New York District 21

NY-21 • 2026 Election
Back to House Races

Primary

Democratic Primary

Held June 23, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Blake Gendebien 15,186 64.7%
Stuart Amoriell 8,189 34.9%

Republican Primary

Held June 23, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Anthony Constantino 26,565 59.3%
Robert Smullen 18,028 40.2%

Full calendar and every race: New York primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Elise Stefanik)
Party
Republican
Current Rating
Toss-up our polls experts: Safe R
Open Seat
Yes
Cook PVI
R+10

PollingSource Rating

Toss-up
Our polling average R+0.7 · 3 polls

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.

</> Embed this chart on your site

Free to embed — the chart credits and links back to PollingSource.

Share X Facebook Race page

Expert Ratings

Expert Consensus Rating

Safe R

Individual forecaster ratings will be updated as they become available.

Candidates

Blake Gendebien

Blake Gendebien Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $5,461,528
Cash on Hand: $2,622,585
Anthony Thomas Constantino

Anthony Thomas Constantino Nominee

Republican
Total Raised: $9,460,254
Cash on Hand: $3,036,386

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
42.0%
Republican
42.7%
Margin
R+0.7
Last Poll
Aug 17, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
J.L. Partners partisan·R 2026-08-17 500 LV ±4.40 Blake Gendebien 40.00% Anthony Constantino 50.00%
SurveyUSA 2026-08-13 612 LV Blake Gendebien 43.00% Anthony Constantino 39.00%
SurveyUSA 2026-08-08 612 LV ±4.10 Blake Gendebien 43.00% Anthony Constantino 39.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 NY-21 House race?

Polling so far tested a matchup that is no longer live: Anthony Constantino is not the Republican nominee — Anthony Thomas Constantino is. In that earlier polling, Anthony Constantino led Blake Gendebien 42.7% to 42%. The PollingSource average resets once the final matchup is polled.

Is the 2026 NY-21 House race competitive?

Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 NY-21 House race say?

The most recent public poll, from J.L. Partners (completed August 17, 2026), found Blake Gendebien (D) at 40% and Anthony Constantino (R) at 50%.

When is the 2026 NY-21 House race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race News

No news coverage yet for this race.