Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico ✓ | 1,212,945 | 53.2% | |
| Jasmine Crockett | 1,068,822 | 46.8% |
Republican Runoff
Held May 26, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton ✓ | 890,449 | 63.8% | |
| John Cornyn | 504,329 | 36.2% |
Full calendar and every race: Texas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Each point is a poll. The published PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days.
Share
Race page
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R ±1.8 | 2026-10-08 | 1086 LV | ±2.90 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| YouGov | 2026-10-05 | 3625 LV | ±3.00 | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| New York Times/Siena University ±3.1 | 2026-09-30 | 615 LV | ±4.50 | James Talarico 51.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Rasmussen Reports ±2.1 | 2026-09-29 | 1128 LV | ±3.00 | James Talarico 46.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) ±2.3 | 2026-09-28 | 881 LV | ±3.00 | James Talarico 51.00% | Ken Paxton 49.00% |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy partisan·R | 2026-09-28 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 2026-09-28 | 850 LV | ±4.50 | James Talarico 45.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-27 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | James Talarico 45.00% | Ken Paxton 48.00% |
| Big Data Poll | 2026-09-26 | 698 LV | ±4.00 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) partisan·R R-sponsored | 2026-09-24 | 856 LV | ±3.50 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 48.00% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | 2026-09-22 | 1007 LV | ±3.60 | James Talarico 49.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| Marist University | 2026-09-20 | 1139 RV | ±4.40 | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| Texas Southern University | 2026-09-19 | 1800 LV | ±2.30 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 46.00% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R ±1.8 | 2026-09-17 | 1079 LV | ±2.90 | James Talarico 46.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Emerson ±2.7 | 2026-09-14 | 1000 LV | ±3.00 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 46.00% |
| SoCal Strategies (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-13 | 649 LV | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% | |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-09-11 | 614 LV | ±4.30 | James Talarico 49.00% | Ken Paxton 43.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 48.5% to 44% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+4.5 margin based on 2 polls from the most recent week of polls ending in the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 Texas Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean D, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Texas Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Trafalgar Group (R) (completed October 8, 2026), found James Talarico (D) at 47% and Ken Paxton (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 Texas Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of scientific public polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days. One poll in that week is the average. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists the polls from that window. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Four-term incumbent Incumbent John Cornyn lost the 2026 Republican primary runoff to Ken Paxton; no incumbent is on the November ballot.
Independent Expenditures Updated 1 hour ago
Top Spenders
- TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY GOP-aligned $5,301,833
- LONE STAR RISING PAC GOP-aligned $4,475,994
- LONE STAR LIBERTY PAC Dem-aligned $3,547,094
- FIGHTING FOR TEXAS Dem-aligned $700,000
- CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. GOP-aligned $514,600
- NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE GOP-aligned $505,422
- FORWARD TEXAS Dem-aligned $505,024
- ASSOCIATION OF TEXAS CONSERVATIVES GOP-aligned $288,958
- TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE Dem-aligned $198,607
- TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND GOP-aligned $91,900
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →