Public Policy Polling partisan·D
235 scored general-election polls (2014–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10 | 2.0 pts | D+0.3 | 89% |
| 2022 | 12 | 3.6 pts | R+0.2 | 82% |
| 2021 | 1 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 0% |
| 2020 | 50 | 6.3 pts | D+6.3 | 63% |
| 2018 | 24 | 3.8 pts | D+0.4 | 86% |
| 2017 | 1 | 5.9 pts | R+5.9 | 100% |
| 2016 | 53 | 4.5 pts | D+4.5 | 60% |
| 2015 | 1 | 0.2 pts | R+0.2 | 100% |
| 2014 | 83 | 5.3 pts | D+3.7 | 77% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | MD President | D+31.0 | D+28.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-30 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-30 | GA President | D+1.0 | R+2.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-07-30 | AZ President | R+2.0 | R+5.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-20 | NC President | R+4.0 | R+3.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-11 | MI President | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-11 | PA President | R+6.0 | R+1.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-11 | AZ President | R+8.0 | R+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-11 | WI President | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-02-11 | National President | Even | R+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2022-10-19 | WA Senate | D+10.0 | D+14.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-10 | IL Governor | D+15.0 | D+12.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-10 | IL Senate | D+14.0 | D+15.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-07 | NC Senate | R+1.0 | R+3.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-06 | NM Governor | D+8.0 | D+6.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-27 | WA Senate | D+12.0 | D+14.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-26 | WI Governor | D+2.0 | D+3.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-26 | WI Senate | Even | R+1.0 | 1.0 | — |
| 2022-09-21 | IL-17 House | D+9.0 | D+4.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-19 | WA-3 House | R+4.0 | D+0.8 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-08 | NY Governor | D+15.0 | D+7.3 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-06-29 | NY-19 House | R+3.0 | D+5.3 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 2021-09-17 | VA Governor | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-11-01 | IA Senate | D+1.0 | R+6.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-11-01 | IA President | D+1.0 | R+8.2 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-29 | MN Senate | D+9.0 | D+5.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | MI Senate | D+10.0 | D+1.7 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | MN President | D+11.0 | D+7.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | MI President | D+10.0 | D+2.8 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | NC-9 House | R+2.0 | R+11.2 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | TX President | D+2.0 | R+5.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-28 | PA President | D+7.0 | D+1.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | FL President | D+7.0 | R+3.4 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-27 | GA Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.8 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-27 | GA President | D+2.0 | D+0.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | AZ-6 House | D+4.0 | R+4.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-26 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.8 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-26 | MT Senate | D+1.0 | R+10.0 | 11.0 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-26 | NC President | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-26 | MT President | R+2.0 | R+16.4 | 14.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | VA-5 House | D+3.0 | R+5.1 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-21 | MI Senate | D+9.0 | D+1.7 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | PA President | D+5.0 | D+1.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | MI President | D+7.0 | D+2.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | KS Senate | Even | R+11.4 | 11.4 | — |
| 2020-10-19 | AK Senate | R+3.0 | R+12.7 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | KS President | R+12.0 | R+14.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | AK President | R+5.0 | R+10.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | WA Governor | D+16.0 | D+13.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | OH-12 House | R+4.0 | R+13.5 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | TX Senate | R+3.0 | R+9.6 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | WA President | D+23.0 | D+19.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-13 | NY-24 House | D+2.0 | R+2.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-09 | MT Senate | Even | R+10.0 | 10.0 | — |
| 2020-10-09 | MT President | R+6.0 | R+16.4 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-08 | GA Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-08 | GA President | D+1.0 | D+0.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-07 | TX President | D+1.0 | R+5.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-06 | PA-1 House | D+1.0 | R+13.1 | 14.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-04 | NC Governor | D+12.0 | D+4.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | NC Senate | D+6.0 | R+1.8 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-04 | NC President | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-30 | NM Senate | D+10.0 | D+6.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | MI Senate | D+7.0 | D+1.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | NM President | D+14.0 | D+10.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | MI President | D+6.0 | D+2.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-28 | NY-23 House | R+7.0 | R+14.6 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | TX President | Even | R+5.6 | 5.6 | — |
| 2020-09-22 | AZ-6 House | R+2.0 | R+4.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-14 | NJ-2 House | D+5.0 | R+5.8 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-10 | MN-1 House | Even | R+3.1 | 3.1 | — |
| 2020-09-03 | MN Senate | D+8.0 | D+5.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-03 | MN President | D+8.0 | D+7.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-19 | KS Governor | Even | D+5.1 | 5.1 | — |
