Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angie Nixon ✓ | 705,192 | 56.0% | |
| Alex Vindman | 553,374 | 44.0% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody ✓ | 1,320,048 | 79.6% | |
| Chris Gleason | 227,843 | 13.7% | |
| Ernest "Ernie" Rivera | 79,946 | 4.8% | |
| Neelam Taneja Perry | 31,279 | 1.9% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
Candidates
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida | 2026-07-17 | 848 LV | ±3.80 | Angie Nixon 42.00% | Ashley Moody 50.00% |
| University of North Florida | 2026-06-07 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | Angie Nixon 40.00% | Ashley Moody 47.00% |
Questions About This Race
Is the 2026 Florida Senate race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the expert consensus rates it Likely R, meaning Republicans are clearly favored but an upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Florida Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from University of North Florida (completed July 17, 2026), found Angie Nixon (D) at 42% and Ashley Moody (R) at 50%.
When is the 2026 Florida Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This is a special election.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Rubio resigned for cabinet position