Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico ✓ | 1,212,945 | 53.2% | |
| Jasmine Crockett | 1,068,822 | 46.8% |
Republican Runoff
Held May 26, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton ✓ | 890,449 | 63.8% | |
| John Cornyn | 504,329 | 36.2% |
Full calendar and every race: Texas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 2026-10-14 | 400 LV | ±4.90 | James Talarico 52.00% | Ken Paxton 48.00% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) 2024 err 1.9 | 2026-10-14 | 1200 LV | ±2.80 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 49.00% |
| Marist University | 2026-10-11 | LV | ±4.90 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Quantus Insights partisan·R | 2026-10-11 | 854 LV | ±3.60 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 47.00% |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-10-08 | 617 LV | ±4.40 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8 | 2026-10-08 | 1086 LV | ±2.90 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 2026-10-05 | 861 LV | ±3.30 | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 47.00% |
| YouGov | 2026-10-05 | 3625 LV | ±3.00 | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| New York Times/Siena University 2024 err 3.1 | 2026-09-30 | 615 LV | ±4.50 | James Talarico 51.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Rasmussen Reports 2024 err 2.1 | 2026-09-29 | 1128 LV | ±3.00 | James Talarico 46.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy (R) partisan·R R-sponsored | 2026-09-28 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 2026-09-28 | 850 LV | ±4.50 | James Talarico 45.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) 2024 err 2.3 | 2026-09-28 | 881 LV | ±3.00 | James Talarico 51.00% | Ken Paxton 49.00% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-27 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | James Talarico 45.00% | Ken Paxton 48.00% |
| Big Data Poll | 2026-09-26 | 698 LV | ±4.00 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) partisan·R R-sponsored | 2026-09-24 | 856 LV | ±3.50 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 48.00% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | 2026-09-22 | 1007 LV | ±3.60 | James Talarico 49.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| Marist University | 2026-09-20 | 1139 RV | ±4.40 | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| Texas Southern University | 2026-09-19 | 1800 LV | ±2.30 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 46.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 49% to 47.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+1.7 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Texas Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Texas Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from ActiVote (completed October 14, 2026), found James Talarico (D) at 52% and Ken Paxton (R) at 48%.
When is the 2026 Texas Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Four-term incumbent Incumbent John Cornyn lost the 2026 Republican primary runoff to Ken Paxton; no incumbent is on the November ballot.
Independent Expenditures Updated 2 hours ago
Top Spenders
- TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY GOP-aligned $5,301,833
- LONE STAR RISING PAC GOP-aligned $4,475,994
- LONE STAR LIBERTY PAC Dem-aligned $3,547,094
- FIGHTING FOR TEXAS Dem-aligned $700,000
- CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. GOP-aligned $514,600
- NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE GOP-aligned $505,422
- FORWARD TEXAS Dem-aligned $505,024
- ASSOCIATION OF TEXAS CONSERVATIVES GOP-aligned $288,958
- TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE Dem-aligned $198,607
- TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND GOP-aligned $91,900
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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