Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 11, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan ✓ | 411,797 | 58.8% | |
| Angie Craig | 274,891 | 39.3% | |
| Kurt Michael Anderson | 5,121 | 0.7% | |
| Peter John Murgic | — | — |
Republican Primary
Held August 11, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michele Tafoya ✓ | 211,848 | 51.1% | |
| Adam Schwarze | 98,472 | 23.8% | |
| Royce White | 45,539 | 11.0% | |
| Ahmad R. (Raafat) Hassan | — | — | |
| Cynthia Gail | — | — | |
| Bob "Again" Carney Jr. | — | — |
Full calendar and every race: Minnesota primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2026-08-28 | 661 LV | Peggy Flanagan 46.00% | Michele Tafoya 41.00% | |
| Deep Root Analytics (R) partisan·R | 2026-08-18 | 597 RV | ±4.00 | Peggy Flanagan 50.00% | Michele Tafoya 45.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?
Peggy Flanagan leads Michele Tafoya 48% to 43% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+5.0 margin based on 2 polls from the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 Minnesota Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean D: Democrats are favored, but the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Minnesota Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from SurveyUSA (completed August 28, 2026), found Peggy Flanagan (D) at 46% and Michele Tafoya (R) at 41%.
When is the 2026 Minnesota Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Smith retiring
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- NORTH STAR DAWN PAC Mixed $14,455,596
- DLGA Mixed $3,194,679
- MINNESOTANS FOR PROGRESS PAC Dem-aligned $1,781,250
- CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE Dem-aligned $1,229,750
- UNITE TO WIN GOP-aligned $1,000,000
- CLEAR VOICE MINNESOTA Mixed $320,400
- INDIVISIBLE ACTION Dem-aligned $32,720
- NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION Dem-aligned $24,617
- BLUE FIGHT PAC Dem-aligned $20,000
- SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION POLITICAL EDUCATION AND ACTION FUND Dem-aligned $16,147
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →