Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamilton ✓ | 76,970 | 34.8% | |
| Christy Davis | 31,366 | 14.2% | |
| Noah Taylor | 29,899 | 13.5% | |
| Anne Parelkar | 3,352 | 8.0% | |
| Damon Anderson | — | — |
Republican Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Marshall ✓ | 267,887 | 79.8% | |
| Pond Naramore | 67,780 | 20.2% |
Full calendar and every race: Kansas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Roger Marshall Nominee Incumbent
Republican
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R) 2024 err 1.9 | 2026-10-14 | 1200 LV | ±2.80 | Adam Hamilton 47.00% | Roger Marshall 48.00% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) 2024 err 1.9 | 2026-10-10 | 1200 LV | ±2.80 | Adam Hamilton 48.00% | Roger Marshall 47.00% |
| GBAO (D) partisan·D | 2026-10-04 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Adam Hamilton 46.00% | Roger Marshall 41.00% |
| YouGov | 2026-10-04 | 2255 LV | ±3.20 | Adam Hamilton 48.00% | Roger Marshall 45.00% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8 | 2026-10-01 | 1095 LV | ±2.90 | Adam Hamilton 44.00% | Roger Marshall 44.00% |
| New York Times/Siena University 2024 err 3.1 | 2026-09-30 | 605 LV | ±4.60 | Adam Hamilton 45.00% | Roger Marshall 45.00% |
| Wedgewood Polls | 2026-09-24 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Adam Hamilton 50.00% | Roger Marshall 48.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Kansas Senate race?
Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall 47% to 45.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+1.7 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Kansas Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Kansas Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from InsiderAdvantage (R) (completed October 14, 2026), found Adam Hamilton (D) at 47% and Roger Marshall (R) at 48%.
When is the 2026 Kansas Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
First-term Class II incumbent (Moran holds the other seat, up 2028)
Independent Expenditures Updated 28 min ago
Top Spenders
- PEOPLE OVER POLITICS ACTION FUND Dem-aligned $8,004,761
- THE 1861 INITIATIVE Dem-aligned $3,451,119
- WINSENATE Dem-aligned $3,345,622
- THE EDGE ACTION FUND Dem-aligned $2,475,000
- MAIN STREET FUND GOP-aligned $2,351,724
- CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION GOP-aligned $2,151,528
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $2,031,340
- LOWER COSTS NOW Dem-aligned $1,900,972
- WIN IT BACK PAC GOP-aligned $1,536,802
- NEW DEAL FOR ALL, INC. Dem-aligned $908,610
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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