Florida District 16

FL-16 • 2026 Election
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Primary

Democratic Primary

Held August 18, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Kelly Kirschner 23,473 43.0%
Tamika Lyles 10,872 19.9%
Jan Schneider 8,411 15.4%
Jon Harris 6,847 12.5%
Glenn Pearson 4,993 9.2%
91% reporting

Republican Primary

Held August 18, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Sydney Gruters 48,531 63.5%
Eddie Speir 16,263 21.3%
Ed Pope 11,677 15.3%
91% reporting

Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
Vern Buchanan
Party
Republican
Current Rating
Safe R expert avg
Open Seat
No
Cook PVI
R+10

Race Ratings

Expert Consensus Rating

Safe R

Individual forecaster ratings will be updated as they become available.

Candidates

Kelly Kirschner Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $296,507
Cash on Hand: $80,738

Sydney Gruters Nominee

Republican
Total Raised: $1,087,683
Cash on Hand: $622,381

Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →

No polls in the last 90 days.

Questions About This Race

Is the 2026 FL-16 House race competitive?

No — the expert consensus rates it Safe R for Republicans.

When is the 2026 FL-16 House race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race News

No news coverage yet for this race.