St. Pete Polls
32 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 7.5 pts | D+7.5 | 100% |
| 2020 | 9 | 6.1 pts | D+6.1 | 44% |
| 2018 | 14 | 2.6 pts | D+2.1 | 43% |
| 2016 | 5 | 2.2 pts | R+1.2 | 80% |
| 2014 | 3 | 1.5 pts | D+1.5 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-26 | FL-13 House | R+0.6 | R+8.1 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | FL President | D+1.1 | R+3.4 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-28 | FL-13 House | D+16.2 | D+6.1 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | FL President | D+1.5 | R+3.4 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-15 | FL-15 House | R+8.0 | R+10.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | FL President | D+2.0 | R+3.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-02 | FL-21 House | D+28.0 | D+19.9 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-21 | FL President | D+3.2 | R+3.4 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-18 | FL-18 House | R+8.0 | R+14.8 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-07 | FL President | D+2.5 | R+3.4 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-05 | FL-15 House | R+1.9 | R+6.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | FL Governor | D+4.1 | R+0.4 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-03 | FL Senate | D+3.7 | R+0.1 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-01 | FL Governor | D+2.1 | R+0.4 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-01 | FL Senate | R+1.6 | R+0.1 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | FL Senate | D+1.9 | R+0.1 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-20 | FL Governor | D+1.0 | R+0.4 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-20 | FL Senate | R+0.3 | R+0.1 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-15 | FL Governor | D+1.1 | R+0.4 | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-15 | FL Senate | R+1.4 | R+0.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | FL-16 House | R+7.1 | R+9.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-29 | FL Governor | D+2.0 | R+0.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-29 | FL Senate | D+0.7 | R+0.1 | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-19 | FL-6 House | R+5.0 | R+12.6 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-06 | FL-13 House | D+5.0 | D+3.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | FL-13 House | D+3.0 | D+3.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-23 | FL-13 House | D+3.0 | D+3.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | FL-13 House | D+5.0 | D+3.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-18 | FL-13 House | R+3.0 | D+3.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-17 | FL Governor | D+1.4 | R+1.1 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-10 | FL Governor | R+1.0 | R+1.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-02-25 | FL-13 House | Even | R+1.9 | 1.9 | — |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.