Aug 10
MD Maryland 10 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
MA Massachusetts 11 Safe D Ed Markey Safe D D+21.0 1 Aug 12
MI Michigan 15 Tilt R Abdul El-Sayed / Mike Rogers Lean D D+3.1 7 Aug 28
MN Minnesota 10 Tilt D Peggy Flanagan / Michele Tafoya Lean D D+5.0 2 Aug 28
MS Mississippi 6 Safe R Cindy Hyde-Smith Safe R R+6.0 1 Aug 15
MO Missouri 10 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
MT Montana 4 Safe R Alani Ines Bankhead / Kurt Alme / Kyle Austin Safe R -- --
NE Nebraska 5 Safe R Pete Ricketts Likely R -- --
NV Nevada 6 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
NH New Hampshire 4 Tilt D OPEN (Jeanne Shaheen) Tilt D -- --
NJ New Jersey 14 Lean D Cory Booker Safe D -- --
NM New Mexico 5 Lean D OPEN (Ben Ray Lujan) Safe D D+15.0 1 Aug 28
NY New York 28 Likely D Not up in 2026 -- --
NC North Carolina 16 Tilt R Roy Cooper / Michael Whatley Safe D D+10.0 2 Aug 12
ND North Dakota 3 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
OH Ohio 17 Likely R Jon Husted Likely D D+6.0 2 Aug 13
OK Oklahoma 7 Safe R N'Kiyla Thomas / Kevin Hern Safe R -- --
OR Oregon 8 Likely D Jeff Merkley Safe D -- --
PA Pennsylvania 19 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
RI Rhode Island 4 Likely D Jack Reed Safe D -- --
SC South Carolina 9 Safe R Darline Graham Safe R Even 1 Aug 24
SD South Dakota 3 Safe R Mike Rounds Safe R -- --
TN Tennessee 11 Safe R Bill Hagerty Safe R R+20.0 1 Aug 26
TX Texas 40 Likely R James Talarico / Ken Paxton Toss-up D+2.0 4 Aug 26
UT Utah 6 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
VT Vermont 3 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
VA Virginia 13 Lean D Mark Warner Safe D -- --
WA Washington 12 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
WV West Virginia 4 Safe R Shelley Moore Capito Safe R -- --
WI Wisconsin 10 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
WY Wyoming 3 Safe R James Willard Byrd / Harriet Hageman Safe R -- --

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Methodology

A race rating is the 30-day PollingSource average when enough polls exist (Toss-up under 3 points; Lean 3 to under 6; Likely 6 to under 10; Safe 10 or more). One poll never sets the rating by itself. Expert consensus from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections is the fallback when polls are missing.

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