2026 House Elections

All 435 seats up for election

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Click a district to set your rating, then save a link you can share. Starts from the current PollingSource ratings.

No toss-up gives each Toss-up to whoever leads the PollingSource average. A tie, or a Toss-up with no average, stays a Toss-up.

216 2026 House from current race ratings — 218 for majority 195
From current race ratings · Current House: 215D – 220R
229 2026 House, no toss-up — 218 for majority 203
No toss-up: a Toss-up with a polling lead counts for that party. A tie, or a Toss-up with no average, stays a Toss-up.

Click a state on the map to open its district map.

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Colors show the race rating (our polls where available, expert consensus otherwise — hover for the source).

218 Seats Needed for Majority

218 Seats Needed for Majority

Current House: 215D - 220R

215
220
Democrats 218 for majority Republicans

Rating-based seat tally after the 2026 elections: 216D – 195R · 24 toss-ups (from current race ratings)

No toss-up seat tally after the 2026 elections: 229D – 203R · 3 toss-ups still tied or unpolled

Latest House Polls

DistrictPollsterDateSampleDemRep
FL-09 SEA Polling (D) 2026-10-15 LV Darren Soto 44.00% Dan Green 44.00%
ME-02 Tulchin Research (D) partisan·D 2026-10-14 500 LV Matt Dunlap 50.00% Paul LePage 46.00%
MN-01 SurveyUSA 2026-10-12 565 LV Jake Johnson 46.00% Brad Finstad 44.00%
RI-01 Emerson College/WPRI-TV 2024 err 2.7 2026-10-11 394 LV Gabe Amo 54.00% Kellie Keenan 26.00%
RI-01 Emerson 2024 err 2.7 2026-10-11 800 LV Gabe Amo 54.00% Kellie Keenan 26.00%
VA-02 Christopher Newport University 2026-10-10 702 LV Elaine Luria 46.00% Jen Kiggans 43.00%
NM-03 Research & Polling 2026-10-09 362 LV Teresa Leger Fernández 53.00% Martin Zamora 39.00%
GA-07 20/20 Insight (D) 2026-10-09 457 LV Anthony Kozycki 47.00% Rich McCormick 45.00%
NM-02 Research & Polling 2026-10-09 383 LV Gabe Vasquez 48.00% Greg Cunningham 44.00%
NC-01 co/efficient (R) partisan·R 2026-10-08 623 LV Don Davis 42.00% Laurie Buckhout 43.00%

42 House district poll(s) in the last 30 days. All recent House polls →

Competitive House Races (84 races)

Races rated Toss-up through Likely, including Tilt, by the resolved poll-first rating — polled races first, closest spread on top

Toss-up (24)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
FL-09 Darren Soto D Toss-up Dan Green Darren Soto (i) 42.5% 42.5% Even
WI-01 Bryan Steil R Toss-up Bryan Steil (i) Mitchell Berman 48.0% 48.0% Even
GA-07 Rich McCormick R Toss-up Rich McCormick (i) Anthony Lawrence Kozycki 45.5% 45.0% R+0.5
VA-01 Rob Wittman R Toss-up Rob Wittman (i) Shannon Taylor 44.7% 45.3% D+0.6
FL-22 Open Toss-up Casey Askar Pia Dandiya 47.0% 48.0% D+1.0
WA-03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D Toss-up John Braun Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (i) 48.0% 47.0% R+1.0
NY-21 Open R Toss-up Anthony Thomas Constantino Blake Gendebien 46.0% 44.7% R+1.3
MT-01 Open R Toss-up Aaron Flint Sam Forstag 44.3% 45.7% D+1.4
FL-16 Open R Toss-up Sydney Gruters Kelly Kirschner 41.0% 39.5% R+1.5
VA-02 Jen Kiggans R Toss-up Jen Kiggans (i) Elaine Luria 45.0% 46.5% D+1.5
MI-04 Bill Huizenga R Toss-up William Huizenga Sean McCann 45.7% 44.0% R+1.7
PA-08 Rob Bresnahan R Toss-up Rob Bresnahan (i) Paige Cognetti 44.3% 46.0% D+1.7
AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani R Toss-up Juan Ciscomani (i) JoAnna Mendoza 43.3% 45.3% D+2.0
IA-02 Open R Toss-up Joe Mitchell Lindsay James 39.0% 41.0% D+2.0
MI-07 Tom Barrett R Toss-up Tom Barrett (i) William Lawrence 46.5% 48.5% D+2.0
NY-17 Mike Lawler R Toss-up Mike Lawler (i) Cait Conley 48.7% 46.7% R+2.0
OH-09 Marcy Kaptur D Toss-up Derek Merrin Marcy Kaptur (i) 47.5% 45.5% R+2.0
NC-11 Open R Toss-up Jennifer Balkcom Jamie Ager 44.0% 47.0% D+3.0
WI-03 Derrick Van Orden R Toss-up Derrick Van Orden (i) Rebecca Cooke 46.0% 50.0% D+4.0
TX-15 Monica De La Cruz R Toss-up Monica De La Cruz (i) Bobby Pulido 45.3% 49.7% D+4.4
IA-03 Zach Nunn R Toss-up Zach Nunn (i) Sarah Trone Garriott 48.0% 42.0% R+6.0
FL-14 Kathy Castor D Toss-up Mike Beltran Kathy Castor (i) 38.0% 46.0% D+8.0
OH-07 Max Miller R Toss-up Max Miller (i) Brian Poindexter 38.0% 48.0% D+10.0
NY-04 Laura Gillen D Toss-up Jeanine Driscoll Laura Gillen (i) — — —

