Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Jolly ✓ | 761,674 | 61.0% | |
| Dayna Marie Foster | 189,234 | 15.1% | |
| Dotie Joseph | 119,837 | 9.6% | |
| Evelyn Castillo-Bach | 96,602 | 7.7% | |
| Thomas Eloy Fernandez | 47,301 | 3.8% | |
| Stephann Norman | 34,940 | 2.8% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds ✓ | 811,146 | 47.8% | |
| Jay Collins | 426,787 | 25.2% | |
| James Fishback | 177,674 | 10.5% | |
| Paul Renner | 144,989 | 8.5% | |
| Bobby Williams | 69,080 | 4.1% | |
| Rachel Rodriguez | 27,615 | 1.6% | |
| Jim Holcomb | 13,174 | 0.8% | |
| James W. Shaw | 7,891 | 0.5% | |
| Arthur Joseph McCaffrey | 7,053 | 0.4% | |
| Caneste Succe | 6,291 | 0.4% | |
| Daniel Nokovich | 5,212 | 0.3% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
David Jolly Nominee
Democrat
Byron Donalds Nominee
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
LV = likely voters · RV = registered voters · ± = margin of error · R-sponsored / D-sponsored / I-sponsored = paid for by a Republican, Democratic, or Independent group · "missed 2024 by X pts" = that firm's average miss in 2024
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RedBox Research In average | 2026-10-23 this poll | 4832 LV | ±2.50 | David Jolly 44.00% | Byron Donalds 49.00% |
| co/efficient R-sponsored In average | 2026-10-20 this poll | 1014 LV | ±3.10 | David Jolly 40.00% | Byron Donalds 49.00% |
| ActiVote In average | 2026-10-19 this poll | 400 LV | ±4.90 | David Jolly 48.30% | Byron Donalds 51.70% |
| University of North Florida Not in average | 2026-10-19 this poll | 1471 LV | ±2.80 | David Jolly 47.00% | Byron Donalds 49.00% |
| Univision/YouGov Not in average | 2026-10-15 this poll | 825 RV | ±3.90 | David Jolly 42.00% | Byron Donalds 50.00% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) R-sponsored Not in average | 2026-10-11 this poll | 1200 LV | David Jolly 43.00% | Byron Donalds 49.00% | |
| MDW Communications D-sponsored Not in average | 2026-10-10 this poll | 2351 LV | ±2.80 | David Jolly 44.00% | Byron Donalds 46.00% |
| Change Research D-sponsored Not in average | 2026-10-10 this poll | 920 LV | ±3.10 | David Jolly 47.00% | Byron Donalds 47.00% |
| Stetson University Not in average | 2026-10-09 this poll | 716 LV | ±4.20 | David Jolly 41.00% | Byron Donalds 52.00% |
| St. Pete Polls Not in average | 2026-10-07 this poll | 836 LV | ±3.40 | David Jolly 45.00% | Byron Donalds 45.00% |
| YouGov Not in average | 2026-10-05 this poll | 3813 LV | ±2.70 | David Jolly 45.00% | Byron Donalds 47.00% |
| Targoz Market Research Not in average | 2026-10-04 this poll | 857 LV | David Jolly 42.00% | Byron Donalds 52.00% | |
| James Madison Institute Not in average | 2026-10-04 this poll | 1174 LV | ±2.80 | David Jolly 42.00% | Byron Donalds 52.00% |
| Mason-Dixon Not in average | 2026-10-01 this poll | 625 RV | ±4.00 | David Jolly 41.00% | Byron Donalds 48.00% |
| Change Research D-sponsored Not in average | 2026-09-28 this poll | 1063 LV | ±2.80 | David Jolly 48.00% | Byron Donalds 47.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Florida governor's race?
Byron Donalds leads David Jolly 49.9% to 44.1% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+5.8 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Florida governor's race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Florida governor's race say?
The most recent poll in our average, from RedBox Research (completed October 23, 2026), found David Jolly (D) at 44% and Byron Donalds (R) at 49%.
When is the 2026 Florida governor's race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Term-limited, open seat
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