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Pollster Track Records — 2018

Overall 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014

Every firm's 2018 general-election polls scored against the certified results: average margin error, directional lean (positive = ran more Democratic than the result), and how often the poll's leader won. Firms with fewer than 3 scored polls aren't listed. Method details on the methodology page.

Pollster Polls Avg. Error Lean Winner Called
The New York Times/Siena College 94 4.6 pts R+2.2 68%
Emerson College 88 5.1 pts R+0.2 85%
Change Research partisan·D 60 5.6 pts D+1.7 84%
Ipsos 44 4.4 pts D+0.6 77%
Harris Insights & Analytics 41 3.4 pts R+0.4 78%
SurveyUSA 30 5.2 pts R+1.9 75%
Gravis Marketing 29 5.3 pts R+0.2 64%
Marist College 29 4.2 pts D+1.9 71%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research 26 4.5 pts D+3.4 87%
YouGov 26 2.7 pts R+1.2 96%
SSRS 25 5.9 pts D+4.7 72%
Public Policy Polling partisan·D 24 3.8 pts D+0.4 86%
Quinnipiac University 23 4.6 pts D+0.4 74%
Research Co. 21 4.1 pts R+1.1 90%
Vox Populi Polling 21 5.0 pts D+2.9 79%
Monmouth University Polling Institute 20 5.3 pts R+3.4 79%
Trafalgar Group 19 5.0 pts R+2.7 68%
Rasmussen Reports 15 4.4 pts R+2.9 77%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 14 3.2 pts R+1.3 69%
Morning Consult 14 3.1 pts R+0.7 100%
St. Pete Polls 14 2.6 pts D+2.1 43%
Suffolk University 13 4.1 pts D+1.7 77%
GBAO partisan·D 12 3.5 pts R+1.7 82%
Impact Research partisan·D 12 3.2 pts D+2.1 92%
Global Strategy Group partisan·D 10 4.0 pts D+2.5 90%
Mitchell Research & Communications 10 2.7 pts D+0.2 100%
Strategic Research Associates 10 3.4 pts D+1.8 70%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies 10 2.9 pts R+1.8 100%
Alaska Survey Research 9 7.1 pts R+1.7 89%
Cygnal 9 2.5 pts D+1.9 89%
Siena College 9 6.9 pts R+6.9 67%
SoonerPoll.com 9 10.7 pts D+3.8 78%
McLaughlin & Associates partisan·R 8 11.0 pts R+11.0 63%
Remington Research Group 8 4.4 pts D+0.2 86%
Research & Polling Inc. 8 6.9 pts R+6.9 75%
TargetPoint 8 5.6 pts R+2.5 71%
Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus 8 14.8 pts R+14.8 100%
University of New Hampshire Survey Center 8 3.4 pts D+2.1 100%
Dixie Strategies 7 8.1 pts R+6.3 86%
GQR partisan·D 7 3.9 pts D+1.6 100%
Noble Predictive Insights 7 5.5 pts R+3.9 57%
Public Opinion Strategies partisan·R 7 5.0 pts R+4.6 71%
Tulchin Research partisan·D 7 4.8 pts D+0.1 100%
American Viewpoint 6 4.7 pts R+2.8 100%
Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute 6 6.4 pts D+6.0 100%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 6 7.1 pts D+5.0 50%
Marquette University Law School 6 1.4 pts Even 80%
SurveyMonkey 6 6.8 pts D+2.3 100%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 6 8.6 pts D+8.0 83%
Target Insyght 6 5.3 pts R+1.3 80%
Targoz Market Research 6 7.2 pts D+5.7 100%
University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research 6 5.1 pts D+4.8 100%
WPA Intelligence partisan·R 6 9.4 pts R+9.4 83%
American Pulse Research & Polling 5 5.4 pts D+0.8 80%
Carroll Strategies 5 9.9 pts R+9.9 80%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department 5 7.0 pts D+7.0 60%
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns 5 6.7 pts R+5.5 80%
KFF 5 6.2 pts R+0.2 20%
Lake Research Partners partisan·D 5 5.6 pts D+5.6 75%
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion 5 2.9 pts D+1.7 100%
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy 5 7.5 pts D+2.7 80%
Tarrance Group 5 6.9 pts R+6.4 80%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group 5 2.8 pts R+0.7 60%
The Polling Company Inc. 5 4.2 pts R+2.8 80%
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab 5 2.4 pts D+2.4 25%
University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics 5 5.8 pts R+3.9 100%
EPIC-MRA 4 5.8 pts D+2.7 100%
Fleming & Associates 4 5.3 pts R+5.3 100%
Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative 4 2.5 pts D+1.3 50%
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research 4 4.9 pts D+4.9 100%
Glengariff Group 4 6.7 pts D+6.7 100%
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies 4 1.3 pts R+1.0 100%
MassINC Polling Group 4 6.0 pts R+5.1 100%
National Research 4 8.8 pts R+8.8 75%
OnMessage Inc. partisan·R 4 4.8 pts R+4.8 75%
Pan Atlantic Research partisan·D 4 2.1 pts Even 75%
Public Policy Institute of California 4 8.8 pts R+12.4 100%
American Research Group 3 9.7 pts D+9.7 100%
Braun Research 3 2.8 pts R+2.7 100%
Cherry Communications partisan·R 3 4.3 pts D+4.3 0%
Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership 3 3.6 pts R+2.9 67%
DFM Research 3 4.1 pts R+1.4 67%
GreatBlue Research 3 3.0 pts R+1.3 67%
Magellan Strategies 3 4.8 pts R+1.4 100%
Saint Anselm College Survey Center 3 5.7 pts D+3.7 100%
St. Cloud State University 3 3.6 pts D+3.6 100%
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government 3 0.8 pts R+0.4 100%

Scored-poll data for 2018 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); scoring computed by PollingSource.

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