Lean Democrat (11)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
TX-28 Henry Cuellar D Lean D Tano Tijerina Henry Cuellar (i) 40.0% 41.5% D+1.5
CA-48 Open R Lean D Jim Desmond Marni von Wilpert 44.0% 46.5% D+2.5
NM-02 Gabe Vasquez D Lean D Greg Cunningham Gabe Vasquez (i) 42.7% 45.7% D+3.0
ME-02 Open D Lean D Paul LePage Matthew Dunlap 46.3% 50.3% D+4.0
NH-01 Open D Lean D Anthony Dilorenzo Stefany Shaheen 42.0% 46.0% D+4.0
OH-01 Greg Landsman D Lean D Eric Conroy Greg Landsman (i) 43.0% 47.0% D+4.0
PA-10 Scott Perry R Lean D Scott Perry (i) Janelle Stelson 44.3% 48.7% D+4.4
IA-01 Mariannette Miller-Meeks R Lean D Mariannette Miller-Meeks (i) Christina Bohannan 37.0% 41.5% D+4.5
NJ-07 Thomas Kean Jr. R Lean D Thomas Kean Jr. (i) Rebecca Bennett 42.5% 47.0% D+4.5
PA-07 Ryan Mackenzie R Lean D Ryan Mackenzie (i) Bob Brooks 41.5% 46.0% D+4.5
NC-01 Don Davis D Lean D Laurie Buckhout Don Davis (i) 41.0% 46.7% D+5.7

Lean Republican (10)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
TX-35 Open D Lean R Carlos De La Cruz Jr Johnny Garcia 45.0% 44.0% R+1.0
FL-27 María Elvira Salazar R Lean R María Elvira Salazar (i) Eliott Rodriguez 46.0% 44.7% R+1.3
CO-05 Jeff Crank R Lean R Jeff Crank (i) Jessica Willow Killin 44.0% 42.0% R+2.0
FL-13 Anna Paulina Luna R Lean R Anna Paulina Luna (i) Leela J Gray 47.3% 45.3% R+2.0
SC-01 Open R Lean R Jenny Costa Honeycutt Nancy Lacore 45.7% 42.7% R+3.0
VA-05 John McGuire R Lean R John McGuire (i) Thomas Perriello 48.0% 44.7% R+3.3
MN-01 Brad Finstad R Lean R Brad Finstad (i) Jacob Johnson 46.7% 43.0% R+3.7
PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick R Lean R Brian Fitzpatrick (i) Bob Harvie 48.3% 43.7% R+4.6
CO-04 Lauren Boebert R Lean R Lauren Boebert (i) Eileen Laubacher 45.0% 40.0% R+5.0
GA-03 Brian Jack R Lean R Brian Jack (i) Maura Keller 50.0% 45.0% R+5.0

Likely Democrat (17)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
KY-06 Open R Likely D Ralph A Alvarado Zach Dembo 38.3% 45.0% D+6.7
NE-02 Open R Likely D Brinker Harding Denise Powell 40.0% 48.0% D+8.0
MN-02 Open D Likely D Eric Pratt Matt Little 40.0% 48.5% D+8.5
CA-06 Open D Likely D Kevin Kiley (O) Richard Pan — — —
CA-21 Jim Costa D Likely D Kyle Kirkland Jim Costa (i) — — —
CA-45 Derek Tran D Likely D Chuong V. Vo Derek Tran (i) — — —
IN-01 Frank J. Mrvan D Likely D Barb Regnitz Frank J. Mrvan (i) — — —
MI-08 Kristen McDonald Rivet D Likely D Thomas J. Smith Kristen McDonald Rivet (i) — — —
NJ-09 Nellie Pou D Likely D Rosie Pino Nellie Pou (i) — — —
NV-01 Dina Titus D Likely D Carrie Buck Dina Titus (i) — — —
NV-03 Susie Lee D Likely D Martin O'Donnell Susie Lee (i) — — —
NV-04 Steven Horsford D Likely D Cody K Whipple Steven Horsford (i) — — —
NY-03 Tom Suozzi D Likely D Mike LiPetri Tom Suozzi (i) — — —
NY-19 Josh Riley D Likely D Peter Karl Oberacker Jr Josh Riley (i) — — —
OH-13 Emilia Sykes D Likely D Carey Coleman Emilia Sykes (i) — — —
OR-05 Janelle Bynum D Likely D Patti Adair Janelle Bynum (i) — — —
VA-07 Eugene Vindman D Likely D Douglas Ollivant Eugene Vindman (i) — — —

Likely Republican (15)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
NV-02 Open R Likely R David Flippo Teresa Benitez-Thompson 42.7% 42.7% Even
AL-02 Shomari Figures D Likely R Rhett Marques Shomari Figures (i) 46.0% 45.7% R+0.3
IN-05 Victoria Spartz R Likely R Victoria Spartz (i) J.D. Ford 48.0% 46.0% R+2.0
MO-02 Ann Wagner R Likely R Ann Wagner (i) Frederick Wellman 43.5% 41.5% R+2.0
TX-23 Open R Likely R Brandon Herrera Katy Padilla Stout 42.0% 40.0% R+2.0
AZ-02 Eli Crane R Likely R Eli Crane (i) Jonathan Michael Nez 45.0% 42.5% R+2.5
AR-02 French Hill R Likely R French Hill (i) Chris Jones 43.5% 47.0% D+3.5
OH-15 Mike Carey R Likely R Mike Carey (i) Don Ralph Leonard 43.0% 38.5% R+4.5
NE-01 Mike Flood R Likely R Mike Flood (i) Chris Backemeyer 42.7% 38.0% R+4.7
TX-09 Open D Likely R Alex Mealer Leticia Gutierrez 48.0% 42.0% R+6.0
TN-05 Open R Likely R Charlie Hatcher Chaz Molder 47.0% 40.5% R+6.5
TX-10 Open R Likely R Chris Gober Caitlin McClay Rourk 48.0% 41.0% R+7.0
CO-03 Jeff Hurd R Likely R Jeff Hurd (i) Dwayne Romero — — —
FL-07 Open R Likely R Ryan Elijah Bale Dalton — — —
OH-10 Mike Turner R Likely R Mike Turner (i) Kristina Knickerbocker — — —

