Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Kirschner ✓ | 23,473 | 43.0% | |
| Tamika Lyles | 10,872 | 19.9% | |
| Jan Schneider | 8,411 | 15.4% | |
| Jon Harris | 6,847 | 12.5% | |
| Glenn Pearson | 4,993 | 9.2% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Gruters ✓ | 48,531 | 63.5% | |
| Eddie Speir | 16,263 | 21.3% | |
| Ed Pope | 11,677 | 15.3% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Each point is a poll. The published PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days.
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General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D ±2.0 | 2026-10-02 | 530 RV | ±4.30 | Kelly Kirschner 39.00% | Sydney Gruters 43.00% |
| Sea Polling | 2026-08-29 | 400 LV | ±4.90 | Kelly Kirschner 40.00% | Sydney Gruters 39.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 FL-16 House race?
Sydney Gruters leads Kelly Kirschner 43% to 39% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+4.0 margin based on 1 poll from the most recent week of polls ending in the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 FL-16 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 FL-16 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Public Policy Polling (D) (completed October 2, 2026), found Kelly Kirschner (D) at 39% and Sydney Gruters (R) at 43%.
When is the 2026 FL-16 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of scientific public polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days. One poll in that week is the average. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists the polls from that window. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 55 min ago
Top Spenders
- CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. Mixed $1,490,239
- DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS GOP-aligned $501,743
- WFW ACTION FUND INC GOP-aligned $69,983
- AMERICAN DEMOCRACY PROJECT Dem-aligned $62,531
- STAND FOR FREEDOM PAC GOP-aligned $10,833
- SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Dem-aligned $10
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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