| 2018-10-15 | GA-3 House | R+30.0 | R+31.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-15 | NV Senate | D+2.0 | D+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-11 | AK-1 House | R+3.0 | R+6.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-11 | AK Governor | R+20.0 | R+7.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | WI Senate | D+10.0 | D+10.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-08 | CT Governor | D+5.0 | D+3.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-05 | GA Governor | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2018-09-29 | FL Governor | D+4.0 | R+0.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-29 | FL Senate | D+4.0 | R+0.1 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-28 | MT Senate | D+4.0 | D+3.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-27 | TX-12 House | R+32.0 | R+30.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-24 | PA-10 House | R+1.0 | R+2.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-19 | TX Senate | R+3.0 | R+2.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-17 | TX-32 House | D+5.0 | D+6.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-17 | TX-7 House | D+2.0 | D+5.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-17 | MN-3 House | D+13.0 | D+11.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-17 | MN-2 House | D+3.0 | D+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-17 | FL-26 House | D+1.0 | D+1.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-17 | FL-25 House | R+5.0 | R+20.9 | 15.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-17 | FL-18 House | R+3.0 | R+8.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | PA-11 House | R+9.0 | R+18.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | KS Governor | R+1.0 | D+5.1 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-07-28 | OH-12 House | R+4.0 | R+0.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2017-09-22 | VA Governor | D+3.0 | D+8.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | VA President | D+5.0 | D+5.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | MI President | D+5.0 | R+0.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-03 | CO President | D+5.0 | D+4.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | CO Senate | D+10.0 | D+5.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | MO President | R+13.0 | R+18.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | MO Governor | D+3.0 | R+5.6 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | WI President | D+7.0 | R+0.8 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | PA President | D+4.0 | R+0.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | NV President | D+3.0 | D+2.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | NH President | D+5.0 | D+0.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | MO President | R+13.0 | R+18.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | PA Senate | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | NH Senate | D+3.0 | D+0.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | WI Senate | D+5.0 | R+3.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | MO Senate | R+2.0 | R+2.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | NV Senate | D+3.0 | D+2.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | NC Senate | R+3.0 | R+5.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | NH Governor | D+3.0 | R+2.3 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-25 | FL President | D+4.0 | R+1.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-25 | FL Senate | Even | R+7.7 | 7.7 | — |
| 2016-10-23 | NY-19 House | D+3.0 | R+3.2 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-21 | NJ-7 House | Even | R+11.0 | 11.0 | — |
| 2016-10-21 | NC President | D+3.0 | R+3.7 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-21 | NC Senate | R+1.0 | R+5.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-21 | NC Governor | D+2.0 | D+0.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-20 | National President | D+6.0 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-18 | WI President | D+12.0 | R+0.8 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-18 | WI Senate | D+6.0 | R+3.4 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-12 | FL President | D+4.0 | R+1.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-12 | FL Senate | R+6.0 | R+7.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | NV President | D+4.0 | D+2.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | NV Senate | D+4.0 | D+2.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-08 | NH President | D+11.0 | D+0.4 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-08 | NH Senate | D+1.0 | D+0.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-05 | OH President | D+1.0 | R+8.1 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-05 | OH Senate | R+15.0 | R+20.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-27 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-27 | VA President | D+6.0 | D+5.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-27 | PA President | D+6.0 | R+0.7 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-27 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-27 | FL President | D+2.0 | R+1.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-27 | CO President | D+6.0 | D+4.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-27 | National President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-27 | FL Senate | R+7.0 | R+7.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-27 | PA Senate | D+5.0 | R+1.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-27 | CO Senate | D+10.0 | D+5.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-27 | NC Senate | R+2.0 | R+5.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-27 | NC Governor | D+3.0 | D+0.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | NC Senate | Even | R+5.7 | 5.7 | — |