Tilt Democrat (5)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
TX-34 Vicente Gonzalez D Tilt D Eric Flores Vicente Gonzalez (i) 42.3% 42.0% R+0.3
CA-22 David Valadao R Tilt D David Valadao (i) Randy Villegas 44.0% 48.0% D+4.0
FL-25 Jared Moskowitz D Tilt D Scott M. Singer Jared Moskowitz (i) 33.0% 43.0% D+10.0
AZ-01 Open R Tilt D Jay Feely Amish Shah — — —
CA-13 Adam Gray D Tilt D Kevin J Lincoln II Adam Gray (i) — — —

Tilt Republican (2)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
MI-10 Open R Tilt R Michael Bouchard Christina Hines 43.5% 44.5% D+1.0
CO-08 Gabe Evans R Tilt R Gabe Evans (i) Manny Rutinel 48.0% 46.0% R+2.0

Safe House seats

The rest of the 435, grouped by the same poll-first rating as the bar

Safe Democrat (183)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
AL-07 Terri Sewell D Safe D Ammie Akin Terri Sewell (i) — — —
AZ-03 Yassamin Ansari D Safe D Nicholas Glenn Yassamin Ansari (i) — — —
AZ-04 Greg Stanton D Safe D Zuhdi Jasser Greg Stanton (i) — — —
AZ-07 Adelita Grijalva D Safe D Daniel Butierez Adelita Grijalva (i) — — —
CA-01 James Gallagher R Safe D James Gallagher Mike McGuire — — —
CA-02 Jared Huffman D Safe D Robin Littau Jared Huffman (i) — — —
CA-03 Open R Safe D Robb Tucker Ami Bera — — —
CA-04 Mike Thompson D Safe D — Eric Jones / Mike Thompson (i) — — —
CA-07 Doris Matsui D Safe D — Doris Matsui (i) / Mai Vang — — —
CA-08 John Garamendi D Safe D Rudy Recile John Garamendi (i) — — —
CA-09 Josh Harder D Safe D John McBride Josh Harder (i) — — —
CA-10 Mark DeSaulnier D Safe D Jeff Frese Mark DeSaulnier (i) — — —
CA-11 Open D Safe D — Connie Chan / Scott Wiener — — —
CA-12 Lateefah Simon D Safe D — Jamie Joyce / Lateefah Simon (i) — — —
CA-14 Aisha Wahab D Safe D — Aisha Wahab / Melissa Hernandez — — —
CA-15 Kevin Mullin D Safe D Charles Hoelter Kevin Mullin (i) — — —
CA-16 Sam Liccardo D Safe D Peter Sundin Soulé Sam Liccardo (i) — — —
CA-17 Ro Khanna D Safe D Ritesh Tandon Ro Khanna (i) — — —
CA-18 Zoe Lofgren D Safe D Shane Lewis Zoe Lofgren (i) — — —
CA-19 Jimmy Panetta D Safe D Peter Coe Verbica Jimmy Panetta (i) — — —
CA-24 Salud Carbajal D Safe D Bob Smith Salud Carbajal (i) — — —
CA-25 Raul Ruiz D Safe D Joe Males Raul Ruiz (i) — — —
CA-26 Open D Safe D Sam Gallucci Jacqui Irwin V — — —
CA-27 George Whitesides D Safe D Jason Gibbs George Whitesides (i) — — —
CA-28 Judy Chu D Safe D April Verlato Judy Chu (i) — — —
CA-29 Luz Rivas D Safe D — Angélica María Dueñas / Luz Maria Rivas (i) — — —
CA-30 Laura Friedman D Safe D Scott Alan Meyers Laura Friedman (i) — — —
CA-31 Gil Cisneros D Safe D Eric J Ching Gil Cisneros (i) — — —
CA-32 Brad Sherman D Safe D Larry Thompson Brad Sherman (i) — — —
CA-33 Pete Aguilar D Safe D Stephanie M. Vargas Pete Aguilar (i) — — —
CA-34 Jimmy Gomez D Safe D — Angela Gonzales-Torres / Jimmy Gomez (i) — — —
CA-35 Norma Torres D Safe D Mike Cargile Norma J. Torres (i) — — —
CA-36 Ted Lieu D Safe D Houston Brignano Ted W. Lieu (i) — — —
CA-37 Sydney Kamlager-Dove D Safe D — Samantha Mota / Sydney Kamlager-Dove (i) — — —
CA-38 Open D Safe D Pedro Antonio Casas Hilda Solis — — —
CA-39 Mark Takano D Safe D Steve Manos Mark Takano (i) — — —
CA-41 Open R Safe D Mitch Clemmons Linda Sánchez — — —
CA-42 Robert Garcia D Safe D Brian J Burley Robert Garcia (i) — — —
CA-43 Maxine Waters D Safe D Cristian Morales Maxine Waters (i) — — —
CA-44 Nanette Barragán D Safe D Genevieve Angel Nanette Barragán (i) — — —
CA-46 Lou Correa D Safe D David Pan Lou Correa (i) — — —
CA-47 Dave Min D Safe D Jenny Rae Le Roux Dave Min (i) — — —
CA-49 Mike Levin D Safe D Armen Kurdian Mike Levin (i) — — —
CA-50 Scott Peters D Safe D Steve Cohen Scott Peters (i) — — —
CA-51 Sara Jacobs D Safe D Ricardo Cabrera Sara Jacobs (i) — — —
CA-52 Juan Vargas D Safe D Jeff Belle Juan Vargas (i) — — —
CO-01 Open D Safe D Christy Peterson Melat Kiros — — —
CO-02 Joe Neguse D Safe D Kelley Dennison Joe Neguse (i) — — —
CO-06 Jason Crow D Safe D Bemelekot W Tewahade Jason Crow (i) — — —
CO-07 Brittany Pettersen D Safe D Tim Bennett Brittany Pettersen (i) — — —
CT-01 Open D Safe D Amy Fogelstrom Chai Luke Bronin — — —
CT-02 Joe Courtney D Safe D — — —
CT-03 Rosa DeLauro D Safe D Christopher John Lancia — — —
CT-04 Jim Himes D Safe D Michael Goldstein Jim Himes (i) — — —
CT-05 Jahana Hayes D Safe D Chris Shea Jahana Hayes (i) — — —
