Primary
Primary held March 3, 2026.
Democratic Primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico ✓ | 1,216,412 | 52.4% | |
| Jasmine Crockett | 1,071,900 | 46.2% | |
| Ahmad Hassan | 30,875 | 1.3% |
Republican Primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn | 910,382 | 42.0% | |
| Ken Paxton | 878,564 | 40.5% | |
| Wesley Hunt | 293,250 | 13.5% | |
| Sara Canady | 26,355 | 1.2% | |
| Anna Bender | 24,167 | 1.1% | |
| Gulrez Khan | 15,873 | 0.7% | |
| John Adefope | 9,284 | 0.4% | |
| Virgil Bierschwale | 9,035 | 0.4% |
Republican Primary Runoff
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton ✓ | 455,582 | 62.8% | |
| John Cornyn | 269,685 | 37.2% |
Full calendar and every race: Texas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A2 Insights | 2026-06-28 | 618 LV | ±5.30 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 46.00% |
| New York Times/Siena University ±3.1 | 2026-06-27 | 656 LV | ±4.50 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 47.00% |
| SoCal Strategies (R) partisan·R | 2026-06-21 | 800 LV | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 49.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 45.4% to 44.8% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+0.6 margin based on 9 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 Texas Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Texas Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from A2 Insights (completed June 28, 2026), found James Talarico (D) at 48% and Ken Paxton (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 Texas Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Four-term incumbent Incumbent John Cornyn lost the 2026 Republican primary runoff to Ken Paxton; no incumbent is on the November ballot.
Independent Expenditures Updated 6 hours ago
Top Spenders
- TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY $5,301,833
- LONE STAR RISING PAC $4,475,994
- LONE STAR LIBERTY PAC $3,547,094
- FIGHTING FOR TEXAS $700,000
- CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. $514,600
- NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $506,022
- FORWARD TEXAS $505,024
- ASSOCIATION OF TEXAS CONSERVATIVES $275,415
- TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $198,607
- TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND $91,900
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →