Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alani Bankhead ✓ | 48,772 | 54.2% | |
| Reilly Neill | 36,880 | 41.0% | |
| Michael Hummert | 4,305 | 4.8% |
Republican Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme ✓ | 128,716 | 84.4% | |
| Lee Calhoun | 23,872 | 15.6% |
Libertarian Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Austin ✓ | 1,819 | 53.2% | |
| Tom Jandron | 1,592 | 46.8% |
Full calendar and every race: Montana primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Seth Bodnar Nominee
IndependentCertified Independent on the MT SOS 2026 general ballot (IND). FEC S6MT00287.
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Ind | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Insights (R) partisan·R | 2026-10-12 | 500 LV | ±4.00 | Alani Bankhead 12.00% | Seth Bodnar 29.00% | Kurt Alme 44.00% |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners partisan·D Internal | 2026-10-08 | 405 LV | ±4.90 | Alani Bankhead 13.00% | Seth Bodnar 37.00% | Kurt Alme 35.00% |
| American Pulse Research | 2026-09-24 | 604 LV | Alani Bankhead 19.00% | Seth Bodnar 26.10% | Kurt Alme 45.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Montana Senate race?
Kurt Alme leads Seth Bodnar 41.3% to 30.7% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+10.6 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Montana Senate race competitive?
The PollingSource polling average rates it Safe R. The polling average is the leader versus Seth Bodnar, the independent runner-up, not a two-party blowout.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Montana Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Peak Insights (R) (completed October 12, 2026), found Alani Bankhead (D) at 12% and Kurt Alme (R) at 44%, and Seth Bodnar (I) at 29%.
When is the 2026 Montana Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
OPEN SEAT: Daines withdrew before the primary; Kurt Alme won the Republican nomination. Two-term incumbent
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- INDEPENDENT PAC $5,685,200
- MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT Mixed $3,918,533
- MONTANA FREEDOM PAC Dem-aligned $3,779,756
- PROGRESSIVE VET PAC Dem-aligned $2,903,616
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $2,126,904
- HIGH PLAINS PAC GOP-aligned $515,000
- AMERICAN MISSION GOP-aligned $496,826
- MONTANANS FOR PUBLIC LANDS $79,317
- AB PAC $79,124
- HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF) GOP-aligned $61,000
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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