Change Research partisan·D
152 scored general-election polls (2017–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | 5.2 pts | D+3.8 | 100% |
| 2020 | 79 | 5.7 pts | D+5.4 | 73% |
| 2018 | 60 | 5.6 pts | D+1.7 | 84% |
| 2017 | 9 | 4.6 pts | R+3.7 | 56% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-03 | National Generic Ballot | R+1.0 | R+2.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | IA Senate | R+3.0 | R+12.2 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-12 | MN Governor | D+5.0 | D+7.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-25 | IA Senate | R+5.0 | R+12.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-11-01 | MO-2 House | Even | R+6.4 | 6.4 | — |
| 2020-10-31 | N2 President | D+3.0 | D+6.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | M2 President | D+1.0 | R+7.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-31 | M1 President | D+21.0 | D+23.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | OK-5 House | Even | R+4.1 | 4.1 | — |
| 2020-10-31 | OH-1 House | R+2.0 | R+7.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | NY-24 House | D+2.0 | R+2.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-31 | NE-2 House | D+1.0 | R+4.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-31 | ME-2 House | D+9.0 | D+6.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | IN-5 House | Even | R+4.1 | 4.1 | — |
| 2020-10-31 | AR-2 House | Even | R+10.7 | 10.7 | — |
| 2020-10-31 | MT Governor | R+4.0 | R+12.9 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.8 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-31 | MT Senate | R+4.0 | R+10.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | MI Senate | D+5.0 | D+1.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | ME Senate | D+8.0 | R+8.6 | 16.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-31 | IA Senate | D+1.0 | R+6.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-31 | AZ Senate | D+4.0 | D+2.4 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | WI President | D+8.0 | D+0.6 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | PA President | D+4.0 | D+1.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-31 | MT President | R+5.0 | R+16.4 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | MI President | D+7.0 | D+2.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | ME President | D+12.0 | D+9.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | IA President | Even | R+8.2 | 8.2 | — |
| 2020-10-31 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-31 | AZ President | D+3.0 | D+0.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | FL-15 House | R+2.0 | R+10.8 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | NC Senate | D+6.0 | R+1.8 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-18 | MI Senate | D+5.0 | D+1.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | AZ Senate | D+11.0 | D+2.4 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | AK Senate | R+3.0 | R+12.7 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | WI President | D+8.0 | D+0.6 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | PA President | D+2.0 | D+1.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | NC President | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-18 | MI President | D+7.0 | D+2.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | FL President | D+5.0 | R+3.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-18 | AZ President | D+6.0 | D+0.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | IA-4 House | R+5.0 | R+24.2 | 19.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | MN Senate | D+4.0 | D+5.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | MN President | D+5.0 | D+7.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-07 | FL-16 House | R+3.0 | R+11.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.8 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-03 | MI Senate | D+8.0 | D+1.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | AZ Senate | D+8.0 | D+2.4 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | WI President | D+7.0 | D+0.6 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | PA President | D+4.0 | D+1.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-03 | MI President | D+8.0 | D+2.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | FL President | D+4.0 | R+3.4 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-03 | AZ President | D+6.0 | D+0.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | MD President | D+29.0 | D+33.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-29 | National President | D+13.0 | D+4.4 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | NC Senate | D+5.0 | R+1.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-19 | MI Senate | D+6.0 | D+1.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | AZ Senate | D+8.0 | D+2.4 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | WI President | D+9.0 | D+0.6 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | PA President | D+4.0 | D+1.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-19 | MI President | D+8.0 | D+2.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-19 | AZ President | D+6.0 | D+0.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | National President | D+9.0 | D+4.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | IN Governor | R+6.0 | R+24.5 | 18.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | NC Senate | D+7.0 | R+1.8 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-05 | MI Senate | D+4.0 | D+1.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | AZ Senate | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | WI President | D+6.0 | D+0.6 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | PA President | D+4.0 | D+1.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-05 | MI President | D+6.0 | D+2.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | IN President | R+14.0 | R+16.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-05 | AZ President | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | National President | D+6.0 | D+4.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-25 | MS Senate | R+5.0 | R+7.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | WY-1 House | R+27.0 | R+33.8 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | VA-2 House | Even | D+2.2 | 2.2 | — |
