Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico ✓ | 1,216,412 | 53.2% | |
| Jasmine Crockett | 1,071,900 | 46.8% |
Republican Runoff
Held May 26, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton ✓ | 455,582 | 62.8% | |
| John Cornyn | 269,685 | 37.2% |
Full calendar and every race: Texas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.
Share
Race page
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overton Insights (R) R-sponsored | 2026-08-26 | 1167 LV | ±2.90 | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 50.00% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | 2026-08-24 | 1000 LV | ±3.30 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 42.00% |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 2026-08-13 | 1200 RV | ±2.83 | James Talarico 42.00% | Ken Paxton 39.00% |
| Emerson ±2.7 | 2026-08-10 | 1000 LV | ±3.00 | James Talarico 46.00% | Ken Paxton 47.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 46.5% to 44.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+2.0 margin based on 4 polls from the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 Texas Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Texas Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Overton Insights (R) (completed August 26, 2026), found James Talarico (D) at 50% and Ken Paxton (R) at 50%.
When is the 2026 Texas Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Four-term incumbent Incumbent John Cornyn lost the 2026 Republican primary runoff to Ken Paxton; no incumbent is on the November ballot.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY GOP-aligned $5,301,833
- LONE STAR RISING PAC GOP-aligned $4,475,994
- LONE STAR LIBERTY PAC Dem-aligned $3,547,094
- FIGHTING FOR TEXAS Dem-aligned $700,000
- CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. GOP-aligned $514,600
- NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE GOP-aligned $505,422
- FORWARD TEXAS Dem-aligned $505,024
- ASSOCIATION OF TEXAS CONSERVATIVES GOP-aligned $288,958
- TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE Dem-aligned $198,607
- TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND GOP-aligned $91,900
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →