Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Forstag ✓ | 26,276 | 37.3% | |
| Ryan Busse | 23,196 | 33.1% | |
| Russell Cleveland | 15,238 | 21.7% | |
| Matt Rains | 5,518 | 7.9% |
Republican Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint ✓ | 41,170 | 50.1% | |
| Christi Jacobsen | 18,877 | 23.0% | |
| Al Olszewski | 16,686 | 20.3% | |
| Ray Curtis | 5,479 | 6.7% |
Libertarian Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sheedy ✓ | 1,202 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Montana primary guide
Race Overview
Candidates
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-06-25 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Sam Forstag 44.00% | Aaron Flint 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Is the 2026 MT-01 House race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the expert consensus rates it Likely R, meaning Republicans are clearly favored but an upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 MT-01 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Impact Research (D) (completed June 25, 2026), found Sam Forstag (D) at 44% and Aaron Flint (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 MT-01 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- AMERICAN MISSION GOP-aligned $590,428
- LEADERSHIP IN ACTION GOP-aligned $263,669
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $253,505
- MAKE MONTANA GREAT GOP-aligned $228,495
- SEAL PAC USA GOP-aligned $100,000
- SAVE AMERICA FUND Dem-aligned $70,875
- SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA GOP-aligned $20,000
- MONTANA WAY GOP-aligned $14,943
- MONTANANS FOR PUBLIC LANDS Dem-aligned $13,500
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.