Targoz Market Research
29 scored general-election polls (2018–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8 | 4.8 pts | R+4.8 | 63% |
| 2021 | 1 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 0% |
| 2020 | 11 | 5.4 pts | D+4.4 | 80% |
| 2019 | 3 | 8.0 pts | D+8.0 | 100% |
| 2018 | 6 | 7.2 pts | D+5.7 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-04 | PA Governor | D+6.0 | D+14.8 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | OH Governor | R+30.0 | R+25.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | GA Governor | R+14.0 | R+7.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | AZ Governor | R+2.0 | D+0.7 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-04 | PA Senate | R+5.0 | D+4.9 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-04 | OH Senate | R+7.0 | R+6.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | GA Senate | R+2.0 | D+1.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-04 | AZ Senate | D+3.0 | D+4.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2021-10-29 | VA Governor | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2021-01-01 | GA Senate | Even | D+1.2 | 1.2 | — |
| 2021-01-01 | GA Senate | D+2.0 | D+2.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | MN Senate | D+9.0 | D+5.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | MI Senate | D+11.0 | D+1.7 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | PA President | D+14.0 | D+1.2 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | MN President | D+9.0 | D+7.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | MI President | D+14.0 | D+2.8 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | FL President | D+3.7 | R+3.4 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-27 | AZ Senate | D+10.0 | D+2.4 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-27 | AZ President | R+1.0 | D+0.3 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-04 | National President | D+1.2 | D+4.4 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2019-11-10 | LA Governor | D+4.0 | D+2.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2019-10-17 | KY Governor | D+19.0 | D+0.4 | 18.6 | ✓ |
| 2019-10-17 | MS Governor | R+1.0 | R+5.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | TN Governor | R+9.0 | R+21.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | FL Governor | R+1.0 | R+0.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | TN Senate | Even | R+10.8 | 10.8 | — |
| 2018-10-30 | FL Senate | R+4.0 | R+0.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-11 | TN Governor | R+12.0 | R+21.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-11 | TN Senate | R+4.0 | R+10.8 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.