| 2016-09-19 | NC Governor | D+5.0 | D+0.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-10 | VA President | D+6.0 | D+5.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2015-09-21 | LA Governor | D+12.0 | D+12.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-02 | GA Governor | R+4.0 | R+7.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-02 | NH Governor | D+5.0 | D+5.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-02 | KS Governor | D+1.0 | R+3.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-11-02 | IA Governor | R+11.0 | R+21.7 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-02 | IA Senate | R+3.0 | R+8.3 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-02 | KS Senate | R+1.0 | D+10.6 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-11-02 | GA Senate | R+1.0 | R+7.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-02 | NC Senate | D+2.0 | R+1.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-11-02 | NH Senate | D+2.0 | D+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-01 | AK-1 House | R+6.0 | R+10.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-01 | FL Governor | Even | R+1.1 | 1.1 | — |
| 2014-11-01 | IL Governor | D+2.0 | R+3.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-11-01 | MI Governor | R+1.0 | R+4.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-01 | CO Governor | Even | D+3.3 | 3.3 | — |
| 2014-11-01 | AK Governor | D+1.0 | D+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-01 | CO Senate | R+3.0 | R+1.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-01 | AK Senate | R+1.0 | R+2.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-01 | IL Senate | D+10.0 | D+10.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-01 | MI Senate | D+13.0 | D+13.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | MA Governor | R+4.0 | R+1.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | AR Governor | R+10.0 | R+13.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | CT Governor | D+3.0 | D+2.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | ID Governor | R+12.0 | R+15.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | AR Senate | R+8.0 | R+17.1 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | MA Senate | D+14.0 | D+23.9 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | IA Senate | R+1.0 | R+8.3 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | GA Senate | Even | R+7.7 | 7.7 | — |
| 2014-10-31 | KY Senate | R+8.0 | R+15.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | NC Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.6 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-30 | KS Governor | D+4.0 | R+3.7 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-30 | KS Senate | D+1.0 | D+10.6 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-30 | NH Senate | D+2.0 | D+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-29 | WI Governor | R+1.0 | R+5.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-29 | VA Senate | D+9.0 | D+0.8 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-28 | CO Governor | Even | D+3.3 | 3.3 | — |
| 2014-10-28 | CO Senate | Even | R+1.9 | 1.9 | — |
| 2014-10-28 | NC Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.6 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-23 | GA Governor | R+3.0 | R+7.9 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | GA Senate | Even | R+7.7 | 7.7 | — |
| 2014-10-22 | ME Governor | Even | R+4.8 | 4.8 | — |
| 2014-10-20 | MI Governor | Even | R+4.1 | 4.1 | — |
| 2014-10-20 | NH Governor | D+10.0 | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-20 | NH Senate | D+4.0 | D+3.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-20 | MI Senate | D+14.0 | D+13.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | CO Governor | D+1.0 | D+3.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | TN Senate | R+13.0 | R+30.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | CO Senate | R+3.0 | R+1.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-17 | WI Governor | R+1.0 | R+5.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-17 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-15 | IA Senate | D+1.0 | R+8.3 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-11 | KS Governor | Even | R+3.7 | 3.7 | — |
| 2014-10-11 | ID Governor | R+4.0 | R+15.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-11 | ID Senate | R+18.0 | R+30.7 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-11 | KS Senate | R+3.0 | D+10.6 | 13.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-04 | GA Governor | R+5.0 | R+7.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-04 | CT Governor | D+8.0 | D+2.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-04 | GA Senate | R+2.0 | R+7.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-03 | FL Governor | D+2.0 | R+1.1 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-02 | MI Governor | R+1.0 | R+4.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-02 | MI Senate | D+7.0 | D+13.3 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-27 | IA Governor | R+14.0 | R+21.7 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-27 | IA Senate | R+2.0 | R+8.3 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-27 | SD Senate | R+7.0 | R+20.9 | 13.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-22 | VA Senate | D+13.0 | D+0.8 | 12.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-20 | AK-1 House | R+15.0 | R+10.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-20 | AR Governor | R+6.0 | R+13.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-20 | AK Governor | D+1.0 | D+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-20 | AR Senate | R+5.0 | R+17.1 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-20 | CO Senate | R+2.0 | R+1.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-20 | AK Senate | R+2.0 | R+2.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-18 | MI Governor | R+2.0 | R+4.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-18 | NH Governor | D+9.0 | D+5.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-18 | NH Senate | D+6.0 | D+3.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-18 | MI Senate | D+7.0 | D+13.3 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-13 | KS Governor | D+4.0 | R+3.7 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-13 | KS Senate | R+7.0 | D+10.6 | 17.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-13 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-08 | ME Governor | D+1.0 | R+4.8 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-06 | FL Governor | D+3.0 | R+1.1 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-06 | MI Governor | R+1.0 | R+4.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-06 | MI Senate | D+7.0 | D+13.3 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-04 | SC Governor | R+5.0 | R+14.5 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-03-08 | FL-13 House | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.