Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies
33 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | 2.1 pts | D+2.1 | 67% |
| 2020 | 8 | 5.4 pts | D+5.4 | 100% |
| 2018 | 4 | 1.3 pts | R+1.0 | 100% |
| 2016 | 9 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 56% |
| 2014 | 8 | 7.0 pts | D+5.6 | 43% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-04 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+2.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-16 | National Generic Ballot | R+1.0 | R+2.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-15 | National Generic Ballot | R+2.0 | R+2.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-11 | National Generic Ballot | Even | R+2.6 | 2.6 | — |
| 2020-10-30 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | National President | D+11.0 | D+4.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+3.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | National President | D+11.0 | D+4.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | National President | D+14.0 | D+4.4 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | D+3.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-02 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | National Generic Ballot | D+9.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-06 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+8.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-18 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-04 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-04 | National President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-23 | National President | D+9.0 | D+2.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | R+1.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-12 | National President | D+11.0 | D+2.2 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-09 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | R+1.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-09 | National President | D+9.0 | D+2.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-18 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-18 | National President | D+6.0 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | National Generic Ballot | Even | R+5.6 | 5.6 | — |
| 2014-10-20 | National Generic Ballot | R+11.0 | R+5.6 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-13 | National Generic Ballot | R+5.0 | R+5.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-10 | National Generic Ballot | R+1.0 | R+5.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+5.6 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-29 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+5.6 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-22 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+5.6 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-16 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | R+5.6 | 9.6 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.