| 2018-11-03 | SD-1 House | R+10.0 | R+24.3 | 14.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | OH-4 House | R+24.0 | R+30.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | OH-1 House | R+3.0 | R+4.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | NC-13 House | Even | R+6.0 | 6.0 | — |
| 2018-11-03 | MT-1 House | R+8.0 | R+4.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | MI-8 House | D+1.0 | D+3.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | MI-6 House | D+2.0 | R+4.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-03 | GA-6 House | D+6.0 | D+1.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | WY Governor | R+34.0 | R+39.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | SD Governor | D+6.0 | R+3.4 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-03 | PA Governor | D+11.0 | D+17.1 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | OH Governor | D+5.0 | R+3.7 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-03 | MN Governor | D+12.0 | D+11.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | MI Governor | D+8.0 | D+9.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | IA Governor | D+3.0 | R+2.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-03 | ID Governor | R+16.0 | R+21.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | CA Governor | D+12.0 | D+23.9 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | MN Senate | D+9.0 | D+10.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | WY Senate | R+29.0 | R+36.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | PA Senate | D+7.0 | D+13.1 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | OH Senate | D+10.0 | D+6.9 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | NJ Senate | D+10.0 | D+11.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | MT Senate | R+3.0 | D+3.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-03 | MS Senate | R+8.0 | R+19.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | MN Senate | D+15.0 | D+24.1 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | MI Senate | D+2.0 | D+6.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | CA Senate | D+10.0 | D+8.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | TX Senate | Even | R+2.6 | 2.6 | — |
| 2018-11-01 | FL Senate | D+2.0 | R+0.1 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-28 | WI-6 House | R+2.0 | R+11.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | OH-2 House | R+13.0 | R+16.4 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | NY-1 House | R+15.0 | D+1.0 | 16.0 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-28 | MI-6 House | R+3.0 | R+4.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | MI-1 House | R+12.0 | R+12.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | KS-2 House | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | IN-9 House | R+7.0 | R+13.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | IN-5 House | R+6.0 | R+13.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | IL-16 House | R+14.0 | R+18.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | IA-4 House | R+1.0 | R+3.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | FL-18 House | R+9.0 | R+8.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | CO-3 House | R+15.0 | R+8.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | NH Governor | R+1.0 | R+7.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | OH-7 House | R+6.0 | R+17.5 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-24 | NE-1 House | R+16.0 | R+20.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-23 | NY-23 House | R+2.0 | R+5.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | WI-1 House | D+1.0 | R+12.3 | 13.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-20 | CA-22 House | R+5.0 | R+5.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-12 | MN Governor | D+3.0 | D+11.4 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-12 | MN Senate | D+3.0 | D+10.6 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-12 | MN Senate | D+9.0 | D+24.1 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | AZ Governor | R+7.6 | R+14.2 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | AZ Senate | D+0.2 | D+2.3 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-04 | WI-1 House | R+2.5 | R+12.3 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-30 | ME Governor | D+8.0 | D+7.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-27 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-27 | VA-2 House | R+0.5 | D+2.2 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-11 | FL-19 House | R+9.0 | R+24.6 | 15.6 | ✓ |
| 2017-12-10 | AL Senate | R+6.0 | D+1.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-12-06 | AL Senate | R+7.0 | D+1.6 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-11-26 | AL Senate | R+5.0 | D+1.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-11-15 | AL Senate | D+3.0 | D+1.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-10 | AL Senate | R+4.0 | D+1.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-11-03 | NJ Governor | D+16.0 | D+14.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-03 | VA Governor | D+6.0 | D+8.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-06-16 | SC-5 House | R+9.0 | R+3.1 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-05-22 | MT-1 House | R+5.0 | R+5.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.