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2026 House Elections

All 435 seats up for election

194 Projected 2026 House — 218 for majority 215
156 24 14
16
10
16 17 182
From current race ratings · Current House: 215D – 220R
Safe D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Unrated Lean R Likely R Safe R

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Safe D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Lean R Likely R Safe R Boundaries under litigation

Colors show the race rating (our polls where available, expert consensus otherwise — hover for the source) • Click a district for details • Click a dashed region to zoom

218 Seats Needed for Majority

Likely Dem (24)

Leans Dem (14)

Toss Up (16)

Leans GOP (16)

Likely GOP (17)

Current House: 215D - 220R

215
220
Democrats 218 for majority Republicans

Projected after the 2026 elections: 194D – 215R · 16 toss-ups (from current race ratings)

Latest House Polls

DistrictPollsterDateSampleDemRep
CA-22 SurveyUSA 2026-09-04 522 LV Marni Von Wilpert 45.00% Jim Desmond 42.00%
NM-02 SurveyUSA 2026-09-04 554 LV Gabe Vasquez 46.00% Greg Cunningham 43.00%
NM-02 Survey USA 2026-09-02 554 LV Gabe Vasquez 46.00% Greg Cunningham 43.00%
CA-48 SurveyUSA 2026-09-01 522 LV Marni von Wilpert 45.00% Jim Desmond 42.00%
TX-35 Normington Petts (D) partisan·D 2026-08-31 500 LV Johnny Garcia 44.00% Carlos De La Cruz 45.00%
FL-09 SEA Polling 2026-08-30 400 RV Darren Soto 41.00% Dan Green 41.00%
FL-16 Sea Polling 2026-08-29 400 LV Kelly Kirschner 40.00% Sydney Gruters 39.00%
FL-13 Hart Research Associates (D) 2026-08-27 500 LV Leela Gray 51.00% Anna 46.00%
AZ-02 GBAO (D) partisan·D 2026-08-24 500 LV Jonathan Nez 44.00% Eli Crane 46.00%
TN-05 Impact Research (D) partisan·D 2026-08-24 500 LV Chaz Molder 40.00% Andy Ogles 48.00%

29 House district poll(s) in the last 30 days. All recent House polls →

Competitive House Races (87 races)

Races rated Toss-up through Likely by the resolved poll-first rating — polled races first, closest spread on top

Toss-up (16)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
FL-22 Open Toss-up Casey Askar Pia Dandiya 50.0% 50.0% Even
NY-21 Open R Toss-up Anthony Thomas Constantino Blake Gendebien 42.7% 42.0% R+0.7
MI-07 Tom Barrett R Toss-up Tom Barrett (i) William Lawrence 47.0% 49.0% D+2.0
TX-34 Vicente Gonzalez D Toss-up Eric Flores Vicente Gonzalez (i) 42.0% 45.0% D+3.0
OH-01 Greg Landsman D Toss-up Eric Conroy Greg Landsman (i) 43.0% 47.0% D+4.0
TX-15 Monica De La Cruz R Toss-up Monica De La Cruz (i) Bobby Pulido 45.0% 50.0% D+5.0
TX-28 Henry Cuellar D Toss-up Tano Tijerina Henry Cuellar (i) 34.0% 45.0% D+11.0
AZ-01 Open R Toss-up Jay Feely Amish Shah — — —
AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani R Toss-up Juan Ciscomani (i) JoAnna Mendoza — — —
CA-22 David Valadao R Toss-up David Valadao (i) Randy Villegas — — —
CA-47 Dave Min D Toss-up Jenny Rae Le Roux Dave Min (i) — — —
ME-02 Open D Toss-up Paul LePage Matthew Dunlap — — —
OH-13 Emilia Sykes D Toss-up Carey Coleman Emilia Sykes (i) — — —
PA-07 Ryan Mackenzie R Toss-up Ryan Mackenzie (i) Bob Brooks — — —
PA-08 Rob Bresnahan R Toss-up Rob Bresnahan (i) Paige Cognetti — — —
VA-07 Eugene Vindman D Toss-up Douglas Ollivant Eugene Vindman (i) — — —