DE-AL Sarah McBride D Safe D Joseph Joe Arminio Sarah McBride (i) — — —
FL-10 Maxwell Frost D Safe D (No Nominee) Maxwell Frost (i) — — —
FL-20 Debbie Wasserman Schultz D Safe D Brent Andersen Debbie Wasserman Schultz (i) — — —
FL-23 Lois Frankel D Safe D Deborah Adeimy Lois Frankel (i) — — —
FL-24 Open D Safe D Te Brown Oliver G. Gilbert III — — —
GA-02 Sanford Bishop D Safe D Matt Day Sanford Bishop (i) — — —
GA-04 Hank Johnson D Safe D James Duffie Hank Johnson (i) — — —
GA-05 Nikema Williams D Safe D John Salvesen Nikema Williams (i) — — —
GA-06 Lucy McBath D Safe D Kevin Eugene Martin Lucy McBath (i) — — —
GA-13 Open D Safe D Jonathan Chavez Jasmine Clark — — —
HI-01 Ed Case D Safe D (No Nominee) Ed Case (i) — — —
HI-02 Jill Tokuda D Safe D Brenton Awa Jill Tokuda (i) — — —
IL-01 Jonathan Jackson D Safe D Christian Maxwell Jonathan Jackson (i) — — —
IL-02 Open D Safe D Michael Noack Donna Miller — — —
IL-03 Delia Ramirez D Safe D Angel Oakley Delia Ramirez (i) — — —
IL-04 Chuy García D Safe D Lupe Castillo Patty Garcia 15.0% 34.0% D+19.0
IL-05 Mike Quigley D Safe D Tommy Hanson Mike Quigley (i) — — —
IL-06 Sean Casten D Safe D Niki Conforti Sean Casten (i) — — —
IL-07 Open D Safe D Chad Koppie La Shawn Ford — — —
IL-08 Open D Safe D Jennifer Davis Melissa Luburich Bean — — —
IL-09 Open D Safe D John Elleson Daniel Biss — — —
IL-10 Brad Schneider D Safe D Carl Lambrecht Brad Schneider (i) — — —
IL-11 Bill Foster D Safe D Jeff Walter Bill Foster (i) — — —
IL-13 Nikki Budzinski D Safe D Jeff Wilson Nikki Budzinski (i) — — —
IL-14 Lauren Underwood D Safe D James Thomas Marter Lauren Underwood (i) — — —
IL-17 Eric Sorensen D Safe D Dillan Vancil Eric Sorensen (i) — — —
IN-07 André Carson D Safe D Patrick McAuley André Carson (i) — — —
KS-03 Sharice Davids D Safe D Eric Jenkins Sharice Davids (i) — — —
KY-03 Morgan McGarvey D Safe D Maria Teresa Rodriguez Morgan McGarvey (i) — — —
LA-02 Troy Carter D Safe D Troy Carter (i) — — —
MA-01 Richard Neal D Safe D (No Nominee) Richard Neal (i) — — —
MA-02 Jim McGovern D Safe D (No Nominee) James McGovern (i) — — —
MA-03 Lori Trahan D Safe D Gary J. Grossi Lori Trahan (i) — — —
MA-04 Jake Auchincloss D Safe D Thomas Stalcup Jake Auchincloss — — —
MA-05 Katherine Clark D Safe D (No Nominee) Katherine Clark (i) — — —
MA-06 Open D Safe D Micah Q. Jones Dan Koh — — —
MA-07 Ayanna Pressley D Safe D (No Nominee) Ayanna Pressley (i) — — —
MA-08 Stephen Lynch D Safe D Robert Gerald Burke Stephen Lynch (i) — — —
MA-09 Bill Keating D Safe D Robert Tyler Macallister Bill Keating (i) — — —
MD-02 Johnny Olszewski D Safe D Dave Wallace Johnny Olszewski (i) — — —
MD-03 Sarah Elfreth D Safe D Berney Flowers Sarah Elfreth (i) — — —
MD-04 Glenn Ivey D Safe D George McDermott Glenn Ivey (i) — — —
MD-05 Open D Safe D Chris Chaffee Adrian Boafo — — —
MD-06 April McClain Delaney D Safe D Robin Ficker April McClain Delaney (i) — — —
MD-07 Kweisi Mfume D Safe D Scott Collier Kweisi Mfume (i) — — —
MD-08 Jamie Raskin D Safe D Cheryl Riley Jamie Raskin (i) — — —
ME-01 Chellie Pingree D Safe D Ronald Charles Russell Chellie Pingree (i) 35.0% 57.0% D+22.0
MI-03 Hillary Scholten D Safe D Terri Deboer Hillary Scholten (i) — — —
MI-06 Debbie Dingell D Safe D (No Nominee) Debbie Dingell (i) — — —
MI-11 Open D Safe D (No Nominee) Jeremy Moss — — —
MI-12 Rashida Tlaib D Safe D (No Nominee) Rashida Tlaib (i) — — —
MI-13 Shri Thanedar D Safe D (No Nominee) Donavan McKinney — — —
MN-03 Kelly Morrison D Safe D Tyler Bass Kelly Morrison (i) — — —
MN-04 Betty McCollum D Safe D Paul Wikstrom Betty McCollum (i) — — —
MN-05 Ilhan Omar D Safe D John Nagel Ilhan Omar (i) — — —
MO-01 Wesley Bell D Safe D Paul Berry III Wesley Bell (i) — — —
MO-05 Emanuel Cleaver D Safe D Richard Brattin Emanuel Cleaver (i) — — —
MS-02 Bennie Thompson D Safe D Ron Eller Bennie Thompson (i) — — —
NC-02 Deborah Ross D Safe D Eugene Douglass Deborah Ross (i) — — —
NC-04 Valerie Foushee D Safe D Max Ganorkar Valerie Foushee (i) — — —
NC-12 Alma Adams D Safe D Jack Codiga Alma Adams (i) — — —
NH-02 Maggie Goodlander D Safe D Lily Tang Williams Maggie Goodlander (i) 33.7% 52.0% D+18.3
NJ-01 Donald Norcross D Safe D Damon Galdo Donald Norcross (i) — — —
NJ-03 Herb Conaway D Safe D Michael McGuire Herb Conaway (i) — — —
NJ-05 Josh Gottheimer D Safe D Sean Joseph Kirrane Josh Gottheimer (i) — — —
