Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angie Nixon ✓ | 705,192 | 56.0% | |
| Alex Vindman | 553,374 | 44.0% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody ✓ | 1,320,048 | 79.6% | |
| Chris Gleason | 227,843 | 13.7% | |
| Ernest "Ernie" Rivera | 79,946 | 4.8% | |
| Neelam Taneja Perry | 31,279 | 1.9% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Each point is a poll. The published PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days.
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General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-10-07 | 836 LV | ±3.40 | Angie Nixon 45.00% | Ashley Moody 47.00% |
| YouGov | 2026-10-05 | 3813 LV | ±2.70 | Angie Nixon 44.00% | Ashley Moody 49.00% |
| James Madison Institute | 2026-10-04 | 1171 LV | ±2.80 | Angie Nixon 42.00% | Ashley Moody 52.00% |
| Mason-Dixon | 2026-10-01 | 625 LV | ±4.00 | Angie Nixon 40.00% | Ashley Moody 50.00% |
| Change Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-09-27 | 1063 LV | ±2.80 | Angie Nixon 47.00% | Ashley Moody 48.00% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) ±1.9 | 2026-09-21 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Angie Nixon 42.00% | Ashley Moody 49.00% |
| Stetson University | 2026-09-21 | 830 LV | ±4.30 | Angie Nixon 40.00% | Ashley Moody 51.00% |
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-09-17 | 913 LV | ±3.20 | Angie Nixon 45.00% | Ashley Moody 45.00% |
| St Pete | 2026-09-17 | LV | Angie Nixon 44.80% | Ashley Moody 45.20% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon 49.5% to 42.8% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+6.7 margin based on 4 polls from the most recent week of polls ending in the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 Florida Senate race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely R, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Florida Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from St. Pete Polls (completed October 7, 2026), found Angie Nixon (D) at 45% and Ashley Moody (R) at 47%.
When is the 2026 Florida Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This is a special election.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of scientific public polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days. One poll in that week is the average. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists the polls from that window. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
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