JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns
5 scored general-election polls (2018) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 6.7 pts | R+5.5 | 80% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-21 | MS Senate | R+10.0 | R+7.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | WI-6 House | R+28.0 | R+11.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | CO-3 House | R+5.0 | R+8.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-15 | GA-7 House | R+6.0 | R+0.2 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-15 | GA-6 House | R+4.0 | D+1.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.