Fabrizio, Lee & Associates partisan·R
15 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10 | 4.2 pts | R+3.4 | 89% |
| 2020 | 1 | 0.4 pts | R+0.4 | 100% |
| 2018 | 1 | 5.3 pts | R+5.3 | 0% |
| 2015 | 1 | 11.7 pts | D+11.7 | 0% |
| 2014 | 2 | 3.0 pts | D+2.9 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-25 | CT-5 House | Even | D+0.2 | 0.2 | — |
| 2022-10-25 | CT-4 House | D+16.0 | D+19.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-25 | CT-2 House | D+22.0 | D+18.1 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-25 | AZ Governor | R+3.0 | D+0.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-25 | AZ Senate | D+1.0 | D+4.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-18 | NH Governor | R+17.0 | R+15.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-18 | NH Senate | D+2.0 | D+9.1 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-12 | CT Governor | D+6.0 | D+11.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-12 | CT Senate | D+5.0 | D+13.1 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-26 | IL Governor | D+8.0 | D+12.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | AZ Senate | D+2.0 | D+2.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-17 | WV Senate | R+2.0 | D+3.3 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2015-10-14 | KY Governor | D+3.0 | R+8.7 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-28 | IL Governor | D+2.0 | R+3.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-02-17 | FL-13 House | R+2.0 | R+1.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.