Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Forstag ✓ | 26,276 | 37.3% | |
| Ryan Busse | 23,196 | 33.1% | |
| Russell Cleveland | 15,238 | 21.7% | |
| Matt Rains | 5,518 | 7.9% |
Republican Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint ✓ | 41,170 | 50.1% | |
| Christi Jacobsen | 18,877 | 23.0% | |
| Al Olszewski | 16,686 | 20.3% | |
| Ray Curtis | 5,479 | 6.7% |
Libertarian Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sheedy ✓ | 1,202 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Montana primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Each point is a poll. The published PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days.
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General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse | 2026-09-24 | 314 LV | Sam Forstag 45.00% | Aaron Flint 46.00% | |
| Impact Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-09-23 | 500 LV | ±3.40 | Sam Forstag 47.00% | Aaron Flint 44.00% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D ±2.0 D-sponsored | 2026-09-10 | 536 RV | ±4.20 | Sam Forstag 45.00% | Aaron Flint 43.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 MT-01 House race?
Sam Forstag leads Aaron Flint 46% to 45% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+1.0 margin based on 2 polls from the most recent week of polls ending in the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 MT-01 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 MT-01 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from American Pulse (completed September 24, 2026), found Sam Forstag (D) at 45% and Aaron Flint (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 MT-01 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $1,539,367
- MONTANA VOTERS PAC Dem-aligned $875,271
- LCV VICTORY FUND Dem-aligned $688,057
- AMERICAN MISSION GOP-aligned $590,428
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $361,947
- LEADERSHIP IN ACTION GOP-aligned $344,434
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $342,185
- MAKE MONTANA GREAT GOP-aligned $224,395
- SEAL PAC USA GOP-aligned $125,000
- SAVE AMERICA FUND Dem-aligned $70,875
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
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