St. Cloud State University
7 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 13.3 pts | D+13.3 | 100% |
| 2020 | 2 | 9.8 pts | D+9.8 | 100% |
| 2018 | 3 | 3.6 pts | D+3.6 | 100% |
| 2016 | 1 | 9.5 pts | D+9.5 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-20 | MN Governor | D+21.0 | D+7.7 | 13.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-20 | MN Senate | D+17.0 | D+5.2 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-20 | MN President | D+15.0 | D+7.1 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-23 | MN Governor | D+16.0 | D+11.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-23 | MN Senate | D+15.0 | D+10.6 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-23 | MN Senate | D+26.0 | D+24.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-25 | MN President | D+11.0 | D+1.5 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.