Primary
Democratic Primary
Held May 19, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Dembo ✓ | 26,858 | 39.6% | |
| Cherlynn Stevenson | 21,312 | 31.5% | |
| Erin Petrey | 10,703 | 15.8% | |
| David Kloiber | 3,041 | 4.5% | |
| Corey Edwards | 2,952 | 4.4% | |
| Harvey Carroll Jr. | 1,958 | 2.9% | |
| Jimmy Clifton Ausbrooks | 940 | 1.4% |
Republican Primary
Held May 19, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ralph Alvarado ✓ | 36,217 | 56.5% | |
| Ryan Dotson | 16,897 | 26.4% | |
| Gregory George Plucinski | 5,670 | 8.8% | |
| Steve Shannon | 3,980 | 6.2% | |
| Adam Perez Arquette | 1,332 | 2.1% |
Full calendar and every race: Kentucky primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC (D) partisan·D | 2026-10-05 | 606 LV | ±4.00 | Zach Dembo 46.00% | Ralph Alvarado 40.00% |
| Change Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-10-05 | 524 LV | ±4.40 | Zach Dembo 47.00% | Ralph Alvarado 38.00% |
| GQR (D) partisan·D | 2026-09-30 | 401 LV | ±4.90 | Zach Dembo 42.00% | Ralph Alvarado 37.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 KY-06 House race?
Zach Dembo leads Ralph A Alvarado 45% to 38.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+6.7 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 KY-06 House race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely D, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible. Note: our polling average (Likely D) diverges from the expert consensus (Likely R) — that gap makes this a race to watch.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 KY-06 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from DCCC (D) (completed October 5, 2026), found Zach Dembo (D) at 46% and Ralph Alvarado (R) at 40%.
When is the 2026 KY-06 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 30 min ago
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $2,608,642
- KENTUCKIANS NOT CORRUPTION Dem-aligned $1,705,518
- IN THIS TOGETHER PAC Dem-aligned $500,000
- VOTEVETS Dem-aligned $483,967
- HMP Dem-aligned $361,880
- AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE GOP-aligned $300,000
- PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE GOP-aligned $202,313
- CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. GOP-aligned $163,885
- WOMEN VOTE Dem-aligned $74,159
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $64,693
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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