Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 23, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Ryan ✓ | — | — |
Republican Primary
Held June 23, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Mary Auringer ✓ | — | — |
Full calendar and every race: New York primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) partisan·D D-sponsored | 2026-07-26 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Pat Ryan 53.00% | Jacqueline Auringer 39.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 NY-18 House race?
Pat Ryan leads Jackie Mary Auringer 53% to 39% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+14.0 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 NY-18 House race competitive?
No — the expert consensus rates it Safe D for Democrats.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 NY-18 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Global Strategy Group (D) (completed July 26, 2026), found Pat Ryan (D) at 53% and Jacqueline Auringer (R) at 39%.
When is the 2026 NY-18 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 3 hours ago
Top Spenders
- NEW YORK STATE COMMITTEE OF THE WORKING FAMILIES PARTY Dem-aligned $875
- PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES Dem-aligned $62
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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