Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Wellman ✓ | 39,327 | 45.9% | |
| Joan VonDras | 36,906 | 43.0% | |
| Timothy D. Bilash | 9,547 | 11.1% |
Republican Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Wagner ✓ | 63,637 | 73.9% | |
| Peter A. Pfeifer | 6,847 | 8.0% | |
| Brandon Wilkinson | 6,046 | 7.0% | |
| Matthew R. Grant | 2,372 | 6.5% |
Full calendar and every race: Missouri primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Ann Wagner Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-15 | 565 LV | Fred Wellman 42.00% | Ann Wagner 43.00% | |
| FM3 Research (D) | 2026-05-31 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Fred Wellman 41.00% | Ann Wagner 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 MO-02 House race?
Ann Wagner leads Frederick Wellman 43.5% to 41.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+2.0 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 MO-02 House race competitive?
No — the expert consensus rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 MO-02 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Remington Research Group (R) (completed September 15, 2026), found Fred Wellman (D) at 42% and Ann Wagner (R) at 43%.
When is the 2026 MO-02 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
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