Hendrix College
20 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | 17.7 pts | D+17.7 | 100% |
| 2020 | 4 | 6.1 pts | D+7.5 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 4.1 pts | R+4.1 | 100% |
| 2016 | 4 | 4.3 pts | D+3.1 | 100% |
| 2014 | 6 | 9.9 pts | D+9.1 | 83% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-17 | AR Governor | R+10.0 | R+27.8 | 17.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-17 | AR Senate | R+20.0 | R+34.6 | 14.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-12 | AR Governor | R+11.0 | R+27.8 | 16.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-12 | AR Senate | R+13.0 | R+34.6 | 21.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | AR-2 House | R+0.5 | R+10.7 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | AR Senate | D+35.0 | D+33.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | AR President | R+24.5 | R+27.6 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | AR-2 House | R+1.5 | R+10.7 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-18 | AR Governor | R+36.0 | R+33.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-17 | AR-2 House | R+12.0 | R+6.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-21 | AR President | R+23.5 | R+26.9 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-21 | AR Senate | R+18.0 | R+23.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-16 | AR President | R+21.0 | R+26.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-16 | AR Senate | R+26.0 | R+23.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | AR-4 House | R+2.0 | R+11.2 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | AR-3 House | D+45.0 | D+58.8 | 13.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | AR-2 House | D+4.5 | R+8.3 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-15 | AR-1 House | R+22.0 | R+30.9 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | AR Governor | R+8.0 | R+13.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | AR Senate | R+8.5 | R+17.1 | 8.6 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.