Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Kirschner ✓ | 23,473 | 43.0% | |
| Tamika Lyles | 10,872 | 19.9% | |
| Jan Schneider | 8,411 | 15.4% | |
| Jon Harris | 6,847 | 12.5% | |
| Glenn Pearson | 4,993 | 9.2% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Gruters ✓ | 48,531 | 63.5% | |
| Eddie Speir | 16,263 | 21.3% | |
| Ed Pope | 11,677 | 15.3% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D 2024 err 2.0 | 2026-10-02 | 530 RV | ±4.30 | Kelly Kirschner 39.00% | Sydney Gruters 43.00% |
| Sea Polling | 2026-08-29 | 400 LV | ±4.90 | Kelly Kirschner 40.00% | Sydney Gruters 39.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 FL-16 House race?
Sydney Gruters leads Kelly Kirschner 41% to 39.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+1.5 margin based on 2 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 FL-16 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 FL-16 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Public Policy Polling (D) (completed October 2, 2026), found Kelly Kirschner (D) at 39% and Sydney Gruters (R) at 43%.
When is the 2026 FL-16 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. GOP-aligned $2,085,269
- DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS GOP-aligned $501,743
- AMERICAN DEMOCRACY PROJECT Dem-aligned $102,531
- WFW ACTION FUND INC GOP-aligned $69,983
- STAND FOR FREEDOM PAC GOP-aligned $10,833
- SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Dem-aligned $10
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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