Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Forstag ✓ | 26,276 | 37.3% | |
| Ryan Busse | 23,196 | 33.1% | |
| Russell Cleveland | 15,238 | 21.7% | |
| Matt Rains | 5,518 | 7.9% |
Republican Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint ✓ | 41,170 | 50.1% | |
| Christi Jacobsen | 18,877 | 23.0% | |
| Al Olszewski | 16,686 | 20.3% | |
| Ray Curtis | 5,479 | 6.7% |
Libertarian Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sheedy ✓ | 1,202 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Montana primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
Share
Race page
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse | 2026-09-24 | 314 LV | Sam Forstag 45.00% | Aaron Flint 46.00% | |
| Impact Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-09-23 | 500 LV | ±3.40 | Sam Forstag 47.00% | Aaron Flint 44.00% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D 2024 err 2.0 D-sponsored | 2026-09-10 | 536 RV | ±4.20 | Sam Forstag 45.00% | Aaron Flint 43.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 MT-01 House race?
Sam Forstag leads Aaron Flint 45.7% to 44.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+1.4 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 MT-01 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 MT-01 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from American Pulse (completed September 24, 2026), found Sam Forstag (D) at 45% and Aaron Flint (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 MT-01 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 1 hour ago
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $3,483,827
- MONTANA VOTERS PAC Dem-aligned $1,452,625
- THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER PAC GOP-aligned $900,655
- HMP Dem-aligned $650,749
- LCV VICTORY FUND Dem-aligned $645,000
- AMERICAN MISSION GOP-aligned $590,428
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $437,087
- GUARDRAILS ALLIANCE Dem-aligned $412,500
- LEADERSHIP IN ACTION GOP-aligned $407,671
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $354,526
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.
Get the daily email and the spending series
We store the address and the time you agree. No email is sent yet.