Pollster Track Records — 2014
Overall 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014
Every firm's 2014 general-election polls scored against the certified results: average margin error, directional lean (positive = ran more Democratic than the result), and how often the poll's leader won. Firms with fewer than 3 scored polls aren't listed. Method details on the methodology page.
| Pollster | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 161 | 6.0 pts | D+3.8 | 85% |
| Rasmussen Reports | 86 | 5.9 pts | D+3.3 | 78% |
| Public Policy Polling partisan·D | 83 | 5.3 pts | D+3.7 | 77% |
| SurveyUSA | 73 | 6.8 pts | D+5.1 | 69% |
| Quinnipiac | 35 | 5.1 pts | D+0.8 | 77% |
| Gravis Marketing | 32 | 6.8 pts | D+3.8 | 69% |
| New England College Polling Center | 32 | 3.8 pts | D+0.5 | 80% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 24 | 6.4 pts | D+4.6 | 68% |
| Marist | 23 | 6.6 pts | D+5.5 | 73% |
| Suffolk University | 20 | 5.7 pts | D+2.2 | 65% |
| UNH | 20 | 6.7 pts | D+3.7 | 80% |
| Big Village | 19 | 4.9 pts | D+3.1 | 56% |
| Øptimus Analytics | 19 | 5.8 pts | D+1.0 | 63% |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 18 | 3.9 pts | D+3.4 | 88% |
| We Ask America | 17 | 4.8 pts | D+2.9 | 75% |
| Siena College | 16 | 5.9 pts | D+2.9 | 88% |
| Landmark Communications | 15 | 6.3 pts | D+6.1 | 79% |
| Mitchell Research | 15 | 2.7 pts | R+0.7 | 100% |
| Public Opinion Strategies partisan·R | 15 | 4.9 pts | D+1.0 | 73% |
| GQR partisan·D | 13 | 7.9 pts | D+7.9 | 27% |
| Vox Populi Polling | 13 | 3.9 pts | R+1.2 | 77% |
| Global Strategy Group partisan·D | 11 | 6.8 pts | D+6.8 | 64% |
| MassINC Polling Group | 11 | 4.7 pts | D+3.6 | 55% |
| Ipsos | 10 | 6.4 pts | D+5.4 | 71% |
| Magellan Strategies | 10 | 4.3 pts | R+0.7 | 89% |
| Tarrance Group | 10 | 7.7 pts | R+1.8 | 80% |
| American Research Group | 8 | 4.9 pts | D+2.8 | 100% |
| Emerson College | 8 | 10.3 pts | R+10.3 | 50% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 8 | 7.0 pts | D+5.6 | 43% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 8 | 5.6 pts | D+4.9 | 75% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 8 | 6.4 pts | D+5.9 | 100% |
| MRG Research | 8 | 8.1 pts | R+8.1 | 86% |
| Pan Atlantic | 8 | 6.8 pts | D+4.5 | 75% |
| SocialSphere | 8 | 3.7 pts | D+0.3 | 71% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 7 | 5.6 pts | D+3.7 | 83% |
| Harper Polling partisan·R | 7 | 4.9 pts | D+4.8 | 100% |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 7 | 6.7 pts | D+6.7 | 86% |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 7 | 7.9 pts | D+6.5 | 100% |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 7 | 4.8 pts | D+1.4 | 86% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 6 | 4.7 pts | D+4.6 | 80% |
| EPIC-MRA | 6 | 2.7 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
| Hendrix College | 6 | 9.9 pts | D+9.1 | 83% |
| Opinion Research Associates | 6 | 18.2 pts | D+18.2 | 0% |
| Remington Research partisan·R | 6 | 7.5 pts | D+2.0 | 67% |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 5 | 2.8 pts | R+0.8 | 100% |
| Hickman Analytics | 5 | 7.8 pts | D+5.7 | 60% |
| Moore Information Group | 5 | 9.9 pts | R+3.7 | 60% |
| National Research | 5 | 3.7 pts | D+0.8 | 50% |
| Normington, Petts & Associates partisan·D | 5 | 6.3 pts | D+4.0 | 40% |
| Selzer & Co. | 5 | 4.2 pts | D+3.3 | 100% |
| Abt Associates | 4 | 4.8 pts | D+4.8 | 100% |
| APC Research | 4 | 8.0 pts | D+8.0 | 75% |
| Brigham Young University Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy | 4 | 16.4 pts | D+16.4 | 75% |
| ccAdvertising | 4 | 6.5 pts | R+3.3 | 75% |
| Glengariff Group | 4 | 2.7 pts | R+1.8 | 100% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 4 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 0% |
| Hellenthal & Associates | 4 | 6.0 pts | D+0.7 | 50% |
| Lake Research Partners partisan·D | 4 | 7.5 pts | D+3.3 | 100% |
| Maine People's Resource Center partisan·D | 4 | 7.7 pts | D+5.5 | 75% |
| Marquette | 4 | 2.6 pts | D+1.9 | 100% |
| Mellman Group | 4 | 14.2 pts | D+14.2 | 0% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 4 | 2.5 pts | R+1.6 | 100% |
| SoonerPoll.com | 4 | 4.8 pts | D+4.8 | 100% |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 4 | 2.4 pts | R+2.0 | 100% |
| WPA Intelligence partisan·R | 4 | 6.3 pts | R+0.4 | 75% |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 3 | 1.5 pts | D+0.3 | 100% |
| Christopher Newport Univ. | 3 | 12.9 pts | D+12.9 | 100% |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 3 | 8.1 pts | D+4.3 | 33% |
| DFM Research | 3 | 10.7 pts | D+10.7 | 100% |
| Digital Research | 3 | 2.1 pts | D+2.1 | 100% |
| GBAO partisan·D | 3 | 5.7 pts | D+5.7 | 100% |
| Impact Research partisan·D | 3 | 7.9 pts | D+7.9 | 100% |
| JMC Analytics | 3 | 10.0 pts | D+7.2 | 100% |
| Keating Research partisan·D | 3 | 6.9 pts | D+6.9 | 67% |
| Kiley & Company | 3 | 2.6 pts | D+2.5 | 100% |
| McLaughlin & Associates partisan·R | 3 | 4.7 pts | D+4.0 | 67% |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 3 | 14.1 pts | D+14.1 | 100% |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 3 | 10.1 pts | D+10.1 | 33% |
| St. Pete Polls | 3 | 1.5 pts | D+1.5 | 50% |
| Susquehanna | 3 | 4.3 pts | R+4.3 | 100% |
| UMass Lowell | 3 | 1.1 pts | R+1.1 | 100% |
| Ward Research | 3 | 4.4 pts | D+1.6 | 100% |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 3 | 2.3 pts | D+1.7 | 100% |
| Zogby Analytics | 3 | 5.4 pts | D+4.2 | 67% |
Scored-poll data for 2014 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); scoring computed by PollingSource.