NJ-06 Frank Pallone D Safe D Hillary Herzig Frank Pallone (i) — — —
NJ-08 Rob Menendez D Safe D (No Nominee) Rob Menendez (i) — — —
NJ-10 LaMonica McIver D Safe D Carmen Bucco LaMonica McIver (i) — — —
NJ-11 Analilia Mejia D Safe D Joe Hathaway Analilia Mejia (i) — — —
NJ-12 Open D Safe D Gregg Mele Adam Hamawy — — —
NM-01 Melanie Stansbury D Safe D Didi Okpareke Melanie Stansbury (i) — — —
NM-03 Teresa Leger Fernandez D Safe D Martin R Zamora Teresa Leger Fernández 39.0% 53.0% D+14.0
NY-05 Gregory Meeks D Safe D (No Nominee) Gregory Meeks (i) — — —
NY-06 Grace Meng D Safe D (No Nominee) Grace Meng (i) — — —
NY-07 Open D Safe D (No Nominee) Claire Valdez — — —
NY-08 Hakeem Jeffries D Safe D (No Nominee) — — —
NY-09 Yvette Clarke D Safe D Jean Fritzner Depalis Yvette Clarke (i) — — —
NY-10 Dan Goldman D Safe D (No Nominee) Brad Lander — — —
NY-12 Open D Safe D (No Nominee) Micah Charles Lasher — — —
NY-13 Adriano Espaillat D Safe D (No Nominee) Darializa Avila Chevalier — — —
NY-14 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D Safe D (No Nominee) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (i) — — —
NY-15 Ritchie Torres D Safe D (No Nominee) Ritchie Torres (i) — — —
NY-16 George Latimer D Safe D (No Nominee) George Latimer (i) — — —
NY-18 Pat Ryan D Safe D Jackie Mary Auringer Pat Ryan (i) 39.0% 53.0% D+14.0
NY-20 Paul Tonko D Safe D Ralph Ambrosio Paul Tonko (i) — — —
NY-22 John Mannion D Safe D John Mannion (i) — — —
NY-25 Joseph Morelle D Safe D Virginia McIntyre Joseph Morelle (i) — — —
NY-26 Tim Kennedy D Safe D (No Nominee) Tim Kennedy (i) — — —
OH-03 Joyce Beatty D Safe D Cleophus Dulaney Joyce Beatty (i) — — —
OH-11 Shontel Brown D Safe D Mike Kirchner Shontel Brown — — —
OR-01 Suzanne Bonamici D Safe D Barbara J Kahl Suzanne Bonamici (i) — — —
OR-03 Maxine Dexter D Safe D Loran Ayles Maxine Dexter (i) — — —
OR-04 Val Hoyle D Safe D Monique DeSpain Val Hoyle (i) — — —
OR-06 Andrea Salinas D Safe D David Honorable Russ Andrea Salinas (i) — — —
PA-02 Brendan Boyle D Safe D Jessica Arriaga Brendan Boyle (i) — — —
PA-03 Open D Safe D (No Nominee) Chris Rabb — — —
PA-04 Madeleine Dean D Safe D Aurora Stuski Madeleine Dean (i) — — —
PA-05 Mary Gay Scanlon D Safe D Nicholas Waln Morris Manganaro Mary Gay Scanlon (i) — — —
PA-06 Chrissy Houlahan D Safe D Marty Young Chrissy Houlahan (i) — — —
PA-12 Summer Lee D Safe D James Hayes Summer Lee (i) — — —
PA-17 Chris Deluzio D Safe D Tony Guy Chris Deluzio (i) — — —
RI-01 Gabe Amo D Safe D Kellie Eleanor Keenan Gabe Amo (i) 26.0% 54.0% D+28.0
RI-02 Seth Magaziner D Safe D Victor Gilbert Mellor Seth Magaziner (i) — — —
SC-06 Jim Clyburn D Safe D John Peterson Jim Clyburn (i) — — —
TX-07 Lizzie Fletcher D Safe D Alexander Hale Lizzie Fletcher (i) — — —
TX-16 Veronica Escobar D Safe D Adam Bauman Veronica Escobar (i) — — —
TX-18 Christian Menefee D Safe D Ronald Whitfield Christian D. Menefee (i) — — —
TX-20 Joaquin Castro D Safe D Edgardo Rafael Baez Joaquin Castro (i) — — —
TX-29 Sylvia Garcia D Safe D Martha Fierro Sylvia Garcia (i) — — —
TX-30 Open D Safe D Everett Honorable Jackson Frederick Haynes III — — —
TX-33 Open D Safe D Patrick David Gillespie Colin Allred — — —
TX-37 Open D Safe D Lauren Peña Greg Casar — — —
UT-01 Open Safe D Riley Montgomery Owen Ben McAdams 21.0% 63.0% D+42.0
VA-03 Bobby Scott D Safe D Edwin Rivera Jr Bobby Scott (i) — — —
VA-04 Jennifer McClellan D Safe D (No Nominee) Jennifer McClellan (i) — — —
VA-08 Don Beyer D Safe D Tony Sabio Donald Beyer (i) — — —
VA-10 Suhas Subramanyam D Safe D David Beckwith Suhas Subramanyam (i) — — —
VA-11 James Walkinshaw D Safe D Arthur Grahame Purves — — —
VT-AL Becca Balint D Safe D Gerald Malloy Becca Balint (i) 27.7% 57.3% D+29.6
WA-01 Suzan DelBene D Safe D Mary Silva Suzan DelBene (i) — — —
WA-02 Rick Larsen D Safe D Edwin H. Feller Rick Larsen (i) — — —
WA-06 Emily Randall D Safe D Teresa Fox Emily Randall (i) — — —
WA-07 Pramila Jayapal D Safe D Nirav Sheth Pramila Jayapal (i) — — —
WA-08 Kim Schrier D Safe D Spencer Harrison Meline Kim Schrier (i) — — —
WA-09 Adam Smith D Safe D Douglas Basler D. Smith — — —
WA-10 Marilyn Strickland D Safe D Chris D. Chung Marilyn Strickland (i) — — —
WI-02 Mark Pocan D Safe D (No Nominee) Mark Pocan (i) — — —
WI-04 Gwen Moore D Safe D Tim Rogers Gwen Moore (i) — — —