Lean Democrat (14)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
CA-48 Open R Lean D Jim Desmond Marni von Wilpert 42.0% 45.0% D+3.0
NM-02 Gabe Vasquez D Lean D Greg Cunningham Gabe Vasquez (i) 43.0% 46.0% D+3.0
CA-21 Jim Costa D Lean D Kyle Kirkland Jim Costa (i) — — —
CA-41 Open R Lean D Mitch Clemmons Linda Sánchez — — —
IL-14 Lauren Underwood D Lean D James Thomas Marter Lauren Underwood (i) — — —
IL-17 Eric Sorensen D Lean D Dillan Vancil Eric Sorensen (i) — — —
KS-03 Sharice Davids D Lean D Eric Jenkins Sharice Davids (i) — — —
MI-03 Hillary Scholten D Lean D Terri Deboer Hillary Scholten (i) — — —
MN-02 Angie Craig D Lean D TBD Matt Little — — —
NY-03 Tom Suozzi D Lean D Mike LiPetri Tom Suozzi (i) — — —
NY-18 Pat Ryan D Lean D Jackie Mary Auringer Pat Ryan (i) — — —
TX-07 Lizzie Fletcher D Lean D Alexander Hale Lizzie Fletcher (i) — — —
WA-03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D Lean D John Braun Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (i) — — —
WA-08 Kim Schrier D Lean D TBD TBD — — —

Lean Republican (16)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick R Lean R Brian Fitzpatrick (i) Bob Harvie 47.0% 43.0% R+4.0
FL-13 Anna Paulina Luna R Lean R Anna Paulina Luna (i) Leela J Gray 48.0% 42.5% R+5.5
CA-40 Young Kim R Lean R Ken Calvert (i) / Young Kim (i) — — — —
CO-08 Gabe Evans R Lean R Gabe Evans (i) Manny Rutinel — — —
FL-25 Jared Moskowitz D Lean R Scott M. Singer Jared Moskowitz (i) — — —
FL-27 María Elvira Salazar R Lean R María Elvira Salazar (i) Eliott Rodriguez — — —
FL-28 Open R Lean R Carlos Gimenez (i) TBD — — —
LA-06 Cleo Fields D Lean R TBD TBD — — —
NC-14 Tim Moore R Lean R Tim Moore (i) LaKesha Womack — — —
NJ-02 Jeff Van Drew R Lean R Jeff Van Drew (i) Zack Mullock — — —
NJ-07 Thomas Kean Jr. R Lean R Thomas Kean Jr. (i) Rebecca Bennett — — —
NY-01 Open R Lean R Lalota Nick (i) Chris Gallant — — —
NY-02 Andrew Garbarino R Lean R Andrew Garbarino (i) TBD — — —
NY-11 Nicole Malliotakis R Lean R Nicole Malliotakis (i) Michael DeCillis — — —
TX-23 Tony Gonzales R Lean R Brandon Herrera Katy Padilla Stout — — —
VA-02 Jen Kiggans R Lean R Jen Kiggans (i) Elaine Luria — — —

