Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 61,189 | 47.8% | |
| David B. Leslie | 1,428 | 1.1% | |
| Carol “Kitty” Hafner | 700 | 0.6% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan S. Sullivan | 55,461 | 93.9% | |
| Gerald L. Heikes | 1,389 | 2.4% | |
| Heather McElwain | 761 | 1.3% | |
| Dustin Thomas House Darden | 635 | 1.1% | |
| Richard B. Mayers | 465 | 0.8% | |
| Fred C. Grauberger | 375 | 0.6% |
Alaska Independence Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earl D. “Skip” Southworth | 621 | 0.5% |
Green Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Grayson | 302 | 0.2% |
Libertarian Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott A. Kohlhaas | 612 | 0.5% |
Nonpartisan Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reece J. Roberts | 435 | 0.3% | |
| Shirley A. Saucerman | 228 | 0.2% |
Undeclared Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney “Sid” Hill | 346 | 0.3% |
Full calendar and every race: Alaska primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Dan S. Sullivan Nominee Incumbent
Republican
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D 2024 err 2.0 | 2026-10-15 | 578 RV | Mary Peltola 48.00% | Dan S. Sullivan 47.00% | |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) 2024 err 1.9 | 2026-10-10 | 1200 LV | ±2.80 | Mary Peltola 48.00% | Dan S. Sullivan 43.00% |
| Alaska Survey Research partisan·D | 2026-10-03 | 1512 LV | ±3.00 | Mary Peltola 47.00% | Dan S. Sullivan 45.00% |
| New York Times/Siena University 2024 err 3.1 | 2026-10-01 | 504 LV | ±5.10 | Mary Peltola 50.00% | Dan S. Sullivan 43.00% |
| Quantus Insights (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-30 | 758 LV | ±4.00 | Mary Peltola 46.00% | Dan S. Sullivan 46.00% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8 | 2026-09-24 | 1079 LV | ±2.90 | Mary Peltola 46.00% | Dan S. Sullivan 47.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Mary Peltola leads Dan S. Sullivan 47.7% to 45% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+2.7 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Alaska Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Alaska Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Public Policy Polling (D) (completed October 15, 2026), found Mary Peltola (D) at 48% and Dan S. Sullivan (R) at 47%.
When is the 2026 Alaska Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Two-term incumbent
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- NORTH STAR Dem-aligned $11,921,029
- LAST FRONTIER PAC GOP-aligned $8,677,358
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $8,487,191
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $6,751,295
- WINSENATE Dem-aligned $3,613,232
- WOMEN VOTE Dem-aligned $3,586,018
- FORWARD ALASKA Dem-aligned $2,200,020
- MIDNIGHT SUN PAC Dem-aligned $2,094,796
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $1,665,573
- ALASKA VALUES PAC Mixed $1,420,559
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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