Safe Republican (168)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
AK-AL Nick Begich III R Safe R Nick Begich III (i) Matthew Damian Schultz 49.0% Dem 38.7% (Schultz) R+10.3
AL-01 Open R Safe R Jerry Lee, Carl Jr Clyde W Jones Jr — — —
AL-03 Mike Rogers R Safe R Mike Rogers (i) Victor McInnis — — —
AL-04 Robert Aderholt R Safe R Robert Aderholt (i) Amanda N. Pusczek — — —
AL-05 Dale Strong R Safe R Dale Strong (i) Andrew Rankin Guyton Sneed — — —
AL-06 Gary Palmer R Safe R Gary Palmer (i) Maurice Mercer — — —
AR-01 Rick Crawford R Safe R Rick Crawford (i) Terri Yarbrough Green — — —
AR-03 Steve Womack R Safe R Steve Womack (i) Robb Ryerse — — —
AR-04 Bruce Westerman R Safe R Bruce Westerman (i) James Richard Russell III — — —
AZ-05 Open R Safe R Mark Lamb Elizabeth Lee — — —
AZ-08 Abraham Hamadeh R Safe R Abraham Hamadeh (i) Bernadette Greene-Placentia — — —
AZ-09 Paul Gosar R Safe R Paul Gosar (i) Danielle Sterbinsky — — —
CA-05 Tom McClintock R Safe R Tom McClintock (i) Michael Masuda — — —
CA-20 Vince Fong R Safe R Vince Fong (i) Sandra Van Scotter — — —
CA-23 Jay Obernolte R Safe R Jay Obernolte (i) Tessa Lynn Hodge — — —
CA-40 Young Kim R Safe R Ken Calvert / Young Kim (i) — — — —
FL-01 Jimmy Patronis R Safe R Jimmy Patronis Jennifer Gay Valimont — — —
FL-02 Open R Safe R Austin Rogers Amanda Marie Green — — —
FL-03 Kat Cammack R Safe R Kat Cammack (i) Seth Allan Harp — — —
FL-04 Aaron Bean R Safe R Aaron Bean (i) Lashonda J Holloway — — —
FL-05 John Rutherford R Safe R John Rutherford (i) Rachel Grage — — —
FL-06 Randy Fine R Safe R Randy Fine (i) Eric Yonce — — —
FL-08 Mike Haridopolos R Safe R Mike Haridopolos (i) Colby Shock — — —
FL-11 Daniel Webster R Safe R Joe Strada James Pericola — — —
FL-12 Gus Bilirakis R Safe R Gus Bilirakis (i) Kimberly Overman — — —
FL-15 Laurel Lee R Safe R Laurel Lee (i) Robert People — — —
FL-17 Greg Steube R Safe R Greg Steube (i) Matthew Montavon — — —
FL-18 Scott Franklin R Safe R Scott Franklin (i) Curtis Gibson — — —
FL-19 Open R Safe R Jim Schwartzel Victor M. Arias — — —
FL-21 Brian Mast R Safe R Brian Mast (i) James Martin — — —
FL-26 Mario Díaz-Balart R Safe R Mario Díaz-Balart (i) — — —
FL-28 Carlos Giménez R Safe R Carlos Gimenez — — —
GA-01 Open R Safe R Jim Kingston Amanda Hollowell — — —
GA-08 Austin Scott R Safe R Austin Scott (i) Kelly Esti — — —
GA-09 Andrew Clyde R Safe R Andrew Clyde (i) Caitlyn Gegen — — —
GA-10 Open R Safe R Houston Gaines Pamela DeLancy — — —
GA-11 Open R Safe R John Cowan Chris Harden 40.0% 42.0% D+2.0
GA-12 Rick Allen R Safe R Rick Allen (i) Ceretta Smith — — —
GA-14 Clay Fuller R Safe R Clay Fuller (i) Shawn Harris — — —
IA-04 Open R Safe R Chris McGowan David Dawson — — —
ID-01 Russ Fulcher R Safe R Russ Fulcher (i) Kaylee Jade Peterson 46.5% 31.0% R+15.5
ID-02 Mike Simpson R Safe R Mike Simpson (i) Elinor Gilbreath — — —
IL-12 Mike Bost R Safe R Mike Bost (i) Julie Fortier — — —
IL-15 Mary Miller R Safe R Mary Miller (i) Jennifer Ann Todd — — —
IL-16 Darin LaHood R Safe R Darin LaHood (i) Paul Nolley — — —
IN-02 Rudy Yakym R Safe R Rudy Yakym (i) Jamee Decio — — —
IN-03 Marlin Stutzman R Safe R Marlin Stutzman (i) Kelly Elizabeth Thompson — — —
IN-04 Jim Baird R Safe R Jim Baird (i) Drew Cox — — —
IN-06 Jefferson Shreve R Safe R Jefferson Shreve (i) Cinde Wirth — — —
IN-08 Mark Messmer R Safe R Mark Messmer (i) Mary Theresa Allen — — —
IN-09 Erin Houchin R Safe R Erin Houchin (i) Brad Meyer — — —
KS-01 Tracey Mann R Safe R Tracey Mann (i) Lauren Reinhold — — —
KS-02 Derek Schmidt R Safe R Derek Schmidt (i) Don Coover — — —
KS-04 Ron Estes R Safe R Ron Estes (i) Katy Tyndell — — —
KY-01 James Comer R Safe R James R. Comer (i) John Andrew Williams — — —
KY-02 Brett Guthrie R Safe R S. Brett Guthrie Megan Wingfield — — —
KY-04 Open R Safe R Ed Gallrein Melissa Claire Strange — — —
