Primary
Primary held June 2, 2026.
Democratic Primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Forstag ✓ | 26,276 | 37.3% | |
| Ryan Busse | 23,196 | 33.1% | |
| Russell Cleveland | 15,238 | 21.7% | |
| Matt Rains | 5,518 | 7.9% |
Libertarian Primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sheedy ✓ | 1,202 | 100.0% |
Republican Primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint ✓ | 41,170 | 50.1% | |
| Christi Jacobsen | 18,877 | 23.0% | |
| Al Olszewski | 16,686 | 20.3% | |
| Ray Curtis | 5,479 | 6.7% |
Full calendar and every race: Montana primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-06-25 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Sam Forstag 44.00% | Aaron Flint 44.00% |
| Upswing Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-05-05 | 401 LV | ±4.90 | Matt Rains 43.00% | Aaron Flint 47.00% |
| Upswing Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-05-05 | 401 LV | ±4.90 | Sam Forstag 43.00% | Aaron Flint 48.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 MT-01 House race?
Aaron Flint leads Sam Forstag 46.3% to 43.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+3.0 margin based on 3 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 MT-01 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R: Republicans are favored, but the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 MT-01 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Impact Research (D) (completed June 25, 2026), found Sam Forstag (D) at 44% and Aaron Flint (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 MT-01 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 8 hours ago
Top Spenders
- AMERICAN MISSION $590,428
- LEADERSHIP IN ACTION $263,669
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT $239,520
- MAKE MONTANA GREAT $228,495
- SEAL PAC USA $100,000
- SAVE AMERICA FUND $70,875
- MONTANA WAY $14,943
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.