Glengariff Group
18 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | 4.1 pts | R+0.6 | 100% |
| 2020 | 4 | 5.6 pts | D+5.6 | 100% |
| 2018 | 4 | 6.7 pts | D+6.7 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 9.5 pts | D+9.5 | 0% |
| 2014 | 4 | 2.7 pts | R+1.8 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-27 | MI Governor | D+8.6 | D+10.5 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-19 | MI-7 House | D+5.7 | D+5.4 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-05 | MI-10 House | R+7.9 | R+0.5 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-28 | MI Governor | D+17.3 | D+10.5 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | MI Senate | D+9.6 | D+1.7 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | MI President | D+7.7 | D+2.8 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | MI Senate | D+5.4 | D+1.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | MI President | D+8.8 | D+2.8 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | MI Governor | D+12.5 | D+9.6 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | MI Senate | D+16.7 | D+6.5 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | MI Governor | D+11.6 | D+9.6 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | MI Senate | D+18.0 | D+6.5 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | MI President | D+11.6 | R+0.2 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-27 | MI President | D+7.0 | R+0.2 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-23 | MI Governor | R+5.0 | R+4.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | MI Senate | D+15.1 | D+13.3 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-03 | MI Governor | R+8.0 | R+4.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-03 | MI Senate | D+9.0 | D+13.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.