KY-05 Hal Rogers R Safe R Hal Rogers (i) Ned Pillersdorf — — —
LA-01 Steve Scalise R Safe R Steve Scalise (i) Lauren Jewett — — —
LA-03 Clay Higgins R Safe R Clay Higgins (i) John David Day — — —
LA-04 Mike Johnson R Safe R — — —
LA-05 Open R Safe R — — —
LA-06 Cleo Fields D Safe R — — —
MD-01 Andy Harris R Safe R Andy Harris (i) Dan Schwartz 52.0% 39.0% R+13.0
MI-01 Jack Bergman R Safe R John Bergman (i) Callie Barr — — —
MI-02 John Moolenaar R Safe R John Moolenaar (i) Benjamin Ambrose — — —
MI-05 Tim Walberg R Safe R Tim Walberg (i) Christian A Vukasovich — — —
MI-09 Lisa McClain R Safe R Steven Raymond Pooley — — —
MN-06 Tom Emmer R Safe R Tom Emmer (i) Doug Chapin — — —
MN-07 Michelle Fischbach R Safe R (No Nominee) Erik Osberg — — —
MN-08 Pete Stauber R Safe R Pete Stauber (i) Trina Swanson — — —
MO-03 Bob Onder R Safe R Robert Onder Jr Bethany Mann — — —
MO-04 Mark Alford R Safe R Mark Alford (i) Jordan Herrera — — —
MO-06 Open R Safe R Chris Stigall Josh Smead — — —
MO-07 Eric Burlison R Safe R Eric Burlison (i) Missi Hesketh — — —
MO-08 Jason Smith R Safe R Jason Smith (i) Christopher Reichard — — —
MS-01 Trent Kelly R Safe R Trent Kelly (i) Cliff Johnson — — —
MS-03 Michael Guest R Safe R Michael Guest (i) Michael Alexis Chiaradio — — —
MS-04 Mike Ezell R Safe R Mike Ezell (i) Jeffrey Hulum III — — —
MT-02 Troy Downing R Safe R Troy Downing (i) Brian James Miller 48.0% 26.0% R+22.0
NC-03 Greg Murphy R Safe R Greg Murphy (i) Raymond Smith Jr. 44.0% 41.0% R+3.0
NC-05 Virginia Foxx R Safe R Virginia Foxx (i) Chuck Hubbard — — —
NC-06 Addison McDowell R Safe R Addison McDowell (i) Cyril Jefferson — — —
NC-07 David Rouzer R Safe R David Rouzer (i) Kimberly Hardy 45.0% 39.0% R+6.0
NC-08 Mark Harris R Safe R Mark Harris (i) Colby Watson — — —
NC-09 Richard Hudson R Safe R Richard Hudson (i) Richard N. Ojeda 46.0% 42.0% R+4.0
NC-10 Pat Harrigan R Safe R Pat Harrigan (i) Ashley Bell 52.0% 37.0% R+15.0
NC-13 Brad Knott R Safe R Brad Knott (i) Paul Barringer — — —
NC-14 Tim Moore R Safe R Tim Moore (i) LaKesha Womack 48.0% 40.0% R+8.0
ND-AL Julie Fedorchak R Safe R Julie Fedorchak (i) Trygve Hammer — — —
NE-03 Adrian Smith R Safe R Adrian Smith (i) Becky Lynn Stille — — —
NJ-02 Jeff Van Drew R Safe R Jeff Van Drew (i) Zack Mullock — — —
NJ-04 Chris Smith R Safe R Chris Smith (i) Rachel Peace — — —
NY-01 Open R Safe R Lalota Nick Chris Gallant — — —
NY-02 Andrew Garbarino R Safe R Andrew Garbarino (i) — — —
NY-11 Nicole Malliotakis R Safe R Nicole Malliotakis (i) Michael DeCillis — — —
NY-23 Nick Langworthy R Safe R (No Nominee) Aaron Gies — — —
NY-24 Claudia Tenney R Safe R Claudia Tenney (i) Alissa Ellman — — —
OH-02 David Taylor R Safe R David Taylor (i) Jennifer Mazzuckelli — — —
OH-04 Jim Jordan R Safe R Jim Jordan (i) Joshua Kolasinski — — —
OH-05 Bob Latta R Safe R Bob Latta (i) Brian Alan Shaver — — —
OH-06 Michael Rulli R Safe R Michael Rulli (i) Elizabeth Kirtley — — —
OH-08 Warren Davidson R Safe R Warren Davidson (i) Vanessa Enoch — — —
OH-12 Troy Balderson R Safe R Troy Balderson (i) Jerrad Shane Christian — — —
OH-14 David Joyce R Safe R David Joyce (i) Maria Jukic — — —
OK-01 Open R Safe R Mark Tedford (No Nominee) — — —
OK-02 Josh Brecheen R Safe R Josh Brecheen (i) Brandon Wade — — —
OK-03 Frank Lucas R Safe R Frank Lucas (i) Suzie Byrd — — —
OK-04 Tom Cole R Safe R Tom Cole (i) Mitchell Leigh Jacob — — —
OK-05 Stephanie Bice R Safe R Stephanie Bice (i) Jena Nelson — — —
OR-02 Cliff Bentz R Safe R Cliff Bentz (i) Chris Beck — — —
PA-09 Dan Meuser R Safe R Dan Meuser (i) Rachel Wallace — — —
PA-11 Lloyd Smucker R Safe R Lloyd Smucker (i) Nancy Mannion — — —
PA-13 John Joyce R Safe R John Joyce (i) Beth Farnham — — —
PA-14 Guy Reschenthaler R Safe R Guy Reschenthaler (i) Alan Bradstock — — —
PA-15 Glenn Thompson R Safe R Glenn Thompson (i) Ray Bilger — — —
PA-16 Mike Kelly R Safe R Mike Kelly (i) Justin Wagner — — —
