GQR partisan·D
45 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 60% |
| 2020 | 5 | 8.7 pts | D+8.7 | 60% |
| 2018 | 7 | 3.9 pts | D+1.6 | 100% |
| 2016 | 13 | 6.0 pts | D+2.7 | 73% |
| 2014 | 13 | 7.9 pts | D+7.9 | 27% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | FL-13 House | 500 LV | Leela Gray 44.00% – Anna 47.00% | R+3.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | MT Senate | 500 LV | Alani Bankhead 22.00% – Kurt Alme 41.00% | R+19.0 |
| 2026-07-22 | SC-1 House | 400 LV | Nancy Lacore 48.00% – Honeycutt 50.00% | R+2.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-07 | National Generic Ballot | R+2.0 | R+2.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-21 | National Generic Ballot | Even | R+2.6 | 2.6 | — |
| 2022-10-12 | NC-1 House | D+15.0 | D+4.7 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-27 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | R+2.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-23 | NJ-7 House | Even | R+2.8 | 2.8 | — |
| 2022-09-14 | PA-8 House | D+8.0 | D+2.5 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-12 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-07 | NY-1 House | R+1.0 | R+7.3 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-06 | SC-1 House | D+13.0 | R+1.3 | 14.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-25 | WA-3 House | R+2.0 | R+13.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | AZ-6 House | D+4.0 | R+4.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-05 | FL-15 House | R+7.0 | R+10.8 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-24 | NM Governor | D+9.0 | D+14.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-17 | FL-15 House | Even | R+6.0 | 6.0 | — |
| 2018-10-03 | FL-6 House | Even | R+12.6 | 12.6 | — |
| 2018-09-29 | NE-2 House | R+4.0 | R+2.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-25 | FL-26 House | D+1.0 | D+1.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-19 | MI-8 House | D+4.0 | D+3.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-16 | National Generic Ballot | D+9.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-23 | National Generic Ballot | R+1.0 | R+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-23 | National President | D+12.0 | D+2.2 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | IA-3 House | R+3.0 | R+13.7 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | NH President | D+8.0 | D+0.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | NH Governor | Even | R+2.3 | 2.3 | — |
| 2016-09-14 | PA President | D+8.0 | R+0.7 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-14 | OH President | R+2.0 | R+8.1 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-14 | NV President | Even | D+2.4 | 2.4 | — |
| 2016-09-14 | NC President | D+4.0 | R+3.7 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-14 | PA Senate | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-14 | OH Senate | R+17.0 | R+20.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-14 | NV Senate | R+6.0 | D+2.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-14 | NC Senate | R+16.0 | R+5.7 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | MA Governor | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-18 | National Generic Ballot | Even | R+5.6 | 5.6 | — |
| 2014-10-06 | ME Governor | D+4.0 | R+4.8 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-01 | IA-3 House | D+7.0 | R+10.5 | 17.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-27 | MN-8 House | D+11.0 | D+1.4 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-27 | IA Senate | D+1.0 | R+8.3 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-26 | IA Senate | R+1.0 | R+8.3 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-26 | CO Senate | Even | R+1.9 | 1.9 | — |
| 2014-09-26 | GA Senate | R+5.0 | R+7.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-26 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-22 | ME Governor | D+6.0 | R+4.8 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-16 | IA-3 House | D+3.0 | R+10.5 | 13.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-09 | ME Governor | D+2.0 | R+4.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.