Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 11, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Johnson ✓ | 47,313 | 81.7% | |
| Alex Eaton | 10,629 | 18.3% |
Republican Primary
Held August 11, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Finstad ✓ | 50,618 | 89.0% | |
| Gregory A. Goetzman | 3,363 | 5.9% | |
| Oliver R. Morlan | 2,914 | 5.1% |
Full calendar and every race: Minnesota primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
Share
Race page
Candidates
Brad Finstad Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2026-10-12 | 565 LV | Jake Johnson 46.00% | Brad Finstad 44.00% | |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R) | 2026-03-14 | 400 LV | ±5.00 | Jake Johnson 42.00% | Brad Finstad 52.00% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D 2024 err 2.0 | 2026-02-03 | 708 RV | ±3.70 | Jake Johnson 41.00% | Brad Finstad 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 MN-01 House race?
Brad Finstad leads Jacob Johnson 46.7% to 43% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+3.7 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 MN-01 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 MN-01 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from SurveyUSA (completed October 12, 2026), found Jake Johnson (D) at 46% and Brad Finstad (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 MN-01 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 2 hours ago
Top Spenders
- YOUR COMMUNITY PAC Dem-aligned $2,327,466
- THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER PAC GOP-aligned $846,333
- AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES P E O P L E Dem-aligned $482,500
- DEFENDING MAIN STREET SUPERPAC INC. GOP-aligned $439,200
- LCV VICTORY FUND Dem-aligned $250,060
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $147,776
- TAKEACTION MN FEDERAL FUND Dem-aligned $58,244
- SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOM GOP-aligned $50,000
- MAGA INC. GOP-aligned $20,405
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $17,435
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.
Get the daily email and the spending series
We store the address and the time you agree. No email is sent yet.