Minnesota Senate Race

2026 Election • Class 2
Back to Senate Races

Primary

Democratic Primary

Held August 11, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Peggy Flanagan 411,797 58.8%
Angie Craig 274,891 39.3%
Kurt Michael Anderson 5,121 0.7%
Peter John Murgic
99% reporting

Republican Primary

Held August 11, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Michele Tafoya 211,848 51.1%
Adam Schwarze 98,472 23.8%
Royce White 45,539 11.0%
Ahmad R. (Raafat) Hassan
Cynthia Gail
Bob "Again" Carney Jr.
99% reporting

Full calendar and every race: Minnesota primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Tina Smith)
Party
Democrat
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Lean D our polls
Polls
2 polls

PollingSource Rating

Lean D
Our polling average D+5.0 · 2 polls

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.

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Expert Ratings

Cook Political Report

Lean D
Changed from Likely D on Feb 1

Inside Elections

Lean D

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Leans D
Changed from Lean D on Feb 1

Candidates

Peggy Flanagan Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $6,517,348
Cash on Hand: $1,058,604

Michele Tafoya Nominee

Republican
Total Raised: $5,337,942
Cash on Hand: $1,372,728

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
48.0%
Republican
43.0%
Margin
D+5.0
Last Poll
Aug 28, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
SurveyUSA 2026-08-28 661 LV Peggy Flanagan 46.00% Michele Tafoya 41.00%
Deep Root Analytics (R) partisan·R 2026-08-18 597 RV ±4.00 Peggy Flanagan 50.00% Michele Tafoya 45.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?

Peggy Flanagan leads Michele Tafoya 48% to 43% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+5.0 margin based on 2 polls from the last 30 days.

Is the 2026 Minnesota Senate race competitive?

Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean D: Democrats are favored, but the race is competitive.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 Minnesota Senate race say?

The most recent public poll, from SurveyUSA (completed August 28, 2026), found Peggy Flanagan (D) at 46% and Michele Tafoya (R) at 41%.

When is the 2026 Minnesota Senate race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Smith retiring

Independent Expenditures Updated just now

$22,090,638
Total IE Spending
$12,386,784
Support
$9,703,854
Oppose

Top Spenders

Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →

Race News