Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 11, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan ✓ | 411,911 | 58.8% | |
| Angie Craig | 274,988 | 39.3% | |
| Kurt Michael Anderson | 5,124 | 0.7% | |
| Billy Nord | 3,263 | 0.5% | |
| George H Kalberer | 2,827 | 0.4% | |
| Peter John Murgic | 2,548 | 0.4% |
Republican Primary
Held August 11, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michele Tafoya ✓ | 211,906 | 51.1% | |
| Adam Schwarze | 98,512 | 23.8% | |
| Royce White | 45,549 | 11.0% | |
| Tom Weiler | 24,927 | 6.0% | |
| Joyce Lacey | 8,457 | 2.0% | |
| Patrick Munro | 8,124 | 2.0% | |
| Bob "Again" Carney Jr. | 7,265 | 1.8% | |
| Cynthia Gail | 7,109 | 1.7% | |
| Ahmad R. (Raafat) Hassan | 2,966 | 0.7% |
Full calendar and every race: Minnesota primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8 | 2026-10-15 | 1079 LV | ±2.90 | Peggy Flanagan 48.00% | Michele Tafoya 45.00% |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA 2024 err 3.2 | 2026-10-12 | 718 LV | ±4.20 | Peggy Flanagan 45.00% | Michele Tafoya 42.00% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2026-10-07 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | Peggy Flanagan 47.00% | Michele Tafoya 43.00% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) 2024 err 2.1 | 2026-10-07 | 856 LV | ±3.00 | Peggy Flanagan 48.00% | Michele Tafoya 45.00% |
| Morning Consult (D) 2024 err 4.0 | 2026-10-07 | 1000 RV | ±3.10 | Peggy Flanagan 45.00% | Michele Tafoya 41.00% |
| GQR (D) partisan·D | 2026-10-04 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | Peggy Flanagan 53.00% | Michele Tafoya 44.00% |
| Big Data Poll (R) | 2026-09-30 | 622 LV | ±4.00 | Peggy Flanagan 40.00% | Michele Tafoya 38.00% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) 2024 err 1.9 | 2026-09-29 | 1200 LV | ±3.00 | Peggy Flanagan 46.00% | Michele Tafoya 45.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?
Peggy Flanagan leads Michele Tafoya 46.7% to 43.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+3.4 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Minnesota Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean D, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Minnesota Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Trafalgar Group (R) (completed October 15, 2026), found Peggy Flanagan (D) at 48% and Michele Tafoya (R) at 45%.
When is the 2026 Minnesota Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Smith retiring
Independent Expenditures Updated 3 hours ago
Top Spenders
- NORTH STAR DAWN PAC Mixed $15,409,187
- DLGA Mixed $3,174,424
- MINNESOTANS FOR PROGRESS PAC Dem-aligned $1,781,250
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $1,380,156
- CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE Dem-aligned $1,229,750
- UNITE TO WIN GOP-aligned $1,000,000
- MINNESOTA FORWARD GOP-aligned $783,361
- CLEAR VOICE MINNESOTA Mixed $208,000
- WORKING AMERICA Dem-aligned $72,500
- INDIVISIBLE ACTION Dem-aligned $37,439
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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