Likely Democrat (24)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
AZ-04 Greg Stanton D Likely D Zuhdi Jasser Greg Stanton (i) — — —
CA-01 Open R Likely D James Gallagher Mike McGuire — — —
CA-03 Open R Likely D Robb Tucker Ami Bera (i) — — —
CA-06 Open D Likely D Kevin Kiley (O) Richard Pan — — —
CA-24 Salud Carbajal D Likely D Bob Smith Salud Carbajal (i) — — —
CA-25 Raul Ruiz D Likely D Joe Males Raul Ruiz (i) — — —
CO-06 Jason Crow D Likely D Bemelekot W Tewahade Jason Crow (i) — — —
CO-07 Brittany Pettersen D Likely D Tim Bennett Brittany Pettersen (i) — — —
CT-05 Jahana Hayes D Likely D Chris Shea Jahana Hayes (i) — — —
IL-06 Sean Casten D Likely D Niki Conforti Sean Casten (i) — — —
IL-11 Bill Foster D Likely D Jeff Walter Bill Foster (i) — — —
IL-13 Nikki Budzinski D Likely D Jeff Wilson Nikki Budzinski (i) — — —
MI-11 Open D Likely D TBD Jeremy Moss — — —
MN-03 Kelly Morrison D Likely D Tyler Bass Kelly Morrison (i) — — —
NH-01 Chris Pappas D Likely D TBD TBD — — —
NJ-03 Herb Conaway D Likely D Michael McGuire Herb Conaway (i) — — —
NJ-05 Josh Gottheimer D Likely D TBD Josh Gottheimer (i) — — —
NJ-11 Analilia Mejia D Likely D Joe Hathaway Analilia Mejia (i) — — —
NV-03 Susie Lee D Likely D Martin O'Donnell Susie Lee (i) — — —
NV-04 Steven Horsford D Likely D Cody K Whipple Steven Horsford (i) — — —
OR-06 Andrea Salinas D Likely D David Honorable Russ Andrea Salinas (i) — — —
PA-06 Chrissy Houlahan D Likely D Marty Young Chrissy Houlahan (i) — — —
PA-17 Chris Deluzio D Likely D Tony Guy Chris Deluzio (i) — — —
VA-10 Suhas Subramanyam D Likely D David Beckwith Suhas Subramanyam (i) — — —

Likely Republican (17)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
FL-16 Vern Buchanan R Likely R Sydney Gruters Kelly Kirschner 39.0% 40.0% D+1.0
KY-06 Open R Likely R Ralph A Alvarado Zach Dembo 44.0% 45.0% D+1.0
AR-02 French Hill R Likely R French Hill (i) Chris Jones 44.0% 48.0% D+4.0
AL-02 Shomari Figures D Likely R Rhett Marques Shomari Figures (i) — — —
FL-09 Darren Soto D Likely R TBD Darren Soto (i) — — —
FL-14 Kathy Castor D Likely R Mike Beltran Kathy Castor (i) — — —
IA-01 Mariannette Miller-Meeks R Likely R Mariannette Miller-Meeks (i) Christina Bohannan — — —
IA-02 Open R Likely R Joe Mitchell Lindsay James — — —
IA-03 Zach Nunn R Likely R Zach Nunn (i) Sarah Trone Garriott — — —
MN-01 Brad Finstad R Likely R Brad Finstad (i) Jacob Johnson — — —
MT-01 Open R Likely R Aaron Flint Sam Forstag — — —
NC-03 Greg Murphy R Likely R Greg Murphy (i) Raymond Smith Jr. — — —
NY-04 Laura Gillen D Likely R Jeanine Driscoll Laura Gillen — — —
SC-01 Open R Likely R Jenny Costa Honeycutt Nancy Lacore — — —
TX-09 Open D Likely R Alex Mealer Leticia Gutierrez — — —
TX-35 Open D Likely R Carlos De La Cruz Jr Johnny Garcia — — —
WI-03 Derrick Van Orden R Likely R Derrick Van Orden (i) Rebecca Cooke — — —

Browse All Districts by State

Click a state to see all congressional districts

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About House Ratings

A race rating is the 30-day PollingSource average when enough polls exist (Toss-up under 3 points; Lean 3 to under 6; Likely 6 to under 10; Safe 10 or more). One poll never sets the rating by itself. Expert consensus from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections is the fallback when polls are missing. The "2024 margin" is the district's result in the last election, not an input to the rating.

Learn more about our methodology

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