New York District 21

NY-21 • 2026 Election
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Primary

Primary held June 23, 2026.

Democratic Primary

CandidateVotes%
Blake Gendebien 15,186 64.7%
Stuart Amoriell 8,189 34.9%

Republican Primary

CandidateVotes%
Anthony Constantino 26,565 59.3%
Robert Smullen 18,028 40.2%

Full calendar and every race: New York primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Elise Stefanik)
Party
Republican
Current Rating
Toss-up our polls experts: Safe R
Open Seat
Yes
Cook PVI
R+10

PollingSource Rating

Toss-up
Our polling average R+1.0 · 1 polls

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.

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Expert Ratings

Consensus Rating

Safe R

Individual forecaster ratings will be updated as they become available.

Candidates

Blake Gendebien

Blake Gendebien Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $5,461,528
Cash on Hand: $2,622,585
Anthony Constantino

Anthony Constantino Nominee

Republican
Total Raised: $9,460,254
Cash on Hand: $3,036,386

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
44.0%
Republican
45.0%
Margin
R+1.0
Last Poll
May 31, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
Impact Research (D) partisan·D 2026-05-31 500 LV ±4.40 Blake Gendebien 44.00% Anthony Constantino 45.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 NY-21 House race?

Anthony Constantino leads Blake Gendebien 45% to 44% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+1.0 margin based on 1 poll from the last 90 days.

Is the 2026 NY-21 House race competitive?

Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 NY-21 House race say?

The most recent public poll, from Impact Research (D) (completed May 31, 2026), found Blake Gendebien (D) at 44% and Anthony Constantino (R) at 45%.

When is the 2026 NY-21 House race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race News

No news coverage yet for this race.