Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 6, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marquita Bradshaw ✓ | 193,734 | 60.8% | |
| Maria Brewer | 64,549 | 20.3% | |
| Civil Miller-Watkins | 30,414 | 9.5% | |
| Diana Onyejiaka | 30,003 | 9.4% |
Republican Primary
Held August 6, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty | 629,068 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Tennessee primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Bill Hagerty Nominee Incumbent
Republican
Marquita Bradshaw Nominee
DemocratGeneral Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-08-26 | 1157 RV | ±2.77 | Marquita Bradshaw 31.00% | Bill Hagerty 51.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Tennessee Senate race?
Bill Hagerty leads Marquita Bradshaw 51% to 31% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+20.0 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 Tennessee Senate race competitive?
No — the expert consensus rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Tennessee Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Targoz Market Research (completed August 26, 2026), found Marquita Bradshaw (D) at 31% and Bill Hagerty (R) at 51%.
When is the 2026 Tennessee Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
First-term Class II incumbent (Blackburn, running for governor, holds the 2030 seat)
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND GOP-aligned $275,000
- WINNING RIGHT PAC GOP-aligned $220,000
- SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND GOP-aligned $219,219
- AMERICAN MISSION GOP-aligned $212,297
- SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION GOP-aligned $74,880
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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