Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 23, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Gendebien ✓ | 15,216 | 64.7% | |
| Stuart Amoriell | 8,206 | 34.9% |
Republican Primary
Held June 23, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Constantino ✓ | 26,578 | 59.3% | |
| Robert Smullen | 18,049 | 40.2% | |
| Total Write-ins | 114 | 0.5% |
Full calendar and every race: New York primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Anthony Thomas Constantino Nominee
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena University | 2026-10-06 | 496 LV | ±4.20 | Blake Gendebien 46.00% | Anthony Constantino 42.00% |
| Impact Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-10-04 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Blake Gendebien 45.00% | Anthony Constantino 48.00% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D 2024 err 2.0 D-sponsored | 2026-09-10 | 557 RV | ±4.20 | Blake Gendebien 43.00% | Anthony Constantino 48.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 NY-21 House race?
Anthony Thomas Constantino leads Blake Gendebien 46% to 44.7% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+1.3 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 NY-21 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 NY-21 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Siena University (completed October 6, 2026), found Blake Gendebien (D) at 46% and Anthony Constantino (R) at 42%.
When is the 2026 NY-21 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 2 hours ago
Top Spenders
- EDUCATORS UNITED FOR PUBLIC SCHOOLS Dem-aligned $508,709
- PATRIOTIC FUND, INC. GOP-aligned $161,737
- AMERICA FIRST WARRIOR PAC Dem-aligned $68,765
- SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOM GOP-aligned $40,000
- BLUEWAVEAMERICA Dem-aligned $39,088
- RURAL FREEDOM NETWORK Dem-aligned $27,843
- ACTIVATE AMERICA Dem-aligned $738
- SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Dem-aligned $10
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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