InsiderAdvantage
129 scored general-election polls (2014–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 41 | 1.9 pts | D+1.2 | 94% |
| 2022 | 40 | 4.7 pts | R+3.2 | 72% |
| 2021 | 1 | 0.1 pts | R+0.1 | 100% |
| 2020 | 20 | 3.0 pts | D+0.2 | 47% |
| 2018 | 2 | 1.5 pts | D+1.5 | 50% |
| 2017 | 2 | 2.3 pts | D+2.3 | 50% |
| 2016 | 15 | 3.3 pts | D+3.3 | 64% |
| 2014 | 8 | 5.6 pts | D+4.9 | 75% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | MN Senate | 1200 LV | Peggy Flanagan 46.00% – Michele Tafoya 45.00% | D+1.0 |
| 2026-09-29 | SC Senate | 1200 LV | Annie Andrews 45.00% – Darline Graham 46.00% | R+1.0 |
| 2026-09-29 | OH Senate | 1200 LV | Sherrod Brown 44.00% – Jon Husted 43.00% | D+1.0 |
| 2026-09-29 | MN Senate | 1200 LV | Peggy Flanagan 46.00% – Michele Tafoya 45.00% | D+1.0 |
| 2026-09-23 | GA Governor | 1200 LV | Keisha Lance Bottoms 46.00% – Rick Jackson 48.00% | R+2.0 |
| 2026-09-23 | GA Senate | 1200 LV | Jon Ossoff 50.00% – Mike Collins 42.00% | D+8.0 |
| 2026-09-23 | GA Governor | 1200 LV | Keisha Lance Bottoms 46.00% – Rick Jackson 48.00% | R+2.0 |
| 2026-09-23 | GA Senate | 1200 LV | Jon Ossoff 50.00% – Mike Collins 42.00% | D+8.0 |
| 2026-09-23 | ME Senate | 1200 LV | Jackson 46.00% – Collins 46.00% | Even |
| 2026-09-23 | IA Senate | 1200 LV | Turek 47.00% – Hinson 46.00% | D+1.0 |
| 2026-09-21 | FL Senate | 600 LV | Angie Nixon 42.00% – Ashley Moody 49.00% | R+7.0 |
| 2026-09-21 | FL Senate | 600 LV | Angie Nixon 42.00% – Ashley Moody 49.00% | R+7.0 |
| 2026-09-18 | NH Senate | 1200 LV | Pappas 48.00% – Sununu 40.00% | D+8.0 |
| 2026-09-18 | MI Senate | 1200 LV | ElSayed 47.00% – Rogers 45.00% | D+2.0 |
| 2026-09-18 | NC Senate | 1200 LV | Cooper 48.00% – Whatley 43.00% | D+5.0 |
| 2026-09-09 | TX Senate | 1200 LV | James Talarico 47.00% – Ken Paxton 46.00% | D+1.0 |
| 2026-09-09 | SC Senate | 1200 LV | Annie Andrews 43.00% – Darline Graham 45.00% | R+2.0 |
| 2026-09-09 | OH Senate | 1200 LV | Sherrod Brown 47.00% – Jon Husted 42.00% | D+5.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | IA President | R+6.0 | R+13.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | GA President | R+1.0 | R+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-03 | GA President | R+1.0 | R+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | AZ President | R+3.0 | R+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | AZ President | R+3.0 | R+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | WI President | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | WI President | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-11-02 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-11-02 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-27 | WI President | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-27 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-27 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-21 | NV President | Even | R+3.1 | 3.1 | — |
| 2024-10-21 | NV President | Even | R+3.1 | 3.1 | — |
| 2024-10-21 | AZ President | R+3.0 | R+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-20 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-15 | GA President | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-09 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-10-09 | MI President | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-08 | PA President | R+2.0 | R+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-30 | NC President | R+1.0 | R+3.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-30 | NV President | R+1.0 | R+3.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-30 | GA President | Even | R+2.2 | 2.2 | — |
| 2024-09-30 | AZ President | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-15 | PA President | R+2.0 | R+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-12 | WI President | D+2.0 | R+0.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-12 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-31 | NC President | R+1.0 | R+3.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-31 | NV President | R+1.0 | R+3.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-31 | GA President | Even | R+2.2 | 2.2 | — |
| 2024-08-30 | AZ President | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-19 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-08 | WI President | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-08 | MI President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-07-16 | NV President | R+10.0 | R+3.1 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-16 | AZ President | R+6.0 | R+5.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-16 | PA President | R+7.0 | R+1.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-12-04 | GA Senate | D+2.1 | D+2.8 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-06 | GA Governor | R+5.0 | R+7.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-06 | GA Senate | R+2.0 | D+1.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-05 | NH Governor | R+15.3 | R+15.5 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-05 | NH Senate | D+1.8 | D+9.1 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | NV Governor | R+5.2 | R+1.5 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | NV Senate | R+6.0 | D+0.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-03 | PA Governor | D+7.7 | D+14.8 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-03 | PA Senate | R+2.3 | D+4.9 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-02 | AZ Governor | R+3.0 | D+0.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-02 | AZ Senate | Even | D+4.9 | 4.9 | — |
