Pollster Track Records — 2018
Overall 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014
Every firm's 2018 general-election polls scored against the certified results: average margin error, directional lean (positive = ran more Democratic than the result), and how often the poll's leader won. Firms with fewer than 3 scored polls aren't listed. Method details on the methodology page.
| Pollster | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena University | 94 | 4.6 pts | R+2.2 | 68% |
| Emerson College | 88 | 5.1 pts | R+0.2 | 85% |
| Change Research partisan·D | 60 | 5.6 pts | D+1.7 | 84% |
| Ipsos | 44 | 4.4 pts | D+0.6 | 77% |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 41 | 3.4 pts | R+0.4 | 78% |
| SurveyUSA | 30 | 5.2 pts | R+1.9 | 75% |
| Gravis Marketing | 29 | 5.3 pts | R+0.2 | 64% |
| Marist | 29 | 4.2 pts | D+1.9 | 71% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 26 | 4.5 pts | D+3.4 | 87% |
| YouGov | 26 | 2.7 pts | R+1.2 | 96% |
| SSRS | 25 | 5.9 pts | D+4.7 | 72% |
| Public Policy Polling partisan·D | 24 | 3.8 pts | D+0.4 | 86% |
| Quinnipiac | 23 | 4.6 pts | D+0.4 | 74% |
| Research Co. | 21 | 4.1 pts | R+1.1 | 90% |
| Vox Populi Polling | 21 | 5.0 pts | D+2.9 | 79% |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 20 | 5.3 pts | R+3.4 | 79% |
| Trafalgar Group partisan·R | 19 | 5.0 pts | R+2.7 | 68% |
| Rasmussen Reports | 15 | 4.4 pts | R+2.9 | 77% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 14 | 3.2 pts | R+1.3 | 69% |
| Morning Consult | 14 | 3.1 pts | R+0.7 | 100% |
| St. Pete Polls | 14 | 2.6 pts | D+2.1 | 43% |
| Suffolk University | 13 | 4.1 pts | D+1.7 | 77% |
| GBAO partisan·D | 12 | 3.5 pts | R+1.7 | 82% |
| Impact Research partisan·D | 12 | 3.2 pts | D+2.1 | 92% |
| Global Strategy Group partisan·D | 10 | 4.0 pts | D+2.5 | 90% |
| Mitchell Research | 10 | 2.7 pts | D+0.2 | 100% |
| Strategic Research Associates | 10 | 3.4 pts | D+1.8 | 70% |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 10 | 2.9 pts | R+1.8 | 100% |
| Alaska Survey Research partisan·D | 9 | 7.1 pts | R+1.7 | 89% |
| Cygnal partisan·R | 9 | 2.5 pts | D+1.9 | 89% |
| Siena College | 9 | 6.9 pts | R+6.9 | 67% |
| SoonerPoll.com | 9 | 10.7 pts | D+3.8 | 78% |
| McLaughlin & Associates partisan·R | 8 | 11.0 pts | R+11.0 | 63% |
| Remington Research partisan·R | 8 | 4.4 pts | D+0.2 | 86% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 8 | 6.9 pts | R+6.9 | 75% |
| TargetPoint | 8 | 5.6 pts | R+2.5 | 71% |
| Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | 8 | 14.8 pts | R+14.8 | 100% |
| UNH | 8 | 3.4 pts | D+2.1 | 100% |
| Dixie Strategies | 7 | 8.1 pts | R+6.3 | 86% |
| GQR partisan·D | 7 | 3.9 pts | D+1.6 | 100% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 7 | 5.5 pts | R+3.9 | 57% |
| Public Opinion Strategies partisan·R | 7 | 5.0 pts | R+4.6 | 71% |
| Tulchin Research partisan·D | 7 | 4.8 pts | D+0.1 | 100% |
| American Viewpoint | 6 | 4.7 pts | R+2.8 | 100% |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 6 | 6.4 pts | D+6.0 | 100% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 6 | 7.1 pts | D+5.0 | 50% |
| Marquette | 6 | 1.4 pts | Even | 80% |
| SurveyMonkey | 6 | 6.8 pts | D+2.3 | 100% |
| Susquehanna | 6 | 8.6 pts | D+8.0 | 83% |
| Target Insyght | 6 | 5.3 pts | R+1.3 | 80% |
| Targoz Market Research | 6 | 7.2 pts | D+5.7 | 100% |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 6 | 5.1 pts | D+4.8 | 100% |
| WPA Intelligence partisan·R | 6 | 9.4 pts | R+9.4 | 83% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 5 | 5.4 pts | D+0.8 | 80% |
| Carroll Strategies | 5 | 9.9 pts | R+9.9 | 80% |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 5 | 7.0 pts | D+7.0 | 60% |
| JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | 5 | 6.7 pts | R+5.5 | 80% |
| KFF | 5 | 6.2 pts | R+0.2 | 20% |
| Lake Research Partners partisan·D | 5 | 5.6 pts | D+5.6 | 75% |
| Muhlenberg College | 5 | 2.9 pts | D+1.7 | 100% |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 5 | 7.5 pts | D+2.7 | 80% |
| Tarrance Group | 5 | 6.9 pts | R+6.4 | 80% |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 5 | 2.8 pts | R+0.7 | 60% |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 5 | 4.2 pts | R+2.8 | 80% |
| Univ. of North Florida | 5 | 2.4 pts | D+2.4 | 25% |
| University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics | 5 | 5.8 pts | R+3.9 | 100% |
| EPIC-MRA | 4 | 5.8 pts | D+2.7 | 100% |
| Fleming & Associates | 4 | 5.3 pts | R+5.3 | 100% |
| Florida Atlantic University | 4 | 2.5 pts | D+1.3 | 50% |
| Franklin & Marshall | 4 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 100% |
| Glengariff Group | 4 | 6.7 pts | D+6.7 | 100% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 4 | 1.3 pts | R+1.0 | 100% |
| MassINC Polling Group | 4 | 6.0 pts | R+5.1 | 100% |
| National Research | 4 | 8.8 pts | R+8.8 | 75% |
| OnMessage Inc. partisan·R | 4 | 4.8 pts | R+4.8 | 75% |
| Pan Atlantic | 4 | 2.1 pts | Even | 75% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 4 | 8.8 pts | R+12.4 | 100% |
| American Research Group | 3 | 9.7 pts | D+9.7 | 100% |
| Braun Research | 3 | 2.8 pts | R+2.7 | 100% |
| Cherry Communications partisan·R | 3 | 4.3 pts | D+4.3 | 0% |
| Christopher Newport Univ. | 3 | 3.6 pts | R+2.9 | 67% |
| DFM Research | 3 | 4.1 pts | R+1.4 | 67% |
| GreatBlue Research | 3 | 3.0 pts | R+1.3 | 67% |
| Magellan Strategies | 3 | 4.8 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
| St. Anselm | 3 | 5.7 pts | D+3.7 | 100% |
| St. Cloud State University | 3 | 3.6 pts | D+3.6 | 100% |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 3 | 0.8 pts | R+0.4 | 100% |
Scored-poll data for 2018 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); scoring computed by PollingSource.