Primary
Primary held June 23, 2026 — results pending.
Full calendar and every race: New York primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — newest qualifying poll of the locked matchup (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the newest qualifying poll of the locked matchup (n=1), not a 30-day mean; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) partisan·D D-sponsored | 2026-07-26 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Pat Ryan 53.00% | Jacqueline Auringer 39.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 NY-18 House race?
Polling so far tested a matchup that is no longer live: Jacqueline Auringer is not the Republican nominee — Jackie Mary Auringer is. In that earlier polling, Pat Ryan led Jacqueline Auringer 53% to 39%. The PollingSource average resets once the final matchup is polled.
Is the 2026 NY-18 House race competitive?
Yes — the expert consensus rates it Lean D, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 NY-18 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Global Strategy Group (D) (completed July 26, 2026), found Pat Ryan (D) at 53% and Jacqueline Auringer (R) at 39%.
When is the 2026 NY-18 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the newest qualifying scientific public poll of the locked matchup — there were no scientific polls in the last 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- NEW YORK STATE COMMITTEE OF THE WORKING FAMILIES PARTY Dem-aligned $875
- PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES Dem-aligned $62
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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