Impact Research partisan·D
45 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | 4.2 pts | D+2.5 | 100% |
| 2020 | 11 | 7.9 pts | D+7.9 | 50% |
| 2019 | 2 | 7.7 pts | D+7.7 | 100% |
| 2018 | 12 | 3.2 pts | D+2.1 | 92% |
| 2017 | 2 | 5.7 pts | R+1.2 | 50% |
| 2016 | 8 | 10.1 pts | D+10.1 | 50% |
| 2015 | 1 | 0.2 pts | R+0.2 | 100% |
| 2014 | 3 | 7.9 pts | D+7.9 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-25 | National Generic Ballot | R+2.0 | R+2.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-15 | OH-1 House | D+3.0 | D+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-19 | OH-1 House | D+3.0 | D+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-16 | MT-1 House | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-10 | FL-28 House | R+10.0 | R+27.4 | 17.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-09 | IA-3 House | Even | R+0.7 | 0.7 | — |
| 2020-10-18 | AR-2 House | Even | R+10.7 | 10.7 | — |
| 2020-10-02 | SC Senate | Even | R+10.3 | 10.3 | — |
| 2020-09-28 | AR-2 House | Even | R+10.7 | 10.7 | — |
| 2020-09-25 | NC Governor | D+10.0 | D+4.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | NC Senate | D+12.0 | R+1.8 | 13.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-25 | NC President | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-20 | MI President | D+8.0 | D+2.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-18 | MI-3 House | D+2.0 | R+5.9 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-18 | NV President | D+4.0 | D+2.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-16 | NJ-2 House | D+4.0 | R+5.8 | 9.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-11 | AR-2 House | R+4.0 | R+10.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2019-10-02 | LA Governor | D+16.0 | D+2.7 | 13.3 | ✓ |
| 2019-07-17 | NC-9 House | Even | R+2.0 | 2.0 | — |
| 2018-10-27 | FL-27 House | D+10.0 | D+6.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-18 | MI Governor | D+11.0 | D+9.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | FL-27 House | D+5.0 | D+6.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-12 | MI-11 House | D+10.0 | D+6.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-11 | MI Governor | D+10.0 | D+9.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | MI-11 House | D+5.0 | D+6.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-27 | MI Governor | D+12.0 | D+9.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-23 | IL Governor | D+16.0 | D+15.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-22 | SD Governor | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-18 | TX-31 House | R+4.0 | R+2.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | MI Governor | D+7.0 | D+9.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-07 | MN-7 House | D+18.0 | D+4.3 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 2017-05-24 | SC-5 House | R+10.0 | R+3.1 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-04-25 | GA-6 House | D+1.0 | R+3.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-14 | CA-10 House | D+5.0 | R+3.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-12 | UT-4 House | R+10.0 | R+12.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | VA-5 House | R+6.0 | R+16.7 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | MI-1 House | D+1.0 | R+14.8 | 15.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-03 | FL-13 House | D+11.0 | D+3.8 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-29 | OH President | D+2.0 | R+8.1 | 10.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-29 | OH Senate | R+12.0 | R+20.9 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-12 | MI-1 House | D+2.0 | R+14.8 | 16.8 | ✗ |
| 2015-10-27 | LA Governor | D+12.0 | D+12.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-08 | KS-2 House | R+10.0 | R+18.4 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-05 | KS-2 House | R+5.0 | R+18.4 | 13.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-23 | FL-2 House | D+3.0 | D+1.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.