Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angie Nixon ✓ | 705,192 | 56.0% | |
| Alex Vindman | 553,374 | 44.0% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody ✓ | 1,320,048 | 79.6% | |
| Chris Gleason | 227,843 | 13.7% | |
| Ernest "Ernie" Rivera | 79,946 | 4.8% | |
| Neelam Taneja Perry | 31,279 | 1.9% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 2026-10-15 | 400 LV | ±4.90 | Angie Nixon 47.00% | Ashley Moody 53.00% |
| MDW Communications partisan·D | 2026-10-10 | 2351 LV | ±2.80 | Angie Nixon 42.00% | Ashley Moody 48.00% |
| Stetson University | 2026-10-09 | 716 LV | ±4.20 | Angie Nixon 41.00% | Ashley Moody 52.00% |
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-10-07 | 836 LV | ±3.40 | Angie Nixon 45.00% | Ashley Moody 47.00% |
| YouGov | 2026-10-05 | 3813 LV | ±2.70 | Angie Nixon 44.00% | Ashley Moody 49.00% |
| James Madison Institute | 2026-10-04 | 1171 LV | ±2.80 | Angie Nixon 42.00% | Ashley Moody 52.00% |
| Mason-Dixon | 2026-10-01 | 625 LV | ±4.00 | Angie Nixon 40.00% | Ashley Moody 50.00% |
| Change Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-09-27 | 1063 LV | ±2.80 | Angie Nixon 47.00% | Ashley Moody 48.00% |
| Stetson University | 2026-09-21 | 830 LV | ±4.30 | Angie Nixon 40.00% | Ashley Moody 51.00% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) 2024 err 1.9 | 2026-09-21 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Angie Nixon 42.00% | Ashley Moody 49.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon 51% to 43.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+7.7 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Florida Senate race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely R, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Florida Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from ActiVote (completed October 15, 2026), found Angie Nixon (D) at 47% and Ashley Moody (R) at 53%.
When is the 2026 Florida Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This is a special election.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
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