Race Overview
Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history.
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-29 | 593 | ±4.90 | Matt Schultz 39.00% | Nick Begich III 51.00% |
| Tavern Research (D) | 2026-05-27 | 452 | ±7.20 | Matt Schultz 45.00% | Nick Begich III 55.00% |
| Tavern Research (D) | 2026-05-27 | 452 | ±7.20 | Generic Democrat 45.00% | Nick Begich III 55.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 AK-AL House race?
Nick Begich III leads Matt Schultz 53.7% to 43% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+10.7 margin based on 3 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 AK-AL House race competitive?
No — the PollingSource polling average rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 AK-AL House race say?
The most recent public poll, from New York Times/Siena University (completed June 29, 2026), found Matt Schultz (D) at 39% and Nick Begich III (R) at 51%.
When is the 2026 AK-AL House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Defeated Peltola 2024; ranked-choice voting state