| 2022-11-01 | FL Governor | R+10.0 | R+19.4 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-01 | FL Senate | R+6.0 | R+16.4 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-31 | WA Senate | D+1.6 | D+14.5 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-30 | MI Governor | R+0.2 | D+10.5 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-27 | GA Governor | R+8.4 | R+7.5 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-27 | GA Senate | R+2.2 | D+1.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-26 | PA Governor | D+8.4 | D+14.8 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | PA Senate | R+2.7 | D+4.9 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-25 | National Generic Ballot | R+4.7 | R+2.6 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-24 | AZ Governor | R+11.0 | D+0.7 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-24 | AZ Senate | D+2.0 | D+4.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-23 | NH Governor | R+16.9 | R+15.5 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-23 | NH Senate | D+0.5 | D+9.1 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-20 | NV Governor | R+5.7 | R+1.5 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-20 | NV Senate | R+1.9 | D+0.8 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-19 | PA Governor | D+6.3 | D+14.8 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-19 | PA Senate | D+0.8 | D+4.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-17 | GA-2 House | D+3.3 | D+10.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | GA Governor | R+7.4 | R+7.5 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | GA Senate | D+2.9 | D+1.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | MI Governor | D+0.5 | D+10.5 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | AZ Governor | R+3.7 | D+0.7 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-11 | AZ Senate | D+4.4 | D+4.9 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-04 | GA Governor | R+5.6 | R+7.5 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-04 | GA Senate | D+3.6 | D+1.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-03 | National Generic Ballot | R+2.1 | R+2.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-23 | PA Governor | D+14.8 | D+14.8 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-23 | PA Senate | D+3.1 | D+4.9 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-20 | NV Senate | R+2.9 | D+0.8 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2021-10-29 | VA Governor | R+2.0 | R+1.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2021-01-03 | GA Senate | R+0.1 | D+1.2 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 2021-01-03 | GA Senate | R+0.5 | D+2.1 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-12-21 | GA Senate | R+1.9 | D+1.2 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-12-21 | GA Senate | D+1.2 | D+2.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-14 | GA Senate | R+1.2 | D+1.2 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-12-14 | GA Senate | R+1.2 | D+2.1 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-11-16 | GA Senate | Even | D+1.2 | 1.2 | — |
| 2020-11-16 | GA Senate | D+1.0 | D+2.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-11-01 | GA President | R+2.0 | D+0.2 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-11-01 | FL President | R+1.2 | R+3.4 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | IA Senate | R+5.6 | R+6.6 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | PA President | R+1.3 | D+1.2 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-30 | NC President | R+4.4 | R+1.4 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | MI President | D+2.1 | D+2.8 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | IA President | R+1.7 | R+8.2 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | PA President | R+2.9 | D+1.2 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-18 | IA Senate | D+4.7 | R+6.6 | 11.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-18 | IA President | D+0.5 | R+8.2 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-12 | PA President | D+3.2 | D+1.2 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-06 | FL President | R+3.0 | R+3.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | GA Governor | D+0.9 | R+1.4 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-21 | GA Governor | R+0.7 | R+1.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-09 | AL Senate | D+2.3 | D+1.6 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2017-06-14 | GA-6 House | D+0.3 | R+3.6 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-05 | FL President | D+2.0 | R+1.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-02 | GA President | R+3.8 | R+5.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | GA Senate | R+10.8 | R+13.8 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | FL President | D+4.3 | R+1.2 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | FL Senate | R+3.6 | R+7.7 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-20 | GA President | R+4.0 | R+5.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-20 | FL President | D+4.0 | R+1.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-20 | FL Senate | Even | R+7.7 | 7.7 | — |
| 2016-10-20 | GA Senate | R+9.4 | R+13.8 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | FL President | D+2.8 | R+1.2 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-10 | FL Senate | R+3.6 | R+7.7 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-28 | FL President | D+0.3 | R+1.2 | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-28 | FL Senate | R+4.2 | R+7.7 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-14 | GA President | R+4.3 | R+5.1 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-14 | GA Senate | R+12.9 | R+13.8 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-01 | GA Governor | R+3.0 | R+7.9 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-01 | GA Senate | R+3.0 | R+7.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | GA Governor | D+0.1 | R+7.9 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-21 | GA Senate | D+2.4 | R+7.7 | 10.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-30 | GA Governor | R+1.0 | R+7.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-30 | GA Senate | R+4.0 | R+7.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-10 | GA Governor | R+4.0 | R+7.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-10 | GA Senate | R+10.3 | R+7.7 | 2.6 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.