Global Strategy Group partisan·D
50 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7 | 3.1 pts | R+1.8 | 83% |
| 2021 | 1 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 0% |
| 2020 | 10 | 6.3 pts | D+6.2 | 75% |
| 2018 | 10 | 4.0 pts | D+2.5 | 90% |
| 2016 | 11 | 6.8 pts | D+6.7 | 82% |
| 2014 | 11 | 6.8 pts | D+6.8 | 64% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-26 | NY-22 House | D+2.0 | D+6.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-13 | CO-8 House | R+2.0 | D+0.7 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-08 | CO Governor | D+18.0 | D+19.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-08 | CO Senate | D+11.0 | D+14.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-23 | NM-2 House | D+2.0 | D+0.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-17 | NY-22 House | D+1.0 | D+6.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-16 | NC Senate | Even | R+3.2 | 3.2 | — |
| 2021-09-18 | VA Governor | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-08 | NY-18 House | D+18.0 | D+12.6 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-06 | VA-5 House | D+2.0 | R+5.1 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-03 | PA-1 House | R+2.0 | R+13.1 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-29 | VA-5 House | D+3.0 | R+5.1 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-26 | FL-16 House | R+6.0 | R+11.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | N2 President | D+6.0 | D+6.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | NE-2 House | Even | R+4.6 | 4.6 | — |
| 2020-09-12 | VA-5 House | R+1.0 | R+5.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | TX-3 House | R+1.0 | R+12.2 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | MI-3 House | Even | R+5.9 | 5.9 | — |
| 2018-10-11 | MN-2 House | D+9.0 | D+5.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-11 | ME-2 House | D+6.0 | D+1.3 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-08 | VA-10 House | D+10.0 | D+12.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-05 | IL-12 House | R+1.0 | R+6.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-28 | FL-18 House | R+3.0 | R+8.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-21 | WV Senate | D+12.0 | D+3.3 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-16 | CA-45 House | D+3.0 | D+4.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-15 | MN-2 House | D+8.0 | D+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-14 | NY-1 House | R+3.0 | D+1.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-13 | FL-18 House | R+6.0 | R+8.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-17 | AZ-1 House | D+10.0 | D+7.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-15 | NV-3 House | D+7.0 | D+1.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | WV President | R+27.0 | R+42.1 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | WV Governor | D+10.0 | D+6.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | KS-3 House | R+4.0 | R+10.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-03 | FL-10 House | D+38.0 | D+29.7 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | IN-9 House | R+2.0 | R+13.7 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-24 | AZ-1 House | D+7.0 | D+7.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-16 | NE-2 House | D+10.0 | R+1.2 | 11.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-08 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+1.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-08 | FL Senate | R+2.0 | R+7.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | NY-18 House | D+6.0 | D+5.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | NY-24 House | D+5.0 | R+10.5 | 15.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-20 | HI-1 House | D+7.0 | D+3.9 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | NY-19 House | R+10.0 | R+19.8 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-13 | NV Governor | R+44.0 | R+46.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-05 | HI Governor | D+12.0 | D+12.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-17 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-10 | NH Senate | D+7.0 | D+3.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-08 | AR-2 House | D+3.0 | R+8.3 | 11.3 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-06 | MN-7 House | D+24.0 | D+8.6 | 15.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-06 | IL Governor | D+3.0 | R+3.9 | 6.9 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.