SC-02 Joe Wilson R Safe R Joe Wilson (i) Zyon Khalifa — — —
SC-03 Sheri Biggs R Safe R Sheri Biggs (i) Eunice Lehmacher — — —
SC-04 William Timmons R Safe R William Timmons (i) Courtney McClain — — —
SC-05 Open R Safe R (No Nominee) Mallory Dittmer — — —
SC-07 Russell Fry R Safe R Russell Fry John Gregory Vincent 41.0% 37.0% R+4.0
SD-AL Dusty Johnson R Safe R Marty Jackley (No Nominee) — — —
TN-01 Diana Harshbarger R Safe R Diana Harshbarger (i) Kristi Burke — — —
TN-02 Tim Burchett R Safe R Tim Burchett (i) Michaela Barnett — — —
TN-03 Chuck Fleischmann R Safe R Chuck Fleischmann (i) Anna Golladay — — —
TN-04 Scott DesJarlais R Safe R Scott Desjarlais (i) Victoria Broderick — — —
TN-06 Open R Safe R Johnny Garrett Mike Croley — — —
TN-07 Matt Van Epps R Safe R Matt Van Epps Darden Hunter Copeland — — —
TN-08 David Kustoff R Safe R David Kustoff (i) Heidi Kuhn — — —
TN-09 Open D Safe R Brent Taylor Justin Pearson 48.0% 44.0% R+4.0
TX-01 Nathaniel Moran R Safe R Nathaniel Moran (i) Yolanda Prince — — —
TX-02 Open R Safe R Steve Toth Shaun Finnie — — —
TX-03 Keith Self R Safe R Keith Self (i) Evan Hunt — — —
TX-04 Pat Fallon R Safe R Pat Fallon (i) Jason Pearce — — —
TX-05 Lance Gooden R Safe R Lance Gooden (i) Chelsey Hockett — — —
TX-06 Jake Ellzey R Safe R Jake Ellzey (i) Danny Minton — — —
TX-08 Open R Safe R Jessica Hart Steinmann Laura Jones — — —
TX-11 August Pfluger R Safe R August Pfluger (i) Claire Anne Reynolds — — —
TX-12 Craig Goldman R Safe R Craig Goldman (i) Angela Rodriguez Prilliman — — —
TX-13 Ronny Jackson R Safe R Ronny Jackson (i) Mark Nair — — —
TX-14 Randy Weber R Safe R Randy Weber (i) Thurman Bartie — — —
TX-17 Pete Sessions R Safe R Pete Sessions (i) Casey Shepard — — —
TX-19 Open R Safe R Tom Sell Kyle Rable — — —
TX-21 Open R Safe R Mark Charles Teixeira Kristin A Hook — — —
TX-22 Troy Nehls R Safe R Trever Nehls (i) Marquette Greene-Scott — — —
TX-24 Beth Van Duyne R Safe R Beth Van Duyne (i) Kevin Beryl Burge — — —
TX-25 Roger Williams R Safe R Roger Williams (i) Dione Sims — — —
TX-26 Brandon Gill R Safe R Brandon Gill (i) Steven James Shook — — —
TX-27 Michael Cloud R Safe R Michael Cloud (i) Tanya W Lloyd — — —
TX-31 John Carter R Safe R John Carter (i) Justin Early — — —
TX-32 Open D Safe R Jace Yarbrough Dan F. Barrios — — —
TX-36 Brian Babin R Safe R Brian Babin (i) Rhonda J Hart — — —
TX-38 Open R Safe R Jon Bonck Melissa McDonough — — —
UT-02 Open R Safe R Blake Moore (No Nominee) — — —
UT-03 Open R Safe R Celeste Maloy (No Nominee) — — —
UT-04 Open R Safe R Mike Kennedy Jonny Larsen 42.0% 33.0% R+9.0
VA-06 Ben Cline R Safe R Ben Cline (i) — — —
VA-09 Morgan Griffith R Safe R Morgan Griffith (i) Joy Powers — — —
WA-04 Open R Safe R Amanda McKinney John Duresky — — —
WA-05 Michael Baumgartner R Safe R Michael Baumgartner (i) Carmela Conroy — — —
WI-05 Scott Fitzgerald R Safe R Scott Fitzgerald (i) Andrew Beck — — —
WI-06 Glenn Grothman R Safe R Glenn Grothman (i) Bradley Smith 61.0% 39.0% R+22.0
WI-07 Open R Safe R Michael Alfonso Frederic Clark — — —
WI-08 Tony Wied R Safe R Tony Wied (i) Rick Crosson — — —
WV-01 Carol Miller R Safe R Carol Miller (i) Vince George — — —
WV-02 Riley Moore R Safe R Riley Moore (i) Ace Parsi — — —
WY-AL Open R Safe R Chuck Gray Lisa Kinney — — —

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About House Ratings

A race rating is the PollingSource average of the last three polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days (Toss-up under 3 points; Lean 3 to under 6; Likely 6 to under 10; Safe 10 or more). Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections stay on each race page. Their consensus is the rating only when the newest poll is older than 30 days. The "2024 margin" is the district's result in the last election, not an input to the rating.

Learn more about our methodology