co/efficient partisan·R
24 scored general-election polls (2019–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | 0.6 pts | D+0.3 | 100% |
| 2022 | 14 | 6.2 pts | R+6.1 | 62% |
| 2021 | 1 | 2.1 pts | R+2.1 | 100% |
| 2020 | 6 | 3.3 pts | D+0.5 | 100% |
| 2019 | 1 | 2.0 pts | D+2.0 | — |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | SC-1 House | 837 LV | Nancy Lacore 40.00% – Honeycutt 46.00% | R+6.0 |
| 2026-09-30 | NE Governor | 1113 LV | Lynne Walz 38.00% – Jim Pillen 43.00% | R+5.0 |
| 2026-09-30 | VA-6 House | 791 LV | Beth Macy 29.00% – Ben Cline 59.00% | R+30.0 |
| 2026-09-30 | ME Governor | 1240 LV | Hannah Pingree 47.00% – Bobby Charles 38.00% | D+9.0 |
| 2026-09-30 | ME Senate | 1240 LV | Troy Jackson 46.00% – Susan Collins 48.00% | R+2.0 |
| 2026-09-23 | MI Senate | 843 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 45.00% – Mike Rogers 45.00% | Even |
| 2026-09-23 | MI Governor | 843 LV | Jocelyn Benson 47.00% – John James 44.00% | D+3.0 |
| 2026-09-17 | AK Governor | 799 LV | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 43.00% – Bernadette Wilson 20.00% | D+23.0 |
| 2026-09-17 | AK Senate | 799 LV | Mary Peltola 46.00% – Dan S. Sullivan 48.00% | R+2.0 |
| 2026-09-17 | CT Governor | 979 LV | Ned Lamont 48.00% – Ryan Fazio 41.00% | D+7.0 |
| 2026-09-16 | IA Governor | 831 LV | Rob Sand 46.00% – Zach Lahn 42.00% | D+4.0 |
| 2026-09-16 | IA Senate | 831 LV | Josh Turek 42.00% – Ashley Hinson 46.00% | R+4.0 |
| 2026-09-15 | MN Governor | 833 LV | Amy Klobuchar 47.00% – Lisa Demuth 45.00% | D+2.0 |
| 2026-09-15 | MN Senate | 833 LV | Peggy Flanagan 43.00% – Michele Tafoya 42.00% | D+1.0 |
| 2026-09-11 | NH Senate | 958 LV | Chris Pappas 46.00% – John E. Sununu 46.00% | Even |
| 2026-09-11 | NH Governor | 958 LV | Cinde Warmington 34.00% – Kelly Ayotte 55.00% | R+21.0 |
| 2026-09-10 | KS Senate | 915 LV | Adam Hamilton 44.00% – Roger Marshall 49.00% | R+5.0 |
| 2026-09-10 | KS Governor | 915 LV | Cindy Holscher 43.00% – Ty Masterson 51.00% | R+8.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-06 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-09-06 | PA President | R+2.0 | R+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-05 | CO Governor | D+12.0 | D+19.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-05 | CO Senate | D+8.0 | D+14.6 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-27 | PA Governor | D+10.0 | D+14.8 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-27 | PA Senate | R+3.0 | D+4.9 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-25 | NH-2 House | R+1.0 | D+11.7 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-25 | NH-1 House | D+4.0 | D+8.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-25 | NH Governor | R+18.0 | R+15.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-25 | NH Senate | Even | D+9.1 | 9.1 | — |
| 2022-10-24 | GA Senate | R+3.4 | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-24 | CO Senate | D+15.5 | D+14.6 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-20 | AZ Governor | R+3.3 | D+0.7 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-20 | AZ Senate | D+1.8 | D+4.9 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-19 | WA Senate | D+3.0 | D+14.5 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-18 | NY Governor | R+1.0 | D+7.3 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 2021-10-20 | VA Governor | R+4.0 | R+1.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | KS Senate | R+12.0 | R+11.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | VT President | D+30.0 | D+35.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | KS President | R+17.0 | R+14.7 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-13 | PA-8 House | D+5.0 | D+3.6 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | KS Senate | R+4.0 | R+11.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | KS President | R+12.0 | R+14.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2019-09-05 | NC-9 House | Even | R+2.0 | 2.0 | — |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.