Pollster Track Records — 2020
Overall 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014
Every firm's 2020 general-election polls scored against the certified results: average margin error, directional lean (positive = ran more Democratic than the result), and how often the poll's leader won. Firms with fewer than 3 scored polls aren't listed. Method details on the methodology page.
| Pollster | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 123 | 5.4 pts | D+4.6 | 98% |
| Morning Consult | 97 | 4.5 pts | D+4.3 | 87% |
| YouGov | 92 | 4.9 pts | D+4.7 | 88% |
| Data for Progress partisan·D | 81 | 5.8 pts | D+5.7 | 71% |
| Change Research partisan·D | 79 | 5.7 pts | D+5.4 | 73% |
| Ipsos | 72 | 4.7 pts | D+4.7 | 80% |
| New York Times/Siena University | 69 | 5.8 pts | D+5.6 | 77% |
| Swayable | 68 | 5.8 pts | D+5.2 | 93% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 56 | 6.2 pts | D+6.2 | 73% |
| Emerson College | 50 | 4.3 pts | D+3.4 | 65% |
| Public Policy Polling partisan·D | 50 | 6.3 pts | D+6.3 | 63% |
| Trafalgar Group partisan·R | 49 | 2.4 pts | R+1.3 | 59% |
| RMG Research partisan·R | 46 | 4.7 pts | D+4.4 | 80% |
| SurveyUSA | 43 | 4.5 pts | D+3.0 | 85% |
| Civiqs | 39 | 5.3 pts | D+5.1 | 76% |
| Quinnipiac | 35 | 8.3 pts | D+8.3 | 59% |
| Rasmussen Reports | 29 | 3.0 pts | D+1.0 | 75% |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 28 | 6.3 pts | D+5.3 | 56% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 24 | 7.5 pts | D+7.4 | 83% |
| Gravis Marketing | 23 | 4.6 pts | D+4.6 | 91% |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 21 | 2.7 pts | D+2.6 | 90% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 20 | 3.0 pts | D+0.2 | 47% |
| GBAO partisan·D | 19 | 7.6 pts | D+7.6 | 63% |
| Suffolk University | 18 | 5.1 pts | D+4.8 | 76% |
| SSRS | 17 | 7.0 pts | D+7.0 | 71% |
| UMass Lowell | 17 | 4.4 pts | D+4.3 | 87% |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 15 | 4.9 pts | D+4.4 | 80% |
| Research Co. | 15 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 100% |
| UNH | 15 | 5.3 pts | D+1.8 | 93% |
| Atlas Intel | 14 | 2.2 pts | D+1.0 | 71% |
| Marist | 14 | 6.1 pts | D+6.0 | 77% |
| Susquehanna | 13 | 2.5 pts | D+1.0 | 50% |
| Citizen Data | 12 | 7.6 pts | D+7.6 | 50% |
| Cygnal partisan·R | 12 | 5.0 pts | D+3.6 | 100% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 11 | 6.0 pts | D+6.0 | 91% |
| Colby College | 11 | 8.8 pts | D+7.7 | 64% |
| East Carolina U. | 11 | 5.2 pts | D+5.2 | 55% |
| Impact Research partisan·D | 11 | 7.9 pts | D+7.9 | 50% |
| Remington Research partisan·R | 11 | 9.5 pts | D+3.8 | 82% |
| Targoz Market Research | 11 | 5.4 pts | D+4.4 | 80% |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 10 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 90% |
| Global Strategy Group partisan·D | 10 | 6.3 pts | D+6.2 | 75% |
| St. Anselm | 10 | 3.5 pts | D+3.0 | 100% |
| Strategies 360 | 10 | 6.5 pts | D+6.5 | 88% |
| Brandwatch Qriously | 9 | 5.5 pts | D+5.4 | 100% |
| Landmark Communications | 9 | 2.2 pts | R+1.4 | 44% |
| Leger | 9 | 3.5 pts | D+3.5 | 100% |
| National Research | 9 | 4.0 pts | D+3.5 | 88% |
| St. Pete Polls | 9 | 6.1 pts | D+6.1 | 44% |
| EPIC-MRA | 8 | 4.5 pts | D+4.5 | 100% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 8 | 5.4 pts | D+5.4 | 100% |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 8 | 5.5 pts | D+5.5 | 88% |
| TIPP Insights partisan·R | 8 | 1.7 pts | D+1.2 | 100% |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 8 | 5.4 pts | D+5.4 | 100% |
| Wick | 8 | 3.1 pts | R+1.7 | 50% |
| American Research Group | 7 | 12.5 pts | D+10.9 | 100% |
| Data Orbital | 7 | 2.9 pts | D+2.5 | 100% |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 7 | 10.3 pts | D+10.3 | 29% |
| Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | 7 | 5.5 pts | D+5.5 | 100% |
| KFF | 7 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 57% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 7 | 4.3 pts | D+4.3 | 100% |
| SoonerPoll.com | 7 | 6.8 pts | D+6.8 | 86% |
| VCreek/AMG | 7 | 9.6 pts | D+7.9 | 71% |
| Beacon Research partisan·D | 6 | 9.8 pts | — | 100% |
| co/efficient partisan·R | 6 | 3.3 pts | D+0.5 | 100% |
| Digital Research | 6 | 7.1 pts | D+6.9 | 83% |
