Montana State University Billings
13 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 5.8 pts | D+5.8 | 100% |
| 2020 | 4 | 11.3 pts | D+11.3 | 67% |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.5 pts | D+3.5 | 100% |
| 2016 | 3 | 5.3 pts | D+3.1 | 100% |
| 2014 | 2 | 4.8 pts | D+4.8 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | MT-2 House | R+26.0 | R+36.4 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-09 | MT-1 House | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | MT-1 House | R+1.0 | R+12.8 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | MT Governor | Even | R+12.9 | 12.9 | — |
| 2020-10-21 | MT Senate | D+1.0 | R+10.0 | 11.0 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-21 | MT President | R+7.0 | R+16.4 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | MT-1 House | R+3.0 | R+4.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | MT Senate | D+9.0 | D+3.6 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-07 | MT-1 House | R+19.0 | R+15.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-07 | MT President | R+16.0 | R+20.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-07 | MT Governor | D+12.0 | D+3.9 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-08 | MT-1 House | R+7.0 | R+15.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-08 | MT Senate | R+16.1 | R+17.7 | 1.6 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.