Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schultz | 10,195 | 8.1% | |
| Eric Hafner | 4,766 | 3.8% | |
| John B. Williams | 3,192 | 2.5% | |
| Yaquelin Reynoso | 2,248 | 1.8% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Begich | 58,133 | 46.2% | |
| Clay Strickland | 2,933 | 2.3% | |
| Eddie Goldfarb | 738 | 0.6% |
Libertarian Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| James C. “Jim” McDermott | 1,557 | 1.2% | |
| John E. Sr. Foddrill | 272 | 0.2% |
Nonpartisan Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hill | 39,113 | 31.1% | |
| Melanie A. Salazar | 874 | 0.7% | |
| Lady Donna Dutchess | 504 | 0.4% | |
| David Richey | 437 | 0.4% | |
| David R. II Ambrose | 366 | 0.3% |
Undeclared Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew “Bronco” Williams | 450 | 0.4% |
Full calendar and every race: Alaska primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center | 2026-07-16 | 705 LV | ±3.70 | Matt Schultz 32.00% | Nick Begich III 46.00% |
| Tavern Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-05-27 | 452 LV | ±7.20 | Matt Schultz 45.00% | Nick Begich III 55.00% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D 2024 err 2.0 | 2026-02-12 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Matt Schultz 39.00% | Nick Begich III 46.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 AK-AL House race?
Nick Begich III leads Matthew Damian Schultz 49% to 38.7% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+10.3 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 AK-AL House race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the expert consensus rates it Likely R, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 AK-AL House race say?
The most recent public poll, from The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center (completed July 16, 2026), found Matt Schultz (D) at 32% and Nick Begich III (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 AK-AL House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Defeated Peltola 2024; ranked-choice voting state
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- WHEEL DOG PAC Dem-aligned $5,836,290
- CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION GOP-aligned $2,010,392
- HMP Dem-aligned $866,393
- YOUR COMMUNITY PAC Dem-aligned $786,284
- DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS GOP-aligned $508,142
- FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND GOP-aligned $490,839
- AMERICA FIRST AGRICULTURE ACTION INC. GOP-aligned $378,246
- CORNERSTONE FOUNDERS PAC Dem-aligned $356,500
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $260,098
- 907 INITIATIVE ACTION Dem-aligned $240,785
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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