| Harper Polling partisan·R | 6 | 3.9 pts | D+3.9 | 50% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 6 | 7.5 pts | D+7.1 | 83% |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 6 | 6.1 pts | D+6.1 | 33% |
| Mitchell Research | 6 | 5.9 pts | D+5.9 | 100% |
| OnMessage Inc. partisan·R | 6 | 7.0 pts | R+1.9 | 83% |
| Opinium | 6 | 7.4 pts | D+7.4 | 100% |
| Pan Atlantic | 6 | 10.0 pts | D+6.6 | 67% |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 6 | 1.9 pts | R+0.9 | 50% |
| University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | 6 | 3.1 pts | D+1.1 | 67% |
| Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | 6 | 5.3 pts | D+5.3 | 83% |
| Victory Research | 6 | 6.3 pts | D+4.6 | 100% |
| Y2 Analytics | 6 | 6.8 pts | D+6.8 | 100% |
| Christopher Newport Univ. | 5 | 3.4 pts | D+1.4 | 100% |
| Frederick Polls | 5 | 4.0 pts | D+4.0 | 40% |
| GQR partisan·D | 5 | 8.7 pts | D+8.7 | 60% |
| Lighthouse Research | 5 | 8.4 pts | D+7.3 | 80% |
| Public Opinion Strategies partisan·R | 5 | 4.5 pts | D+2.2 | 80% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 5 | 3.8 pts | D+3.8 | 100% |
| Tarrance Group | 5 | 2.1 pts | D+2.0 | 100% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 4 | 19.6 pts | D+19.6 | 100% |
| Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration | 4 | 7.5 pts | D+7.5 | 100% |
| AYTM | 4 | 3.6 pts | D+3.6 | 75% |
| brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 4 | 10.5 pts | D+10.5 | 25% |
| David Binder Research partisan·D | 4 | 4.3 pts | D+4.3 | 100% |
| Echelon Insights partisan·R | 4 | 2.3 pts | D+2.3 | 100% |
| El Nuevo Día/The Research Office | 4 | 1.2 pts | — | 100% |
| EMC Research partisan·D | 4 | 12.2 pts | D+12.2 | 33% |
| Glengariff Group | 4 | 5.6 pts | D+5.6 | 100% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 4 | 11.8 pts | D+11.8 | 67% |
| Hendrix College | 4 | 6.1 pts | D+7.5 | 100% |
| John Zogby Strategies | 4 | 1.0 pts | R+0.5 | 100% |
| Jorge Benítez | 4 | 5.1 pts | — | 50% |
| Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson | 4 | 1.3 pts | D+0.6 | 100% |
| Montana State University Billings | 4 | 11.3 pts | D+11.3 | 67% |
| Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | 4 | 10.0 pts | D+10.0 | 75% |
| RABA Research | 4 | 13.4 pts | D+13.4 | 0% |
| Selzer & Co. | 4 | 5.4 pts | D+5.4 | 67% |
| Siena College | 4 | 6.8 pts | D+6.8 | 33% |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 4 | 3.8 pts | R+1.8 | 75% |
| The Winston Group | 4 | 0.8 pts | D+0.6 | 100% |
| University of Delaware | 4 | 5.8 pts | D+5.8 | 100% |
| Alaska Survey Research partisan·D | 3 | 8.6 pts | D+8.6 | 67% |
| Amber Integrated | 3 | 8.5 pts | D+8.3 | 100% |
| American Viewpoint | 3 | 4.7 pts | R+3.9 | 100% |
| Basswood Research | 3 | 2.2 pts | R+0.4 | 0% |
| Braun Research | 3 | 7.7 pts | R+1.2 | 100% |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | 3 | 2.5 pts | R+2.5 | 100% |
| Climate Nexus | 3 | 5.8 pts | D+5.8 | 100% |
| Data Targeting partisan·R | 3 | 4.3 pts | R+4.3 | 100% |
| DFM Research | 3 | 14.1 pts | D+14.1 | 100% |
| Florida Atlantic University | 3 | 5.4 pts | D+5.4 | 33% |
| FM3 Research partisan·D | 3 | 10.8 pts | D+10.8 | 33% |
| Franklin & Marshall | 3 | 4.4 pts | D+4.4 | 100% |
| J.L. Partners partisan·R | 3 | 6.9 pts | D+6.9 | 100% |
| Lake Research Partners partisan·D | 3 | 6.4 pts | D+5.5 | 100% |
| Latino Decisions | 3 | 3.2 pts | D+3.2 | 100% |
| Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | 3 | 10.9 pts | D+10.9 | 100% |
| Marquette | 3 | 4.8 pts | D+4.8 | 100% |
| Meeting Street Insights | 3 | 4.5 pts | D+4.5 | 33% |
| Moore Information Group | 3 | 7.5 pts | D+7.5 | 100% |
| Muhlenberg College | 3 | 6.3 pts | D+6.3 | 100% |
| Normington, Petts & Associates partisan·D | 3 | 9.4 pts | D+9.4 | 50% |
| Øptimus Analytics | 3 | 3.2 pts | D+2.7 | 100% |
| Repass | 3 | 21.1 pts | D+21.1 | 100% |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 3 | 6.7 pts | D+6.7 | 67% |
| Univ. of North Florida | 3 | 5.6 pts | D+5.6 | 33% |
| University of Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center | 3 | 15.2 pts | D+15.2 | 100% |
Scored-poll data for 2020 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); scoring computed by PollingSource.